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Stocks Pressured by Fed Jitters but Supported by Chip Makers

By
avrotusa
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The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.01%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.06%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.10%.

Stock indexes today are little changed.  Fresh concerns over the Fed’s independence are weighing on stocks and the dollar after President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing “sufficient cause” based on allegations she made false statements on one or more mortgage loans.  Ms. Cook said she will not resign, and her lawyer pledged to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” the president’s “illegal action.”

On the positive side for stocks is the strength in semiconductor makers.  Also, China is sending Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang to the US to meet with US trade officials and negotiators, a move that signals trade talks with China are progressing.

Stocks also found support after today’s report on US July capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

The US June S&P Core Logic composite-20 home price index eased to +2.14% y/y from +2.81% y/y in May, the smallest increase in two years.

Regarding tariffs, President Trump late Monday threatened to impose new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other nations’ digital services taxes that hit American companies.  Last week, Mr. Trump widened steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 consumer items that contain the metals, such as motorcycles, auto parts, furniture components, and tableware.  The change went into effect last Monday and did not exclude goods already in transit.

In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump on August 13 extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November.  On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India’s purchases of Russian oil.  According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.

On the geopolitical front, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine remain elusive, as the US tries to broker a peace deal between the two countries.  On Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said there was no meeting planned between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine and that there “needs to be an agenda first” for a meeting to take place.  “This agenda is not ready at all.”

The markets this week will focus on any fresh tariff news or developments on ending the Ukraine-Russian war.  Later today, the Conference Board’s Aug consumer confidence index is expected to fall -0.8 to 96.4.  After Wednesday’s close, Nvidia will release its quarterly earnings and guidance.  On Thursday, Q2 GDP is expected to be revised upward by +0.1 to 3.1% (q/q annualized). Also, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall by -5,000 to 230,000.  On Friday, July personal spending is expected to climb +0.3% m/m, and July personal income is expected to rise +0.4% m/m.   Also, the July core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to climb +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y.  In addition, the Aug MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall -0.6 to 46.5.  Finally, the University of Michigan’s final-Aug US consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 58.6.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the next FOMC meeting on September 16-17.  The markets are discounting the chances at 53% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.

Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  With Q2 earnings season winding down, over 94% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates.

Overseas stock markets today are lower.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1.5-week low and is down -0.89%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a new 10-year high and closed down -0.39%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 2-week low and closed down -0.97%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU5) today are down -2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +0.6 bp to 4.281%.

T-notes are under pressure today after President Trump said he will move to fire Fed Governor Cook, exacerbating investor concerns about the Fed’s independence and fanning inflation fears if politics forces interest rates below the neutral rate.  Also, rising inflation expectations are undercutting T-note prices after the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a 3.5-week high today of 2.438%. In addition, today’s stronger-than-expected July US core capital goods new orders report was bearish for T-notes. Finally, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $69 billion of 2-year T-notes later today as part of this week’s $211 billion of T-note and floating-rate note auctions.

Sep T-notes recovered from their worst levels as short covering emerged when Fed Governor Cook said she has no plans to resign and that “no cause exists” for President Trump to fire her.

European government bond yields today are mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.8 bp to 2.740%. 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3-month high of 4.765% and is up +5.3 bp to 4.746%.

The French Aug consumer confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -1 to a 1.75-year low of 87, weaker than expectations of 89.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and semiconductor makers after Arete Research Group LLC upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $200.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +1% after the company and IBM announced a quantum-centric supercomputing partnership.  In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Broadcom (AVGO) are up more than +1%.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the company said a second trial of its experimental obesity pill showed patients lost weight and saw significant improvements in blood sugar levels.

PDD Holdings (PDD) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Benchmark Company LLC raised its price target on the stock to $160 from $128.

EchoStar (SATS) is up more than +76% after AT&T announced an agreement to buy spectrum licenses from the company for about $23 billion.

Semtech (SMTC) is up more than +8% after reporting Q2 adjusted gross margin of 53.2%, above the consensus of 53.0%.

VF Corp (VFC) is up more than +5% after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $20.

Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) is up more than +3% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the company will replace Pacific Premier Bancorp in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective before the opening of trading on Tuesday, September 2.

Generac Holdings (GNRC) is down more than -2% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) is down more than -2% after Seaport Global Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Amer Sports (AS) is down more than -1% after holder Anamered Investments sold as much as $163 million of shares in an unregistered block sale between $39.75 to $40.25 per share, below Monday’s closing price of $40.69.

Brown-Forman (BF.B) is down more than -1% after the company said CFO Cunningham will retire on May 1, 2026.

