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Why missing Champions League can boost Premier League teams: What data shows

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  • Ryan O’HanlonApr 10, 2026, 06:13 AM ET

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      Ryan O’Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He’s also the author of “Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game’s Analytics Revolution.”

Multiple Authors

Everyone mocked him at the time, but Arsene Wenger had a point.

In 2012, after Arsenal lost to Sunderland in the FA Cup and while they were down 4-0 against AC Milan before the second leg of their round of 16 tie in the Champions League, Wenger solidified the focus for the rest of his team’s season. He said: “The first trophy is to finish in the top four.”

While this lack of ambition seemed to some like it was a cause of Arsenal’s then-seven-year trophy drought, that wasn’t quite true. The construction costs of Arsenal’s new stadium had hamstrung their ability to spend as much as Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea — Wenger was merely citing the economic reality in which he was living.

To have a shot at competing with those teams in the future, the Gunners needed to secure the extra millions of dollars in revenue generated from qualifying for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

While you don’t get any silverware for finishing in the top four, finishing there was much more likely to lead to a Premier League or a Champions League title than winning the FA Cup or the League Cup. And if a top-four finish is more important than two of the competitions they hand out trophies for, well it kind of is its own trophy.

It’s not like we don’t treat it as such, either — the top-four race is one of the three ways we give texture to each season along with the title race and the relegation battle. (I don’t think it was done on purpose, but I applaud our collective hive mind for not settling on “race” to describe a competition between teams that are trying to avoid, rather than achieve, something.)

Even with the added guarantee of a fifth Champions League spot for the Premier League, this season hasn’t been any different. From here on, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea will mainly be judged by whether or not they secure one of the five spots. As Liverpool manager Arne Slot put it back in February: “If we don’t have Champions League football, it’s definitely not been an acceptable season. … That does have an enormous impact on the way this club is run.”

The impact on revenue is massive, but in the world of fixture bloat and player burnout, might there be a hidden benefit to missing out on the world’s most prestigious competition for a season? After all, Man United and Aston Villa, two of the teams in the current top four, aren’t playing in the Champions League this year.

Maybe missing out on the Champions League isn’t such a terrible thing for Premier League teams after all?

• Premier League without set-piece goals: What would the table look like?
• Tracker: Champions League qualification, Premier League relegation
• 2026 World Cup squads ranked: All 48 national teams

The economic impact of missing out on the Champions League

Let’s take Liverpool as an example.

After nearly winning the quadruple in the 2021-22 season, everything fell apart the following year. Jurgen Klopp’s team finished fifth — the first, and only time, in his eight full seasons at the club when they didn’t qualify for the Champions League.

The impact here is pretty straightforward. Per data from Kieron O’Connor’s excellent Swiss Ramble, here’s the club’s broadcast revenue from European competition in all of Klopp’s full seasons at the club:

• 2016-17: none
• 2017-18: €81 million
• 2018-19: €111 million
• 2019-20: €80 million
• 2020-21: €88 million
• 2021-22: €120 million
• 2022-23: €84 million
• 2023-24: €27 million

In 2016-17, Liverpool weren’t in Europe competition at all, and in 2023-24, they were in the Europa League. As Slot said in February: “When I arrived here and only signed Federico Chiesa, it was after a Europa League season.”

This is true, and less revenue means less money to spend on improving the team. But what’s interesting is that Slot is suggesting that the financial impact from missing out on the Champions League actually comes a year later. The transfer spending at the club suggests as much, too.

The €12 million deal for Chiesa was Liverpool’s only permanent move in the summer of 2024. But after the disappointing 2022-23 campaign, Liverpool spent €172 million combined (per Transfermarkt) on the acquisitions of Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Wataru Endo ahead of a season without Champions League matches.

Don’t forget: They also agreed to a nine-figure, Premier League-record deal with Brighton for Moisés Caicedo, who instead decided to join Chelsea — another club that failed to qualify for the Champions League after four consecutive top-four finishes.

