JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — After every victory celebration in the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ locker room this season, coach Liam Coen delivered an energetic fist pump and an emphatic “How’s that feel?” It’s a phrase his father, Tim, used after victories as a college and high school coach in Rhode Island — though his fist pump was slightly different.

As the season went on and the wins piled up — 11 … 12 … 13 — the fist pumps got bigger and more effusive. As did the noise and cheers from players and coaches.

“[It’s] a lot of buildup, a ton of prep, emotions, communication, there’s that border of being exhausted/adrenaline at different points,” the first-time head coach said of the postgame tradition. “So yeah, even as a coach, you want to let it loose a little bit after.”

Players love it, too.

“I’m not sure what it is … If it’s a fist pump or whatever, but it’s pretty exciting every single week to see him come in and just have the juice and energy,” tight end Brenton Strange said. “… It makes us want to fight for him and fight for the organization and fight for everybody in the building even more.”

When owner Shad Khan hired Coen late last January, the Jaguars were coming off a 4-13 season. They had a struggling quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a defense that ranked 31st in total defense, last in pass defense, and forced a league-low nine turnovers.

Almost one year later, Coen — along with executive vice president Tony Boselli and general manager James Gladstone — has led the Jaguars to a 13-4 record (second-most victories in a season in franchise history), an AFC South championship, and to a home wild-card game on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Buffalo Bills.

What sparked the drastic turnaround was a change in team culture to a “one-voice” approach, the willingness to adapt and move on from assignments that weren’t working, and getting Lawrence to play the best football of his career.

If you ask the players, they’ll tell you Coen, 40, is the main reason for that.

“He knows what it takes to be a great football team,” running back Travis Etienne Jr. said. “He knows what the players need to hear in order to get ready for Sunday. And I feel like he’s been great for us. He kind of came here to change everyone’s mindset and just truly instilled that growth process for everyone.

“We’re thankful for him and just want to continue to see what he has in store for us.”

IN WEEK 12, the Arizona Cardinals tied the game against the Jaguars with a field goal with three seconds to go in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars answered with Cam Little‘s 52-yard field goal on their first possession and the defense secured the 27-24 victory by breaking up a fourth-down pass inside the 5-yard line.

In the locker room afterward, Strange succinctly captured what he felt was a change inside the organization.

“I’m just so proud of this team for staying steady and never giving up because it’s been different in the past,” he said. “What’s different about this team is we just stay steady and we just keep going no matter what.”

There is no misalignment between the head coach and general manager regarding playing time, team identity and playcalling duties. The defensive players aren’t playing rock, paper, scissors to decide who goes onto the field. And there are no accusations of players quitting.

Now, there’s synergy between Coen, Boselli and Gladstone.

They operate with what Boselli called a “one voice” approach, meaning the message presented to the players, coaches, staff and the rest of the organization is the same: There’s a certain standard that must be met if you are going to be a member of the Jaguars.

“Mentally and physically tough dudes that love to play football and they love the game of football,” Coen said in Week 18, explaining what he expects from his players. “… we want these guys to ultimately care about each other and care about the team first.”

“…There’s going to be hard times, you might lose your job for a week … You may have a great game, you might not have a great game. Well, that’s mental toughness, and so guys that can withstand those types of different ebbs and flows in a season, that’s what we’re looking for.”

The Jaguars’ commitment to that showed early on with the trade of running back Tank Bigsby.

Bigsby began the offseason competing with Etienne to be the team’s top back, but as training camp progressed, it became clear Etienne had won the job. Bigsby wasn’t happy, and the staff had several conversations with him about his attitude, per a source with knowledge of the situation. He had only five carries in the Jaguars’ season-opening victory over Carolina (Etienne had 16 and ran for 143 yards) and at times didn’t engage with teammates and coaches on the sideline.

He was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles the following day.

Coen has tried to instill playing as a team and for each other since day one.

Multiple players said it was evident in January that things had changed from the atmosphere and feeling inside the team facility in 2024. Coen mixed up the locker room assignments in the offseason so players could get to know different teammates. Defensive end Josh Hines-Allen said competition drills during offseason conditioning and organized team activities brought everyone together.