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is down more than -1% after HSBC downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Earnings Reports(8/26/2025)

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD), Box Inc (BOX), Citi Trends Inc (CTRN), Electromed Inc (ELMD), Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI), MongoDB Inc (MDB), nCino Inc (NCNO), Okta Inc (OKTA), Ooma Inc (OOMA), PACS Group Inc (PACS), PVH Corp (PVH).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Grimsby 2-2 Man Utd: What happens now for Ruben Amorim after Carabao Cup humiliation?

By
avrotusa
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0


Amorim spoke in the summer about how emotional he gets on occasion. He vowed to be less forthright during his media commitments.

Some sympathy also has to be offered for the fact he was having to speak on the pitch with the backdrop of still gleeful Grimsby fans telling him he was going to be “sacked in the morning”.

Yet Amorim’s words do not smack of a renewed determination to deliver success to Old Trafford, just as his actions during the shoot-out did not give the impression of someone leading from the front.

And that is a problem.

For United, restructure has been built around his famed system.

While it is fair to say Jadon Sancho and Antony did not have many supporters among the United fanbase and patience with Marcus Rashford was also wearing thin, those players’ values has reduced because Amorim does not play with conventional wide-men.

Amorim had been praised by some for his hardline stance with Alejandro Garnacho, and the Argentina international’s behaviour since he was exiled has not done him many favours.

But it is not that long ago that Garnacho, now in talks with Chelsea, was viewed as the future of United.

The same is also true of Kobbie Mainoo, who feels marginalised to such an extent that if a decent offer came in for him from a club he liked, he would be willing to leave, despite being a local boy and a childhood United fan.

Given a start at Grimsby after not playing for a single minute in the opening two Premier League games, Mainoo was left on for the full 90 minutes.

He didn’t produce a display that demanded repeated selection. But neither was he the worst player on the pitch.

To many, if the system is the reason why Mainoo may leave, the system needs changing.

Amorim has said Mainoo is in contention with skipper Bruno Fernandes for a starting spot in the league.

The United boss felt his method of playing, with three central defenders, two wing-backs, two central midfielders, two number 10s and a central striker, was the reason for his success at Sporting.

This may be true. He was also at a club famed for developing highly talented young players in a league far less physically demanding than in England, where the competition, other than a couple of notable exceptions, is limited.

On Sunday at Fulham, Silva explained clearly the tweak to his side’s formation that allowed Fulham to take control of the midfield area and turn a game that had threatened to get away from them in the early stages.

The game didn’t race away from Fulham because United failed to take their chances, a problem that Amorim repeatedly complained about last season.

This is why he spent £200m on attacking players this summer.

Matheus Cunha has looked a decent buy. If the Brazilian had converted his spot-kick in the shoot-out at Grimsby, United’s blushes would have been spared.

Yet his shot was saved, Bryan Mbeumo missed the decisive penalty, and it was surprising to many that Benjamin Sesko – the third of the attacking additions – was the last outfield player to step forward for United.

There would still have been big questions to answer if Amorim’s side had managed to sneak through to round three.

At clubs like United, performances like this do not get brushed under the carpet. The noise around them is too loud for that to happen.

Amorim will speak to the media on Friday on the eve of his team’s home game against Burnley. Victory against the Clarets will be expected but it certainly is not guaranteed.

Beyond that, no-one can be sure what the future looks like for United.

Karen Bass: Trump attacks 'nonsense'

By
avrotusa
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0



Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass went after President Trump on Tuesday for what she called attacks that are “nonsense.”

During a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Trump criticized California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Bass’s handling of the wildfires that hit parts of Los Angeles earlier this year.

“I think they’re incompetent, okay, to be honest with you. I think they just don’t know how to go about it. It is so badly run by Newscum and by Mayor Bass. Mayor Bass, she was in Africa during the fire,” Trump said.

“She knew the fire was starting to rage, and she decided to take a trip to Africa. These people are just — they’re just bad. You know, you talk about make America great again, they could never make America great again,” he added.

“So what’s your response to that?” CNN’s Erin Burnett asked Bass on “OutFront.”

“Well, other than that it’s nonsense, I mean, we know that the president is not kind when it comes to the truth. So, nothing he said is actually accurate,” Bass responded.

Bass told Burnett that she had been aware that Trump had mentioned her during Tuesday’s meeting.

“I know that he has an ongoing feud with the governor, but, you know, again, he calls everyone incompetent,” she added. “He’s called all of the mayors from the cities that he’s targeted as incompetent. So, it does leave you wondering how he makes those judgments, but, clearly they’re not based in facts.”