Now, I’m not totally convinced that Liverpool only cut their spending in 2024 because of the lack of Champions League revenue from the preceding season. They also signed current backup goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili from Valencia to a deal to be made permanent the following season. They had agreed to sign Martín Zubimendi from Real Sociedad too, only for him to make a last-second U-turn and stay in Spain for another season before joining Arsenal this past summer. Plus, they also had to sort out the contract situations for their three best and most expensive players: Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Unlike in 2012, when clubs such as Arsenal were competing financially with the top four teams in all of Europe’s other major leagues and added European revenue might mean you would sign someone who otherwise would’ve went to AC Milan, the biggest Premier League clubs are now only really competing with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain for talent. The rest of the Premier League is competing with the top-four teams in all of Europe’s major leagues now.

The combined commercial and broadcasting revenues generated by the topflight in England means that losing out on Champions League revenue, on average, isn’t as painful as it used to be. In 2022-23, Liverpool and Chelsea ranked seventh and ninth, respectively, in global revenue among all clubs. In 2023-24, with neither club in the Champions League, they ranked eighth and 10th.

The potential benefit of not being able to win the Champions League

In 2016-17, with Liverpool rebounding into the top four after an eighth-place finish and Chelsea winning the Premier League title after a 10th-place finish the previous season, a new theory seemed to emerge: Not having to play in the Champions League was actually beneficial for your Premier League performance.

To test this, a trained astrophysicist and Harvard professor wrote a blog post where he looked at the relationship between the season-to-season change in European matches played by a given team and the season-to-season change in Premier League points won.

“[For] each extra game a team plays in Europe, they can expect to lose half a point relative to the previous season,” he wrote. “So, if a team plays 12 more games, it will be 6 points worse off [on average] than the previous season.”

The author, funnily enough, was Laurie Shaw, who now holds the title of “chief scientist” at Liverpool. At the time Shaw wrote the piece, a number of other analyses had determined that there was no “hangover effect” for teams playing in Europe. In other words, teams that had just played a match in Europe didn’t perform worse than expected in their following Premier League match. Shaw’s work suggested that there’s a kind of cumulative effect from extra devoting resources — energy, strategy, travel, etc. — to European matches.

Last month, the blogger Markstats looked at the past three seasons and found there still to be no clear hangover effect in the Premier League. Since we can’t ask Shaw to just rerun his analysis for every season since 2016-17, I decided to do it — but only with Champions League matches.

This is how it looks when you plot all of the pairs of seasons when a team competed in the Champions League in at least one of them:

visualization

While it’s not a strong relationship, it’s close to the same relationship that Shaw observed in 2016. You can see it in the downward slope of the trendline.

Based on this data: For every extra Champions League game a team plays, they lose a little more than a third of a point on average. So, every three extra games in the Champions League are worth about one point in the Premier League table. And if we remove last season, when the total number of Champions League games increased for everyone, then the numbers match Shaw’s — a point lost for every two extra Champions League games played.

Now, there are lots of confounding factors here. When some teams miss the Champions League, they’ve usually been unlucky to an unsustainable degree. The same goes in the other direction: Sometimes teams qualify for the Champions League because of unsustainable hot streaks. How much of this is inevitable regression to the mean? And how much of this is a genuine decline in performance related to the extra intense games on your schedule?

But at the very least, there’s something here. It seems reasonable to expect the best teams to actually play more games in the Champions League, so the fact that on average teams perform better in the Premier League while playing fewer Champions League games suggests to me that there is a real negative effect of the added toll of extra high-level matches.

I also looked at the total number of games played from season to season across all competitions, and there’s basically no relationship to changes in points, so that suggests there’s something about the Champions League in particular that affects domestic performance.

Of course, it would be absurd to say that it’s better not to be in the Champions League. We don’t watch or care about sports because of the financial results they produce — the finances help produce the results and get produced by the results. The point of all of this is to try to win things like the Champions League and the Premier League. The way you do that is by, you know, actually participating in the Champions League.