“That right there was a good start for us to being [a] competitive team,” Hines-Allen said. “Wanting to celebrate your teammates, but then also wanting to beat ’em, too. So I thought it was a great start for us.”

Coen has also established his motivational style.

He has leaned into the “nobody respects us” approach. That came to the forefront after the Jaguars’ Week 14 victory over the Indianapolis Colts when he responded to a question about how the Jaguars would handle the respect that would surely come after they improved to 9-4 and took over first place in the AFC South.

“That’s the beauty of it. It ain’t coming,” he said. “You know that. It’s not. And that’s the beauty of it, and that’s totally fine.”

Two weeks later, he seized on a comment Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton made about the Jaguars in the days before the teams were to play at Empower Field at Mile High: “It’s a smaller market but you see a real good team.”

The first thing Coen said in his postgame news conference following the Jaguars’ 34-20 victory was this: “Just thankful that a small-market team like us can come into a place like Mile High and get it done.”

Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun said Coen made sure everyone knew what Payton said before the game, and the players ate it up.

“The untrained eye might say, ‘Oh, that was just a nice comment. I thought [Payton] called us a good team,'” Oluokun said the next day. “But we don’t like that little-brother feel, so that’s really the kind of energy that he brought to the locker room.

“… I like that energy.”

COEN SAID HE believes that being unwilling to change can be an impediment to success.

That is evident in the changes he made to the passing game when it wasn’t playing well early in the season (207 yards per game, eight TD passes, five interceptions in six weeks). He made changes in the defensive line rotation to see if some of the undrafted rookies would be more productive than two veterans. He moved players into different roles, adjusted the way they were being used, and Gladstone helped by adding to the roster.

“Whether it’s culturally, whether it’s the message that you’re sending to your players on a week-to-week basis, change of schedules, things like that, having the flexibility to do what you think is best versus [what you’ve been doing], ” Coen said.

“When you have a good group of guys around you, people around you that you’re able to bounce ideas off of and take some things in to be able to ultimately make the best decision that you think at the time, that is the balance for sure.”

Receiver Brian Thomas Jr. had a standout rookie season in 2024, but he struggled with drops and appeared to shy away from contact early this season, so Coen elevated rookie Travis Hunter to his WR1 slot in Week 7. Against the Los Angeles Rams that week, Hunter caught eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown — one of three 100-yard games by Jaguars players this season.

The Jaguars weren’t getting much from receiver Dyami Brown, whom they signed to a one-year, $10 million contract in the offseason. Brown had 16 catches for 194 yards, three drops, four carries and averaged 40 snaps per game in Weeks 1-7, so the Jaguars moved Parker Washington — who started the season as the No. 4 receiver — into a bigger role.

When Hunter suffered a season-ending knee injury during practice before the next game, Washington got even more work. He had 17 catches in the seven games before Hunter’s injury and 36 (and counting) in the nine games since — including two 100-yard outings.

The Jaguars also acquired receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline from the Las Vegas Raiders to make up for Hunter’s absence. Since then, Meyers has become Lawrence’s most trusted target, especially in the middle of the field.

On defense, the Jaguars were getting minimal production from veteran defensive lineman Emmanuel Ogbah (12 tackles in eight games despite playing more than 60% of the snaps in four of those games) and 2024 second-round pick Maason Smith (11 tackles in nine games) over the first nine games of the season. Instead, they turned to undrafted rookies Danny Striggow and B.J. Greene to fill Ogbah’s role and Matt Dickerson in place of Smith. Ogbah has been inactive in three of the last five weeks and Smith has been inactive since Week 15.

Coen’s communication skills are elite, said center Robert Hainsey, who was with Coen last season in Tampa Bay. Players appreciate Coen’s openness and honesty, and his ability to have tough conversations, he said.

“Every coach has to be able to have those hard conversations, and [Coen’s] willing to do them and just be candid with you,” Hainsey said. “And it’s not an attack. It’s not in the front, it’s not personal. Whatever it is, it’s just like, ‘Hey, here’s what’s going on right now.’ And when people come to you like a man, you respond like a man. And when there’s that back-and-forth between players and coaches, I think it’s a product of a good culture.”

Another change Coen made was with his starting quarterback.

Starting in the offseason, Coen reworked Lawrence’s footwork — for example, he is now lining up with his left foot ahead of his right in shotgun formation (Lawrence had done it the other way his entire football career) — and standardized his drops.