Bass’s comments come amid heightened tension between Democratic leaders across the country and the president in the wake of intense federal action in Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles. 

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) recently warned Trump against the deployment of National Guard troops to Chicago, after the president suggested the week before that the Prairie State’s largest city could be an upcoming target.

“Earlier today in the Oval Office, Donald Trump looked at the assembled cameras and asked for me personally to say, ‘Mr. President, can you do us the honor of protecting our city?’” Pritzker said Monday at during a press conference.

“Instead, I say, ‘Mr. President, do not come to Chicago. You are neither wanted here nor needed here,’” he added.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Takes Off on Strong Investor Optimism

By
avrotusa
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0


We recently published 10 Big Names With Surprising Gains. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) is one of the top performers of Monday.

AST SpaceMobile grew its share prices by as much as 9 percent on Monday before paring gains to end the day at $50.01 apiece as investor sentiment continued to be bolstered by plans to launch 60 satellites next year.

Last week, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) confirmed its fully-funded plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026, saying that it would support continuous service in the US, Europe, Japan, and other strategic markets, including the US Government.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Takes Off on Strong Investor Optimism
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Takes Off on Strong Investor Optimism

Photo by SpaceX on Unsplash

“We also have planned orbital launches every one to two months on average during 2025 and 2026,” he added.

Additionally, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) is planning to deploy nationwide intermittent service in the US by the end of the year, followed by the UK, Japan, and Canada in the first quarter next year. This, alone, is expected to rake in revenues between $50 million and $75 million from government and commercial customers in the second half of the year.

In the second quarter, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) widened its net loss attributable to shareholders by 37 percent to $99.4 million from $72.5 million in the same period last year, despite revenues growing by 28 percent to $1.156 billion from $900 million year-on-year.

While we acknowledge the potential of ASTS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

Grimsby 2-2 Manchester United (12-11 on pens): Where does it rank among best upsets?

By
avrotusa
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0


Bryan Mbeumo holds his hand to his head after Manchester United lose to GrimsbyGetty Images

Bryan Mbeumo missed the decisive spot-kick as Manchester United were beaten by Grimsby

Adam Millington

BBC Sport journalist

Manchester United suffered a shock early EFL Cup exit on penalties to League Two side Grimsby Town – a result that will be remembered for years to come.

United were beaten 12-11 on spot-kicks, having clawed their way back from 2-0 behind with 15 minutes to go to scrape a 2-2 draw.

It was not the first time United had suffered a notable upset in domestic cup action, either. Remember York City’s 3-0 win at Old Trafford 30 years ago?

After Grimsby’s surprise victory, BBC Sport looks at 10 of the biggest upsets in the FA Cup and EFL Cup.

This isn’t an exhaustive list, and you can leave your thoughts in the comments as well as ranking the 10 upsets and sharing your results.

Grimsby 2-2 Man Utd (12-11 on pens, League Cup, 2025)

An upset as astonishing for its manner as it was for its proportions. Grimsby Town, a League Two side, beat top-flight Manchester United.

Not only did they win, but they were 2-0 up after 30 minutes following goals from Charles Vernam and Tyrell Warren.

The visitors pulled one back through Bryan Mbeumo with 15 minutes to go and United looked like they might squeeze through when Harry Maguire went on to level in the 89th minute.

It went to penalties and what ensued was an incredible shootout, with Clarke Oduor for Grimsby and Matheus Cunha for Manchester United missing the only penalties as each side’s 11 took one.

The players then went again and, after Darragh Burns scored to make it 12-11, Mbeumo struck his second spot-kick against the crossbar.

Plymouth 1-0 Liverpool (FA Cup, 2025)

Arne Slot made 10 changes to his Liverpool side after they had won an EFL Cup semi-final in their previous game and the Reds were made to pay.

Eight minutes after the interval, the Pilgrims were awarded a penalty after Harvey Elliott’s handball and Ryan Hardie drilled home from the spot in emphatic fashion.

Hardie almost added a second shortly afterwards when his shot was turned on to the post by Liverpool keeper Caoimhin Kelleher.

The bottom club in the Championship held on, with Conor Hazard making crucial late saves, to beat a team who would go on to win the Premier League title.

Chelsea 2-4 Bradford City (FA Cup, 2015)

Bradford ranked 49 places below their opponents as they travelled to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea, who at that point were top of the Premier League.

Gary Cahill and Ramires netted to put the hosts 2-0 up and give Chelsea firm control of the fourth-round tie.