But I do think we’ve potentially entered a stage of the Premier League’s growth where the teams are so rich, and the competition is so grueling, that there’s potential for a one-year exponential boost for a club that drops out of the competition. You’ll still have lots of money to spend on your roster because of the European revenue from the previous season, you’re probably going to have some better luck going forward, and you’ll get a full season without the potentially deleterious effects of all those midweek Champions League matches.

Whoever misses out on the top five this season would seem like a logical pick to bounce back into the Champions League places next year. So, Liverpool or Chelsea fans: There’s something that might be able to help you sleep at night.

Fear and loathing at OpenAI

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Sam Altman’s tenure at OpenAI has been… messy. Messy to the point where Altman was briefly fired from his role as CEO, only to be reinstated days later, at which point he began reshaping the organization permanently. This week, The New Yorker published a deep look at Altman, his time at OpenAI, and the questions about whether he’s the right person to be in charge of a technology as important and transformative as artificial intelligence.

On this episode of The Vergecast, David and Nilay discuss OpenAI, the profile, Altman, and everything. Eventually. First, they have some projects to talk about. Nilay has finally concluded his journey to turn an iMac into a monitor, though he ran into a few snags along the way. David managed to vibe-code the productivity app of his dreams, though not before accidentally tapping into someone else’s dreams. The hosts compare notes on their projects, their Claude Code experience, and where this whole vibe-coding thing might be headed.

After that, it’s OpenAI time. We discuss all the ways in which Altman is just an exceedingly normal businessman, and all the reasons AI either does or doesn’t demand a different kind of leader. Your answer to that question almost certainly depends on just how big a deal you think AI will be.

If you want to know more about everything we discuss in this episode, here are some links to get you started:

Who Is Lauren Conrad’s Husband? Her Love Story With William Tell

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She was confident the USC law school grad would be a good father and thrilled when he proved her right, the pair welcoming Liam in July 2017 and his little brother Charlie two years later. 

“He’s so engaged with our kids,” she told People of her fellow Southern California native. “He’s the parent who does funny voices when he reads the story. He coaches every team they’re on. It’s been really fun to parent together.” 

Lightyears removed from her love triangle days on Laguna Beach, Conrad noted the key to her successful marriage is that they’re each “good communicators.” 

“We had to learn how the other one communicated,” she acknowledged to People, “and it took some time. But I think because of that, it’s a fun, easy relationship. There’s always going to be hard stuff, but if you can figure it out together and be like, ‘Alright, let’s sit down and talk this out calmly,’ then it’s nice. I’ve done it the other way, and it’s not fun.” 

Sometimes the earth, the sun, the star all align and perfect feels so perfect. The proof is in these sweet pics. 

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Sights and sounds from the first round of the Masters

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The 90th edition of the Masters Tournament began Thursday, kicking off the first golf major of the year.

It is one of the most iconic events in sports, and there was, as always, no shortage of memorable scenery at Augusta National as the tournament began. From the course to the concessions, all the classic staples accompanied the on-course play.

Here are the top sights and sounds from the first round of the Masters.

Rose moves up with a birdie

Nothing but net for Conners

Amen Corner is no match for Adam Scott

Sweet eagle from Højgaard

Rory is out to defend his title

Scottie gets it done on Hole 2

Lowry secures the eagle

Clutch approach from Reitan

Xander gives a fan a gift

Xander Schauffele‘s tee shot on the eighth hole was one he’d likely want to forget … but at least one fan will remember it forever.

play

0:29

Xander Schauffele’s tee shot somehow ends up in patron’s bag

Xander Schauffele hooks his drive on Hole 8 and it somehow ends up in a patron’s bag of merchandise.