It’s all tied into Coen’s offense. The footwork is paired with certain concepts, routes and depth of the drop, for example, which is connected to the timing.

While it took Lawrence half a season to adapt to his third offensive scheme since being drafted, it all seemed to click after Coen made one more adjustment. He told Lawrence to “cut it loose.” It meant Lawrence was no longer trying not to make a mistake. Over the past two months, Lawrence has a 77.3 QBR (third highest in NFL), 251.1 passing yards per game, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions, 187 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. And the Jaguars are 8-0.

“Me and Liam, we have a good relationship and we just are constantly communicating,” Lawrence said. “And so, I think that as a quarterback is a good feeling when you know your coach trusts you. …

“That’s a big part of this whole team deal is the trust with coach to us and vice versa. And I think we have that and it’s continuing to grow every week, so it’s been fun.”

EVERYTHING COEN HAS built in his first season as a head coach will be tested Sunday against the Bills and reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen.

The Bills are 1.5-point road favorites, according to DraftKings sportsbook, despite the Jaguars being AFC South champs and winners of eight consecutive games.

The Bills lead the NFL in rushing (159.6 yards per game) and have the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense (156.9 YPG), but dealing with Allen is the Jaguars’ main problem. He has scored 39 total touchdowns (25 passing, 14 rushing), ranks seventh in Total QBR (64.7), and in mid-December rallied the Bills from a 21-0 deficit to beat New England 35-31 in Gillette Stadium.

“I remember we played him in 2020, and we played him again in 2022 [when Coen was with the Los Angeles Rams], and he did some really good things against us like stiff-arming defenders, throwing the ball down the field a million miles,” Coen said. “To watch him play, the competitor, so many playoff games, division, whatever it is, big games, he typically shows up and makes critical plays at critical moments, and that’s why he’s been an MVP candidate for a long time.”

The Jaguars have the league’s best run defense (85.6 yards per game), and Lawrence — who finished the season with 4,007 passing yards and 38 total touchdowns (29 passing, nine rushing) — is playing the best football of his career during the team’s eight-game winning streak.

Win or lose, Coen completely changed one of the NFL’s worst teams around in less than a year.

“Liam is a great coach,” cornerback Greg Newsome II said. “For this to be his first year is unbelievable. I think he should win Coach of the Year.”

The wild-card round for the 2025 NFL playoffs has six great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

The games begin Saturday, with Panthers QB Bryce Young making his first playoff appearance, facing the Rams, and another rendition of the Packers-Bears rivalry. Sunday brings a QB duel between the Bills’ Josh Allen and Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, the 49ers visiting the Eagles, and the Chargers traveling cross-country to face Patriots QB Drake Maye. Monday caps the slate with a pesky Texans defense facing Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers.

Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and analytics writer Seth Walder provides a key stat to know for each matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak also gives us bold predictions, while NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X factor to watch. Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks an intriguing bet for each game, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating crews. Plus, our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection, and four analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us final-score picks for every game.

Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full wild-card slate.

Jump to a matchup:
LAR-CAR | GB-CHI | BUF-JAX
SF-PHI | LAC-NE | HOU-PIT

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | LAR -10.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Rams: Los Angeles is expecting WR Davante Adams to return. He has not played since aggravating a left hamstring injury in Week 15. The Rams have missed him most in the red zone, as nine of his league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns have come in goal-to-go situations. According to ESPN Research, the Panthers have allowed only five passing touchdowns in goal-to-go situations this season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL. “[Adams is] such a great player,” QB Matthew Stafford said. “I just have to put it in the ballpark and let him go do his thing.” — Sarah Barshop

What we’re hearing on the Panthers: As big as this game is for QB Bryce Young, it’s bigger for the running game that had 19 yards last week and only 99 the week before. Carolina needs the balance it had in its Week 13 win over the Rams, in which the Panthers ran 40 times for 164 yards. That opened it up for Young, who had three TD passes — including two on fourth-and-short. — David Newton

