As the nation’s major truckmakers seek to abandon California’s stricter-than-federal emissions rules, experts are weighing whether this U-turn could allow new players to disrupt the market.

“All your competitors just announced their strategy,” Craig Segall, former deputy executive officer and assistant chief counsel of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), told The Hill. 

“How quickly can you ramp up to eat their lunch?” Segall asked. 

This now unmasked strategy — an about-face on compliance with the Golden State’s heavy-duty vehicle standards — came to light this week when four manufacturers sued California regulators over the matter. 

Soon after, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) declared that a voluntary “Clean Truck Partnership” between the companies and the state was “unenforceable.” 

Then, Friday, the Department of Justice sued California about the same partnership, in a bid to “advance President Donald J. Trump’s commitment to end the electric vehicle (EV) mandate.”

The week’s initial lawsuit, filed Monday by Daimler Truck, International Motors, PACCAR and the Volvo Group, alleged the federal government had deemed California’s emissions rules “unlawful” in June.

At the time, President Trump signed off on three congressional resolutions revoking a Biden administration waiver that had allowed the state to set these rules. Under the 1970 Clean Air Act, California can create emissions standards that are stricter than federal norms but must acquire a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency to do so.

In Monday’s filing, the truckmakers — also called original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) — argued California’s demands have “threatened” their ability to “design, develop, manufacture and sell heavy-duty vehicles and engines.”

The lawsuit noted the Department of Justice had instructed manufacturers “to immediately cease and desist compliance with California’s preempted and unlawful mandates,” leaving the companies “caught in the crossfire.”

CARB said it would not comment on pending litigation.

The FTC declaration that followed on Tuesday determined a 2023 voluntary agreement between truckmakers and CARB — the “Clean Truck Partnership” — was “unenforceable.” In that partnership, the companies had agreed to abide by California’s emissions standards in exchange for certain concessions.

One such standard was the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, requiring 7.5 percent of heavy-duty vehicles to be emissions-free by 2035. A second, the Omnibus Regulation, focused on slashing nitrogen oxide releases by 90 percent and updating engine testing protocols.

Segall described Monday’s lawsuit as “an audacious move,” noting in a Thursday op-ed that truckmakers just two years ago supported the Clean Truck Partnership, which he helped negotiate.

He accused companies such as Daimler, which controls 40 percent of the country’s truck market, of “badly letting the trucking industry down.” Meanwhile, he warned, China is accelerating electric truck adoption.

A possible goal of the sudden turnaround is to move costs onto the industry and “to drag out the transition from diesel as long as possible,” Segall told The Hill.

Because the companies haven’t faced serious new competition yet — disruptors such as Tesla in the car space — and have the federal administration “clearly on their side,” they “can burn the regulators for the fourth largest economy in the world,” Segall observed.

Yet at the same time, Segall noted, the truckmakers are up against a billion-person market in China, where other manufacturers “are rapidly eating their market share.’

The U.S. trucking giants, he continued, could jeopardize their presence in the world market while also getting the country “stuck in diesel for a few years.”

“That’s not a long-term win for them,” Segall said, arguing things may change when a new president enters office in 2029. 

The new president might realize “with horror, the U.S. is badly behind on EVs,” Segall said.

Policymakers at that point, he explained, could either revive CARB’s rules or enact national-level legislation. Rather than leaving the freight system “stuck in diesel” in 2040, Segall said he believes the industry will return “hat in hand” to Congress and California.

Pointing to the fact that delivery firms such as Amazon have smaller EV trucks operating nationwide, Segall forecast that “giant semitrailers” will make a similar transition soon.

With that in mind, he stressed there is “an interesting opening” for other competitors, such as Chinese electric truck startup Windrose.

Industry veteran Rustam Kocher echoed these sentiments in a recent post on LinkedIn, calling upon Windrose, other Chinese e-truck manufacturers and Tesla Semi to fill in this gap and “let the market-share eating competition commence.”

“This industry is changing, just like the light-duty industry is changing,” Kocher told The Hill.

While Kocher said he believes the companies made their decisions due to the short-term profit margins, he argued that “the profitability they’re going to gain off of combustion engines is going to change.”

“At some point, the resale value of those things is going to drop off the end of the Earth,” he added, noting Windrose or Tesla Semi are “perfect examples” of market entrants that could perform better and cheaper.

Kocher, who is now semiretired in Portugal, worked in various electrification-related roles for Daimler Truck North America from 2011-19 and then served as transportation electrification manager for Portland General Electric.

During his time at Daimler, he said he helped launch the e-mobility group and worked on developing fast-charging standards “with the full support of Daimler Truck, with the full support of everyone else in the trucking OEM world.”

Kocher acknowledged that from a business perspective, although electric trucks are viable, they are not currently as profitable as existing diesel trucks and cost more up front.

Yet they cost less to operate per mile and save money for fleets due to their reduced maintenance needs — needs that drive profits for truckmakers, according to Kocher.

“Every electric truck they put into the market means they’re taking a cut on profit,” he said. “They’re not going to make those maintenance and after-sale part sales.”

Recognizing the profitability “conundrum” that the industry is facing, Kocher expressed sadness that the firms he had held in high esteem decided to choose this direction.

“To see them turn around and do this, it’s made me very disappointed and frustrated,” he added.

The Hill has reached out to Daimler Truck, International Motors, PACCAR and the Volvo Group, as well as to the California regulators, for comment.