History for Patrick Reed

Unreal birdie from Haotong Li

Reed makes a sweet eagle

Homa moving up early

Starting off the tournament with legends



The Exit 8 movie is even better if you play the game first

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avrotusa
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There’s an intriguing new video game adaptation to watch in theaters — and no, it’s not that one. Exit 8, based on the game of the same name, hits the big screen on April 10th, and it’s part of a burgeoning trend of horror movies directly inspired by indie games and liminal scares on YouTube. (See: the surprise success of Iron Lung and the upcoming Backrooms feature.) It’s also the rare adaptation where I’d highly recommend playing the game before seeing the movie. Doing so makes the surreal experience of the film into something even stranger, and the good news is playing the game is a very easy thing to do.

The game is a curious project to be adapted in the first place. (Also, for clarity: The game is called The Exit 8, while the movie is just Exit 8.) It has no cutscenes or story, and there are barely even any characters. Instead, it’s more about the setting. You play as a nameless figure trapped in a looping hallway in a Tokyo subway station, and the only way to escape is to follow a very strict set of rules, which involve spotting anomalies and turning back if something seems off. It’s extremely creepy, with posters that move and an unsettling businessman who seems unaware of your presence. And as you play the game, and scour your surroundings in search of anomalies, you’ll become intimately familiar with the hallway. After a playthrough I could tell you exactly how many lights are on the ceiling and what each poster on the wall looks like.

The film version adds a narrative over this skeleton of an idea, as you follow a young man who becomes trapped in the hallway and desperately tries to find a way out. You learn a little about what the loop actually means, and there are a handful of other characters trying to understand the place, which adds a different kind of tension. You even discover that the silent businessman has a backstory. But as an adaptation, one of the most remarkable things about Exit 8 is how vividly it evokes the game. The set is almost identical aside from a new addition (which factors into one of the movie’s most terrifying sequences), and the nameless protagonist has to follow the exact same set of rules as players of the game.

What this means is that if you still have the experience of playing The Exit 8 fresh in your mind, watching the movie becomes very trippy. The first time I watched Exit 8 I couldn’t help searching the walls and ceiling, looking for anomalies I’d seen in the game I had just played. It helped really immerse me in the setting. Watching the film was almost like watching a really elaborate let’s play — which was actually part of the intention. When I spoke to Exit 8 director Genki Kawamura last year, he told me that he spent a lot of time watching YouTube to see how people played the game, which in turn helped influence how various characters in the movie approach the mystery.

“Everyone is playing by the same rules and in the same space, but each player makes different mistakes, and they have different reactions to each failure,” he explained. “And I thought that because of that, the personality of the individual player comes to the surface.” He described his approach to adapting The Exit 8 as an attempt at creating “a new cinematic experience that blurs the lines between video game and cinema.”

The best way to appreciate what he’s going for is to play the game. Thankfully The Exit 8 is very accessible: It only costs a few bucks, is available on a huge range of platforms (including mobile), has very simple gameplay, and, provided you don’t get stuck, lasts about an hour. That’s a small price to pay to better enjoy one of the most interesting horror movies of the year.

Gossip Girl Cast: Where Are They Now?

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Meanwhile, though Meester, who’s turning 40 on April 9, got her happy ending, did Blair when she married Chuck Bass (Ed Westwick) at series’ end?

And, for that matter, was surprisingly prolific blogger Dan Humphrey, played by Badgley, truly meant to be with Blake Lively‘s Serena van der Woodsen?

“I think they ended up with who they were meant to be with,” Badgley observed on Podcrushed, to which Meester agreed, “I think you’re right.”

Happily, the actors who played this privileged lot haven’t done too shabbily for themselves, either, since the series ended in 2012.

Though sometimes looking for answers only leads to more questions, and sometimes you’re better off not knowing, this is not one of those times. So, read on and find out what the stars of Gossip Girl are up to now:

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Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool, Real Madrid work on mega midfield swap deal

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Real Madrid‘s Eduardo Camavinga and Liverpool‘s Alexis Mac Allister could swap clubs, while Manchester City have joined the race to sign 16-year-old Hertha Berlin defensive midfielder Kennet Eichhorn. Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.