Stat to know: The Rams rank second in run block win rate (74.1%), while the Panthers are 32nd in run stop win rate (26.2%) and 26th in EPA allowed per designed run. It all sets up for a game where the Rams won’t have to take as many risks because they should have success on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. But they will be without Kevin Dotson (ankle injury), who ranks 24th out of 62 qualifying guards in run block win rate. — Walder

Bold prediction: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan will go off for 100-plus yards in his first career postseason game. McMillan had only one catch for 43 yards in the first contest against the Rams as the Panthers ran the ball a ton. But on a trailing script in this game, he’ll shine. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Panthers WR Jalen Coker. He has a touchdown catch in three of his past five games, including one in Carolina’s win over the Rams. If the Panthers are going to upset L.A., Coker will have to create explosive plays as a boundary target for Young. — Bowen

One bet to consider: OVER 46.5. The over cashes if Carolina scores early and forces a competitive game. The Rams can score 30-plus, while any early Panthers success prevents L.A. coach Sean McVay from slowing the tempo. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The Rams have been one of the NFL’s least penalized teams over the past six seasons, and in 2025 they committed the fewest in the league (5.5 per game). Referee Clete Blakeman’s crew threw an average of 14.4 flags per game. — Seifert

Injuries: Rams | Panthers

Maldonado’s pick: Rams 35, Panthers 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Panthers 17
Solak’s pick: Rams 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 37, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 74.9% (by an average of 9.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Stafford is the kind of QB you want in the huddle … Panthers hint Newton will strike ‘Keep Pounding’ drum before wild card … Canales unfazed by Panthers being underdogs, points to ‘Beast Quake’

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | GB -1.5 (45.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Packers: Green Bay has the advantage in playoff experience. The Packers are in for the third straight season, although they’ve won just one game of their previous two appearances. “You still go out there and get beat, regardless of if you got hella experience or not,” safety and defensive captain Xavier McKinney said. Coach Matt LaFleur said, “Ultimately, it’s about what you do on that day.” — Rob Demovsky

What we’re hearing on the Bears: Chicago wants to avoid another slow offensive start after getting outscored 47-21, running 66 fewer plays, losing the time of possession battle by 10:43 and going 2-for-12 on third downs in the first halves of its past three games. It has been an especially common trend against the Packers this season (The Bears trailed 14-3 and 6-0 at halftime in the teams’ regular-season games). “The biggest thing with us playing complementary football is us getting out to that fast start, having urgency right from the first snap and being able to go out and execute the plan, execute the openers and be able to go put points on the board,” offensive coordinator Declan Doyle said. — Courtney Cronin

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Stephen A. picks NFC wild-card winner between Bears and Packers

Stephen A. Smith breaks down why he’s confident the Bears will defeat the visiting Packers in their NFC wild-card matchup Saturday.

Stat to know: Both QBs should have all the time they need. The Bears lead the league in pass block win rate (73.6%), and on plays without Micah Parsons on the field, the Packers have just a 28.1% pass rush win rate. On the flip side, the Bears also have almost zero pass rush (28.8% PRWR, 31st) while the Packers rank sixth in pass block win rate (69%). — Walder

Bold prediction: The Bears will hit a trick play on the first drive. They almost had one against the Packers in Week 16 — a fourth-and-goal direct snap to RB Kyle Monangai that went over his head. Johnson will have another wrinkle for his first postseason game as coach, and Chicago needs to get out to a faster start in this game. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Bears TE Colston Loveland. He has topped 90 receiving yards in each of his past two games. He has the alignment versatility to work multiple levels of the field in coach Ben Johnson’s offense. Look for Loveland to see steady volume from QB Caleb Williams versus the Packers’ zone-heavy defense. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Bears +1.5. Chicago runs efficiently, forces turnovers and closes better late. Green Bay moves the ball but stalls when it matters. Take the team built to survive discomfort. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Adrian Hill missed two games because of a leg injury, but overall, his crew threw the second-most flags among the 17 crews (17.9). The Bears led the NFL with nine flags for roughing the passer, four more than the next team, but Hill’s crew called only three such penalties. — Seifert

Injuries: Packers | Bears

Maldonado’s pick: Bears 27, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 21
Solak’s pick: Bears 27, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Packers 34, Bears 31
FPI prediction: GB, 55.9% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will Packers’ Love win a SB like Favre, Rodgers in Year 3? … A new layer in Packers-Bears rivalry: Foam cheese grater hats … ‘Fragile’ no more: How the Bears’ Williams, Johnson evolved

