MELBOURNE, Australia — Jessica Pegula‘s Australian Open campaign through the first three rounds had been built on unrivaled composure and smart tennis. On Monday, she added something else: a statement.
The world No. 6 didn’t just beat defending champion and close friend Madison Keys on Rod Laver Arena, she completely dismantled her game with intelligence and discipline, showing a level of tactical nous that feels every bit like a player who is ready to win a Grand Slam.
The 31-year-old advanced to the quarterfinals in Melbourne with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over 9th-seed Keys to extend her flawless run — and is still yet to drop a set all tournament.
This was already the most intriguing matchup of the day. It was set up as a clash between Keys’ explosive, powerful shot making versus Pegula’s efficiency. What unfolded was, well, that, but also something a bit more telling. It was a lesson in how to combat an opponent’s strengths with shape, variety and pressure.
“[I’m] happy with the way I was able to serve I think on some really big, key points, execute my strategy,” Pegula said after the match.
“I have been seeing, hitting, moving, I feel like very well this whole tournament, and to be able to keep that up against such a great player as Madi and defending champion was going to be a lot tougher of a task today, but I think I was still able to do that really well.”
From the opening games of the first set, Pegula’s intent was clear. She was always on the front foot, stepping forward on the Keys serve to break early, and had service games with impeccable placement to constantly force movement in her opponent, rather than allowing Keys to plant herself and get the upper-hand in points with aggressive returns.
Wide serves, angled groundstrokes, looping forehands, slices, and then a flat cross-court strike. Anything that prevented the 2025 winner from finding rhythm, Pegula did.
Keys still produced the spectacular, of course. There were big serves, and moments of brilliance, including several big backhand winners down the line that reminded everyone why her ceiling remains as high as anyone’s on tour — and Pegula that she’d need to stay consistent and not drop her level or the threat of a Keys comeback would always be on.
But the problem for Keys was her own consistency. Too often she ended the point with a winner, or Pegula’s variety and depth forced an error.
The numbers told the story in a really brutal way.
After 10 games, with Pegula holding a 6-3, 1-0 lead, Keys had hit 14 winners but also 20 unforced errors. Pegula? Five and five. By the end of the match, Keys finished with a whopping 26 winners but 28 unforced errors. Pegula? 12 and 13.
It was high-risk, powerful ball-striking tennis clashing against a high-IQ, steady game, and the latter is what prevailed.
The second set followed much the same pattern with Pegula holding a slight lead the whole way through. It was a physical edge, but also a psychological one. She continued to absorb the Keys serve, she wouldn’t blink, she forced the extra balls, hit the angles, and her execution under fourth-round pressure was immense.
Even on serve, where an argument could be made that Pegula may be slightly vulnerable, there was a clear contrast. Just one double fault compared to six.
“It was really important to focus on my serve,” Pegula said. “It was very tough on that one side serving into the sun. I lost that game. And I was kind of, like, you know what … she hit a couple good shots, whatever. Just don’t dwell on it that much.
“I needed to really stay focused. I think just keep my feet moving, keep my body weight going forward. Sometimes when you get a little nervous or playing really well, sometimes you kind of just relax, and it’s hard to do that against someone like Madi who can flip matches really quickly by hitting a couple of big forehands and winners, and all of a sudden she hits a couple good serves, and it’s already back to even.”
There was so much added interest in this contest. The two co-host “The Player’s Box” podcast and are close friends. It was the first women’s Australian Open match between top 10-seeded Americans since Serena Williams and Lindsay Davenport played in the 2005 final.
Pegula now moves into quarterfinals, playing incredibly efficient tennis that can unravel most rivals. No sets dropped. Only 17 games lost.
For years her consistency has been admired and rightly so, but the critics had often labeled her the great quarterfinal regular. Maybe that’s fair — she hadn’t broken through that stage of a Slam until 2024.
She arrived in Melbourne still chasing that major title and those same questions still lingered. When will she finally breakthrough? When will she finally claim the ultimate? Is she “too consistent”? Are there enough weapons? Is she great without being a champion?
For Pegula, it’s all just outside noise that she doesn’t think about.
“I felt like if I’m making quarters of a Slam, that’s pretty good,” she said. “So I never really understood the negativity towards it, or I guess just the headline of, you know, how does she get past the quarters?
“I mean, the fact that I’m putting myself in that many positions I feel like is a feat in itself. … [At the] US Open, I [made] finals, made semis, and that felt like normal. So to me it doesn’t really feel that much different. I think maybe even now I’m even more comfortable knowing that I’ve gotten further, it doesn’t feel, I don’t know, as big of a deal to be in the quarters.”
It’s performances like this, against the defending champion no less, that offer the best possible counter-argument. It’s performances like this that also suggest maybe that breakthrough isn’t coming, maybe it’s actually already in play. And maybe it’s time to shift the narratives.
Pegula’s task doesn’t get any easier: She’ll face No. 4 seed Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinal. While Pegula is 3-0 against her, this will be the first time they’ve played at the Grand Slam level.