Transfers home page | Men’s winter grades | Women’s grades

TRENDING RUMORS

– Real Madrid and Liverpool are working on deals for Eduardo Camavinga and Alexis Mac Allister to swap clubs, according to TEAMtalk. The Reds have been long-time admirers of Camavinga, while Los Blancos are planning a reshuffle in their midfield. The Spanish side are pushing to sign Manchester City‘s Rodri but also want another midfielder alongside the 29-year-old, with Chelsea‘s Enzo Fernández and Paris Saint-Germain‘s Vitinha being considered as well as Mac Allister.

– Manchester City have joined the race to sign 16-year-old Hertha Berlin defensive midfielder Kennet Eichhorn, says Fabrizio Romano. Eichhorn is considered one of the top young midfielders in Europe and has impressed in the German Bundesliga despite his age. City have made a habit of targeting young players in recent windows, with U.S. wonderkid Cavan Sullivan (when he turns 18 in 2027), Norway’s Sverre Nypan and Brazil defender Vitor Reis already signed as teenagers.

– AC Milan and Juventus are among the clubs keen to land Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski, as reported by Nicolo Schira. Both Serie A clubs are interested in bringing in the 37-year-old if he leaves the Blaugrana as a free agent this summer, but he has still not decided on his future. There have been no official offers yet, but there is genuine interest from Italy despite the Poland international’s high salary.

– Borussia Dortmund are weighing up another move to sign Manchester United winger Jadon Sancho, who is currently on loan at Aston Villa, says Bild. Sancho, 26, moved to Dortmund from Manchester City’s academy in 2017 and flourished before he was allowed to join Man United for €85 million in 2021. But after three loan moves (including back to Dortmund in 2024) he is set to leave the club on a free transfer in the summer. Dortmund are also watching Hoffenheim striker Fisnik Asllani but reportedly aren’t currently interested in Newcastle United‘s Nick Woltemade, and the club’s sporting director Lars Ricken said: “We are currently looking at a lot of players and analyzing them. We are assessing whether they can improve our team. We are doing the same with Jadon.”

– Chelsea are very impressed with the progress of Werder Bremen center back Karim Coulibaly and have entered the race to sign him this summer, as reported by Florian Plettenberg. Coulibaly, 18, is reportedly being scouted by various top clubs including Real Madrid, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli. Werder Bremen are hoping to bring in a fee of around €50 million from clubs looking to sign the Germany U21 international.

EXPERT TAKE

ESPN’s Madrid correspondent Alex Kirkland looks at Eduardo Camavinga’s future.

There’s no doubt that Camavinga’s future at Real Madrid is being questioned right now like never before. The midfielder — still just 23 — previously had persistent injuries as an excuse for not consolidating his place in Madrid’s starting XI since arriving in 2021. But this season, he has got plenty of opportunities (1,217 minutes in LaLiga, and 454 minutes in the Champions League) under both Xabi Alonso and Álvaro Arbeloa, and hasn’t made the most of them.

This Madrid team badly needs a player with many of Camavinga’s characteristics. But instead, at this crunch stage of the season, Arbeloa has opted for Arda Güler and young Thiago Pitarch in his midfield four alongside Aurelien Tchouameni and Fede Valverde. In Madrid’s Champions League quarterfinal first leg against Bayern Munich on Tuesday, Camavinga was an unused substitute. That came after Camavinga was singled out for criticism by many fans and the Madrid media for his role in Real Mallorca’s opening goal in the team’s 2-1 defeat in LaLiga last Saturday, when he failed to track goal scorer Manu Morlanes’ run from midfield, in a loss which came close to ruling Madrid out of the title race.

Camavinga has a long-term contract until 2029, so he’s also a player who, if Madrid do want to revamp the squad this summer after a disappointing campaign, could raise significant funds with a departure. The names mentioned here — Rodri, Mac Allister, Fernandez and Vitinha — have all been mentioned frequently as potential Madrid targets to bring some of the qualities this season’s midfield has lacked. ESPN has reported that Vitinha is the player Madrid like most, but signing him from PSG would be extremely difficult, while Fernandez’s contract until 2032 at Chelsea is another obstacle.