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -1.5 (45.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Bills: Coach Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game in his Bills tenure (0-5). In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills’ defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). The team is embracing this challenge. “Being able to just have that mentality of it’s you and your guys versus everybody else. We embrace that, and, I mean, we’re excited. We could play anywhere,” DE Greg Rousseau said. — Alaina Getzenberg

What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: The headlines might be about the QBs, but this game likely will be decided on the ground: the Jaguars’ top-ranked run defense versus the league’s leading rusher in James Cook III. The Jaguars didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher in the regular season. “It’s a challenge at every level of the defense, and the running back obviously is elite,” defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. “Cook does a tremendous job of finding cracks. You look at some of the stuff on tape, there’s nowhere to go, and he pops through there.” — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little. — Walder

Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can’t run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen’s preferred target. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo’s foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence’s explosive play ability. — Bowen

One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars’ offense is efficient but not fast. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL’s third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. — Seifert

Injuries: Bills | Jaguars

Maldonado’s pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27
Solak’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30
FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Secret sauce to Bills beating the Jaguars? A big key is the O-line … How Jaguars QB Lawrence’s grill gift came to be … Jaguars clinch AFC South, turn sights toward playoffs

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -4.5 (44.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the 49ers: In an alternate universe, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would be working with coach Kyle Shanahan. Fangio spent time with the 49ers during the 2022 offseason, and Shanahan planned to hire him when all signs pointed to DeMeco Ryans leaving (he did, to Houston). But Fangio signed with Miami in 2023, then joined the Eagles in 2024. Now, Shanahan faces the task of scoring against a Fangio-led defense that ranks fifth in points allowed per game (19.1). “[Fangio], schematically, he has always been the best to me,” Shanahan said. “… Has a very sound scheme that he doesn’t need to change up very much. It just naturally changes with how he does his coverages, how he does his fronts, the personnel groupings he does. He’s very good at getting a bead on what you’re trying to do and making you adjust.” — Nick Wagoner

What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Philadelphia was equally respectful toward Shanahan. Fangio was complimentary of Shanahan’s scheme and his ability to call plays, and he noted how “everything’s packaged well together” and is purposeful on offense for San Francisco. The 49ers use motion on 70% of their offensive plays, the third most in the NFL. “It’s an offense that challenges your eyes and your discipline,” LB Jaelan Phillips said. “If you let all of the moving pieces affect you, that’s when they take advantage of people.” — Tim McManus

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What do the 49ers need to do vs. the Eagles?

Field Yates previews the 49ers’ playoff matchup vs. the Eagles.

Stat to know: Since Week 7 — the week after LB Fred Warner‘s ankle injury — the 49ers are allowing opponents a 47% success rate on designed runs (third highest). Though the Eagles haven’t been nearly as successful on the ground this season as they were in 2024, San Francisco’s defense could present the opportunity for RB Saquon Barkley to have a big game. — Walder

Bold prediction: Niners DE Bryce Huff will get a key sack. Huff is the 49ers’ best shot at edge pressure, and he has a quick first step that can challenge Eagles LT Jordan Mailata. Huff has been struggling mightily of late, but expect an impassioned performance here. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Eagles S Reed Blankenship. He will be asked to play a two-way role in the secondary, limiting the middle-of-the-field targets in the 49ers’ route tree while also filling the alleys to cut off RB Christian McCaffrey in the run game. Blankenship had 53 solo tackles and one interception this season. — Bowen

One bet to consider: 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Eagles allow a league-low passing touchdown rate. And Fangio defenses historically suppress red zone passing efficiency, supporting Purdy’s under. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The 49ers were the second-least-penalized team in the NFL (six per game), but they’re tied for the most flags for unnecessary roughness (10). Overall, referee Alan Eck’s crew threw the NFL’s second-fewest flags per game this season (13). — Seifert

Injuries: 49ers | Eagles

Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 20
Moody’s pick: 49ers 20, Eagles 17
Solak’s pick: 49ers 24, Eagles 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Eagles 28
FPI prediction: PHI, 55.4% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: How the NFL’s best QB room got 49ers back to playoffs … What drives the Eagles defense? Meatballs … Injured 49ers LB Bethune to miss playoffs