Bradford had other ideas, though, as Jon Stead pulled one back before Filipe Morais side-footed in an equaliser.

Andy Halliday then blasted the Bantams ahead before Mark Yeats slotted a fourth to inflict a crushing defeat on Jose Mourinho’s side.

Oldham 3-2 Liverpool (FA Cup, 2013)

Premier League giants Liverpool had ample strength at Boundary Park, with the likes of Luis Suarez, Raheem Sterling and Daniel Sturridge all starting.

League One hosts Oldham were in the midst of financial problems but produced a spirited display against the odds, with Matt Smith nodding in a Youssouf M’Changama cross to open the scoring.

Suarez levelled, but Smith soon took advantage of an error from Liverpool goalkeeper Brad Jones before Reece Wabara netted a back-post header to give the Latics a 3-1 lead.

Joe Allen volleyed home to pull one back and Liverpool brought on Steven Gerrard, but it was not enough to avoid defeat.

Bradford City 1-1 Arsenal (3-2 on pens, League Cup, 2012)

A fourth-tier side against Premier League opposition in the quarter-finals of the league cup – Arsenal were clear favourites.

Bradford had already caused an upset in the tournament, though, beating Wigan on penalties in the round before. They were up for a fight at home to Arsene Wenger’s Gunners.

Garry Thompson volleyed the Bantams ahead, before Thomas Vermaelen headed home a Santi Cazorla cross with just two minutes of normal time remaining.

Just as Mbeumo missed the decisive kick for United against Grimsby after scoring in normal time, the same happened for Vermaelen here as Bradford prevailed 3-2 on spot-kicks.

They went on to beat Aston Villa in the semi-final but lost 5-0 to Swansea at Wembley.

Liverpool 2-2 Northampton (2-4 on pens, League Cup, 2010)

Another surprise cup exit for Liverpool.

This one happened in the League Cup – at Anfield. Milan Jovanovic fired in an opener for Liverpool but Billy McKay equalised and Michael Jacobs tapped in to give the Cobblers a lead early in extra time.

David Ngog scored from a late header to set up the penalty drama, but Northampton were the victors from the spot, with Abdul Osman keeping his cool to slot in the decisive spot-kick.

Man Utd 0-3 York City (League Cup, 1995)

Ruben Amorim is not the first Manchester United to suffer a shock in the League Cup – even Sir Alex Ferguson has faced the same.

The United boss didn’t take the game lightly and made just four changes from the league game which they had played three days before, with the likes of David Beckham, Lee Sharpe and Ryan Giggs starting.

Paul Barnes, father of Newcastle winger Harvey Barnes, scored twice for Alan Little’s visitors, including one from the penalty spot, before Tony Barras headed a third to inflict a crushing defeat at Old Trafford.

United put out another strong team at Bootham Crescent for the return leg two weeks later, with Eric Cantona in their squad, but despite getting two goals from Paul Scholes and another from Terry Cooke, the Minstermen went through 4-3 on aggregate thanks to a strike from Scott Jordan.

Wrexham 2-1 Arsenal (FA Cup, 1992)

Arsenal were reigning Premiership champions and second in the top flight. Wrexham were 24th in the Third Division.

The Gunners made the trip to Wales as firm favourites and were just 10 minutes from securing a spot in the fourth round after Alan Smith’s first-half opener.

But Mickey Thomas sent a 25-yard free kick past David Seaman before Steve Watkin’s strike earned victory for Wrexham just two minutes later.

Sutton 2-1 Coventry (FA Cup, 1989)

Sutton United had a memorable cup run in 2016-17, beating three EFL teams – including Leeds United – before losing to Arsenal in the fifth round.

They have also produced one of the biggest shocks of all time.

The non-league side took on a Coventry team who were then in the First Division and had won the FA Cup in 1987.

The part-time side upset the odds at home, with Matthew Hanlan volleying home the winner just before the hour mark.

Hereford 2-1 Newcastle (FA Cup, 1972)

Top-flight Newcastle were beaten in the third round of the FA Cup by non-league opposition when they took on Hereford United in 1972.

Hereford took the tie to a replay after a 2-2 draw at St James’ Park, but Newcastle looked destined to make it to the fourth round thanks to a late goal by Malcolm McDonald in the rematch.

However, the non-leaguers had other ideas and Ronnie Radford popped up to score the most famous 30-yard goal in FA Cup history to take the game into extra time.

Substitute Ricky George scored the winner – amid scenes of wild celebration at Edgar Street – as Hereford became the first non-league club to defeat a First Division side since 1949.

RFK further limits COVID-19 vaccines

By
avrotusa
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0


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