Mac Allister would be a more feasible target, with his Liverpool contract up in 2028, although it’s not yet clear how much the Premier League club would expect to receive in a transfer fee if they were to let him go, and swap deals very rarely materialize. But still, Camavinga’s future is definitely one to watch this summer.

OTHER RUMORS

play

1:10

Burley: Arsenal were dull and boring vs Sporting CP

Craig Burley believes Arsenal were underwhelming and failed to impress despite their 1-0 win over Sporting CP.

– Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are in talks about the prospect of signing AFC Bournemouth center back Marcos Senesi. (Caught Offside)

– Everton are not expected to trigger the £50 million clause to permanently sign winger Jack Grealish from Manchester City but are confident they can reach an agreement for him to stay. (Athletic)

– Juventus and Atletico Madrid want to sign Ederson but Atalanta won’t lower their valuation of around €40 million for the midfielder. (Tuttosport)

– West Ham United have no interest in letting midfielder Mateus Fernandes leave despite concrete interest from Manchester United and others. (TEAMtalk)

– Arsenal are stepping up their interest in signing a center back as they look at Real Madrid’s Victor Valdepenas and Como’s Jacobo Ramon. (Caught Offside)

– Central defender Gleison Bremer could leave Juventus in the summer, with Tottenham Hotspur interested. (Gazzetta dello Sport)

– Real Madrid’s Gonzalo Garcia has emerged as a serious option for Newcastle United as they look to sign a striker. (TEAMtalk)

– Tottenham Hotspur are pushing to sign Manchester City goalkeeper James Trafford. (TEAMtalk)

– Aston Villa have set their sights on a deal to sign West Ham United winger Crysencio Summerville in the summer. (Football Insider)

– Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel is more likely to move to Newcastle United than he is to join Chelsea. (Football Insider)

– AC Milan are willing to offer Leon Goretzka a three-year contract worth at least €5 million-per-season, as they aim to beat off competition to sign the Bayern Munich midfielder as a free agent this summer. (Gazzetta dello Sport)

– There is a three-way race between Napoli, AC Milan and Roma for Kerim Alajbegovic, who has been re-signed by Bayer Leverkusen from RB Salzburg. (Calciomercato)

– Napoli have put Benfica’s Richard Rios at the top of the list of players to strengthen their midfield, but no official offer has been submitted yet. (Sky Italia)

– Nottingham Forest are hopeful they can sign Internazionale midfielder Davide Frattesi for under the €40 million agreed in January. (Football Insider)

– Freiburg are interested in Leeds United midfielder Ao Tanaka, but he is leaning towards a move in the Premier League. (Florian Plettenberg)

Sources: Pistons’ Cunningham expected to return vs. Bucks

By
avrotusa
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Cade Cunningham is expected to make his return Wednesday night for the Detroit Pistons against the Milwaukee Bucks following a collapsed left lung, sources told ESPN.

Cunningham missed 11 games following the injury, which occurred against the Washington Wizards on March 17. The Pistons have gone 8-3 and on Saturday clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference throughout the playoffs.

It was initially believed Cunningham would miss the rest of the regular season and only be able to ramp up in the week leading up to the playoffs, which begin on April 18.

But he’s ready for the final three games of the regular season after being listed as doubtful the last couple of days.

If Cunningham plays in the last three regular season games, he would fall one short of the 65-game minimum for post-season awards honors. However, there is language in the collective bargaining agreement, called the “extraordinary circumstances challenge” that would allow Cunningham’s situation to be reviewed by an independent arbitrator.

The independent arbitrator would be jointly selected by the NBA and the NBPA and the language is broad, so Cunningham could have a chance to qualify.

Cunningham is averaging 24.5 points, 9.9 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 34.4 minutes per game this season.

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