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | NE -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Chargers: QB Justin Herbert has been playing through a fractured left hand since Week 13, but he said this week that his hand feels the best it has since the injury. Herbert and other key starters rested in Week 18, a decision he said proved beneficial. “I’d say definitely not taking hits on it last week was probably pretty helpful,” he said. — Kris Rhim

What we’re hearing on the Patriots: QB Drake Maye noted that the Chargers don’t allow many explosive plays by keeping everything in front of them and that they are a top-five defense in forcing three-and-outs. So a point of emphasis for the Patriots is to sustain drives and then capitalize on one-on-one matchups. “One-on-one, I like our guys. Ball placement, I like giving them a chance to go make a play. At the same time, be patient. Don’t be bored being efficient and executing underneath and letting things come to you,” Maye said of the approach against the Chargers. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots’ average of 8.7 air yards per attempt ranks as the second most in the NFL. But that makes for an interesting matchup against the Chargers’ defense, which allows opponents just 5.0 air yards per attempt (third lowest). Los Angeles achieves that by being the most two-high-heavy (57%) defense and the league’s most zone-heavy defense (70%). — Walder

Bold prediction: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton will shine on 20-plus carries and 100-plus yards against a poor Patriots run defense, especially if DT Khyiris Tonga (foot) can’t go. The Chargers need to run the ball to protect their offensive line and control pace, and Hampton has looked good since returning from his ankle injury. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Patriots TE Hunter Henry. His ability to uncover and work the seams gives the Patriots an edge in the red zone. Henry has five red zone touchdown receptions this season, including two in his past three games. He should be a priority target for Maye. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Patriots -3.5. New England is top five in point differential, points per drive on offense and defensive points allowed per drive. Since Week 10, the Chargers’ offense ranks bottom three in yards per play, success rate, explosive play rate and points per drive. That gap supports the margin. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Patriots CB Carlton Davis III was flagged six times for defensive pass interference, second most in the regular season. But the Chargers haven’t been great at drawing pass interference and have had only four called against their opponents, second lowest. — Seifert

Injuries: Chargers | Patriots

Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Solak’s pick: Patriots 20, Chargers 14
Walder’s pick: Patriots 26, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: NE, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Mack stayed in L.A.; inside his relationship with Tuipulotu … Barnwell weighs in on Maye’s MVP candidacy … Herbert taking snaps, says rest helped hand

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | HOU -3 (39.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Texans: Coach DeMeco Ryans has the utmost respect for Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, saying he has “done it for a long time” and pointing out how Tomlin sends encouragement his way. However, based on Monday’s news conference, Ryans will use the coverage being heavily slanted toward the Steelers as a rallying cry. He showed slight annoyance at the number of questions he received about Pittsburgh by sarcastically saying, “Y’all excited about the Steelers.” In the 2024 playoffs, he used the pro-Chargers coverage as motivation for the team before its 32-12 win in the wild-card round. — DJ Bien-Aime

What we’re hearing on the Steelers: The offensive line will face its greatest challenge of the season in the pass-rush tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter (29.5 sacks combined). “Both of them just present major threats,” LT Dylan Cook said. “It’s more so their changeups. We all know they’re kind of power guys, but they both have really good spin moves. They both have really good motors, good hand usage.” The line has played well since Cook joined the group a month ago, giving up only two sacks in each of the past three games. — Brooke Pryor

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Tomlin to Eisen: We’re excited to have DK Metcalf back

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin joins Rich Eisen and talks about what DK Metcalf’s absence meant for the team.

Stat to know: There is perhaps no game more relevant for the Steelers’ ultra-quick average time to throw of 2.62 seconds (fastest in the NFL) than this one. That’s because of the edge rushers they are facing: Anderson recorded 62 pass rush wins this season (second most), and Hunter delivers plenty of disruption as well. Pittsburgh might be uniquely suited to mitigate that threat because of Aaron Rodgers‘ quick release — though standout DBs Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre will surely know that, too. — Walder

Bold prediction: The Steelers will get shut out in the first half. There’s so much hype for the Texans’ pass rush, but it’s the secondary’s ability to create turnovers and minimize YAC that will lead to quick three-and-outs in this one. Houston can sustain long drives to control the clock, too. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Anderson. He can play a difference-making role, setting an edge to limit the Steelers’ outside zone run game, while also creating chaos as a pass rusher to disrupt Rodgers’ rhythm. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Texans -3. The Texans allow the second-lowest points per drive and force the most field goals per drive. Pittsburgh can score only with short fields, so the cleaner defense will cover in this game. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The outcome of this game could depend on whether the Steelers can keep the Texans’ pass rush off Rodgers. But he has helped the Steelers avoid harmful holding penalties by getting the ball out quick. They were flagged only 14 times for it, tied for the second fewest this season. — Seifert

Injuries: Texans | Steelers

Maldonado’s pick: Texans 23, Steelers 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 21, Steelers 17
Solak’s pick: Texans 24, Steelers 13
Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 54.7% (by an average of 1.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers’ Metcalf ‘excited as hell’ to return for playoffs

The Memphis Grizzlies are entertaining offers to potentially move two-time All-Star Ja Morant ahead of the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline, sources told ESPN.

Multiple teams are pursuing Morant in trade talks, and rival executives believe the Grizzlies would prioritize draft picks and young players in return, sources said. This is the first time the Grizzlies have engaged other teams in trades for Morant, who was the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft.

Morant, 26, is under contract with the Grizzlies through the 2027-28 season. He is eligible to sign up to a three-year, $178 million extension this summer. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 7.6 assists in 28.3 minutes per game this season, while shooting a career-low 40.1% from the field and 20.8% from 3-point range.

Morant has played in only 18 games this season because of injuries and a one-game suspension stemming from a postgame exchange with coach Tuomas Iisalo in November. Memphis is 10-9 without him in the lineup, and 6-12 when he plays. He played just 59 games over the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons because of two suspensions for incidents with guns, along with various injuries.

Morant is one of eight players in NBA history to average 22 points and seven assists per game. LeBron James, Oscar Robertson, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham being the others.

Memphis is considering multiple paths forward amid the emergence of several promising young players such as Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer, including building around them and 2023 Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also remain open to continue on with Morant as a focal part of their retooling.

The Grizzlies, who traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic last offseason for four unprotected first-round picks and one first-round swap, have a treasure chest of assets, with a total of nine first-round picks and six second-rounders moving forward. They have their first-rounder in each of the next seven drafts.

Memphis currently has the 10th-best lottery odds ahead of a highly anticipated NBA draft in June.

We can only hope that the second semifinal is as good as the first.

On Thursday night in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami watched multiple leads disappear, dropped potential interceptions, committed penalties and still gutted its way into the College Football Playoff National Championship game with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss.

Carson Beck‘s 3-yard touchdown run made the difference, but it was a wonderful back-and-forth affair until the end.

As we prepare for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Indiana and Oregon on Friday evening, here are the key plays and takeaways from an incredible first semifinal.

What just happened?

Miami paid millions of dollars to bring Beck to town, and in the drive that would define his season with the Hurricanes, he led them 75 yards for the winning touchdown to send them to the national title game. Money well spent, huh?

Beck’s 3-yard touchdown scramble with 18 seconds left capped a madcap fourth quarter that featured four lead changes and even saw Ole Miss drive close enough for a shot at the end zone on the final play.

The Hurricanes hogged the ball for much of the game — time of possession after three quarters: Miami 33:50, Ole Miss 11:10 — but dropped four potential interceptions, missed a field goal and threw a pick deep in Rebels territory. Given extra life, Ole Miss took two fourth-quarter leads, first on Lucas Carneiro‘s fourth field goal of the evening, then on a 24-yard touchdown pass from Trinidad Chambliss to Dae’Quan Wright. But with four third-down conversions, Beck guided the Canes down the field and won the game.

Impact plays

Miami games don’t tend to feature many big plays, for or against, but chunk plays caused some pretty big swings in this one.

Kewan Lacy‘s 73-yard burst early in the second quarter — Ole Miss’ first good offensive play of the game — gave the Rebels a sudden 7-3 lead. Lacy tweaked a hamstring and missed most of the next two quarters before returning, but the touchdown bought Ole Miss some time.

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Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy bursts free for a 73-yard TD

Kewan Lacy goes untouched for a 73-yard touchdown to give Ole Miss a 7-3 lead.

Miami leveraged the game back in its favor. Keelan Marion scored on a bomb against busted coverage late in the first half to make it 17-10. After generating just 69 receiving yards in his first two playoff games, he was the semifinal star of the Miami receiving corps, catching seven passes for 114 yards.

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Miami’s Carson Beck connects with Keelan Marion for a 52-yard go-ahead TD

Carson Beck hits a wide-open Keelan Marion, who walks into the end zone to put the Hurricanes back on top.

Three Carneiro field goals — including a 58-yarder at the end of the first half and a doinked-in 52-yarder in the third quarter — would push the Rebels back in front, but they wasted a golden opportunity after a pair of Miami personal fouls (the Canes had 10 penalties on the evening) set up a first-and-goal. Ole Miss gained only 4 yards in three plays and settled for a 19-17 lead, which disappeared within two minutes on Malachi Toney‘s 36-yard burst off a screen pass.

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Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TD

Malachi Toney evades tackles on his way to a 36-yard touchdown to give Miami the lead back.

Ole Miss created the third lead change of the fourth quarter with Wright’s touchdown but left plenty time on the clock for Beck and the Canes. They used most of it, took the lead and broke up a Hail Mary.

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Miami wins after Ole Miss’ Hail Mary attempt falls incomplete

Trinidad Chambliss airs one out to the end zone, but it’s too far and falls incomplete.

See you next fall, Rebels

The most thrilling and headline-grabbing Ole Miss season in recent history ended with two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers. The Rebels played brilliant ball down the stretch, winning their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-14 to clinch a playoff bid despite the waves of headlines regarding Lane Kiffin’s potential move to LSU. And despite Kiffin leaving town and trying to take assistants with him before Ole Miss’ season had ended, the Rebels thumped Tulane in the playoff, came back from nine points down at halftime to beat Georgia in the quarterfinals, then came back again to nearly beat Miami.

So many of the Rebels’ stars made big plays Thursday night. Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a touchdown and used a great 19-yard scramble to set up Ole Miss’ last go-ahead touchdown. Lacy rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries, reentering the game after his hamstring injury and grinding out tough yards. Leading receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III combined for nine catches and 117 yards, while junior Cayden Lee came up big (five for 67) and Wright had three huge catches, all in the second half. Carneiro’s huge leg shined again. On defense, Suntarine Perkins had 1.5 sacks, and linebacker TJ Dottery and safety Wydett Williams Jr. made big plays early during Miami’s last drive, which could have been remembered differently with a different ending.

Pete Golding inherited a seemingly impossible situation with Kiffin leaving, but Ole Miss closed ranks and came achingly close to earning a spot in the national title game. Better yet, stars such as Chambliss (if he is granted an extra year of eligibility) and Lacy have already committed to staying in Oxford despite Kiffin’s efforts to bring them to Baton Rouge. Some stars have exhausted their eligibility, but Ole Miss enters 2026 battle-hardened and full of upside.

What’s next

Miami will officially play in its first national title game in 23 seasons. The Hurricanes will likely be underdogs against Indiana or Oregon, but they will be playing in their home stadium, and they have to feel like the patented team of destiny right about now. Close games have been a massive issue for the Canes at times under Mario Cristobal, but in their past three games, they’ve won at Texas A&M with a late end zone stop, beaten Ohio State by 10 with clutch execution and somehow found a way past Ole Miss despite so many bounces seemingly going against them.

Beck had a putrid start to the second half but produced late heroics. Mark Fletcher Jr. was again brilliant, rushing for 133 yards. CharMar Brown was again a tough-yardage master, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown. Marion was a secret weapon, and Toney, the talented freshman, set up a touchdown with a tough third-down conversion in the first half and scored one himself in the fourth quarter.

The defense couldn’t corral Chambliss, recording only one sack, but the Canes allowed only one big run to Lacy and the backs. And they absolutely dominated third downs: Ole Miss went just 2-for-10 while the Canes went 11-for-19. Credit to the Rebels for nearly winning anyway, but the Canes controlled most of what they wanted to control. They hogged the ball beautifully, and when that couldn’t win them the game, they sped up the tempo and won a back-and-forth final quarter.