President Trump’s tariffs could raise the cost of some of the most popular imports in American grocery aisles, from coffee and olive oil to wine, matcha and spices.

After the “Liberation Day” tariffs kicked in worldwide in early August, businesses and consumers alike are watching closely for when — and how much — prices tick up.

Inflation data released Tuesday did not show an overall increase in food prices, but economists say that’s likely to change as businesses pass more costs on to consumers. Wholesale prices surged 0.9 percent last month, the biggest monthly jump since June 2022 and a sign that inflation may not be cooling off just yet.

“Many of us anticipated ahead of time that you might see some faster movement in groceries, partly because you can’t stockpile stuff right in the same way,” said Martha Gimbel, the Budget Lab at Yale’s executive director. 

“You can’t stockpile a year’s worth of avocados. That being said, the price increases that we’ve seen in food so far are pretty muted, so we’ll just have to see what happens,” she said.

Here are six iconic imported grocery products that could be impacted by Trump’s tariffs.

Coffee

Coffee prices were already up before a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, the top coffee importer to the U.S., went into effect last week.

Coffee prices sharply rose 25 percent over the past three months, according to inflation data released Tuesday. Reuters reported Tuesday that Brazilian coffee exports have started seeing postponements to their U.S. shipments.

How hard your morning habit gets hit varies between brand, shop and choice of bean. 

Nespresso pods, for instance, are entirely produced in Switzerland, which is subject to a 40 percent tariff. Colombia, the second-largest importer of coffee to the U.S., only pays Trump’s 10 percent baseline duty.

“Some importers might shift sourcing toward countries with exemptions, but in many cases the increased costs will all be passed on to you, the coffee lover,” Todd Carmichael, the co-founder of La Colombe, wrote in The Washington Post earlier this week. 

“Surely, coffee is too essential and too global to put at the center of a geopolitical chess match.”

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said Wednesday he would introduce a bill with bipartisan support to repeal tariffs on coffee.

Olive oil 

Trump’s tariffs have only added to the uncertainty facing olive oil producers, who are grappling with climate shocks. Extended droughts in Spain in 2022 slashed production, and other top production regions like Sicily and Greece have also confronted record-high temperatures.

Allen Dushi, a co-founder of olive oil brand Graza, said the company has held off on increasing prices, adding that any uptick in import costs could take at least three to four months to reflect on grocery shelves. Many retailers or distributors require 60 to 90 days notice for a change, he said.

The company uses Spanish olives, and production and bottling are all based in Spain. That limits the extent to which the company can keep stocks in the U.S., which would have to be finished bottles. 

“We are not trying to stockpile inventory, because our priority number one is always the quality of what’s inside the bottle,” Dushi said. “That’s not something we really compromise on.”

Switching to American production wouldn’t help, Dushi added; the company would still have to pay tariffs on Spanish olives, as American olive production doesn’t meet the same standard. 

“So as long as you’re buying the oil, and importing the oil, you’re going to be paying the tariff on that,” he said. 

Spain and Italy accounted for two-thirds of U.S. olive oil imports in 2024. Both are subject to the 15 percent tariff under the trade deal struck between the European Union and the U.S. in July. Other top producers are still subject to tariffs, such as Tunisia (25 percent), Turkey (15 percent) and Argentina (10 percent).

Wine

The July U.S.-E.U. trade deal was seen as a starting point. As negotiations have continued, the beverage industry and European officials have pushed for an exemption for wine and spirits, The Wall Street Journal reported.

A group of nearly 60 associations representing wine, beer and liquor interests warned last week that the industry could face nearly $2 billion in lost sales and have to cut more than 25,000 jobs in the U.S. as a result of the tariff. The coalition, Toasts not Tariffs, pointed to products like cognac that have to be produced in a specific region and cannot be switched to a tariff-free alternative.

Eric Foret is a wine buyer at Le French Wine Club, which operates several locations in New York City and Washington, D.C., alongside an online shop. He said that he had to increase his prices, although they were fairly gradual.

“It’s a dollar here, a dollar there, a dollar here, a dollar there and then at the end, you spend ten dollars more on the bottle of wine, you don’t even notice it,” he said.

In addition to France, which accounted for more than one-third of U.S. wine imports last year, the EU tariff impacts shipments from Italy (33 percent of imports) and Spain (6 percent).

Matcha

A 15 percent tariff on Japan could impact the price of a matcha latte — already a pricey product before tax, tip and oat milk.

While U.S. trade data does not specifically track matcha, Japan generally accounts for about half of American green tea imports by value each year, and Japanese origin is a selling point for many specialty matcha shops.

The industry is also grappling with the impacts of record heat waves in Japan last summer that curbed harvests of tencha, the tea leaves dried and ground into matcha. Demand for the vibrant green beverage has also soared in recent years, driven by young enthusiasts and social media. 

David Cooper runs Spot of Tea, a Washington, D.C.-based shop with three locations selling matcha and other tea drinks. He considers himself lucky to have bought his 2025 stockpile before the tariffs and shortages hit. 

Now, however, “we’re looking at how much stock we have in our warehouse and then how much we’re going through per month and doing the math and trying to push the suppliers to finalize the order as quickly as possible,” he said. “It’s definitely a little anxiety-inducing.”

The uncertainty for the drink industry even extends to things like cups, Cooper said, which his shop sources from South Korea.

“I think on the day I was about to put the deposit down, Trump announced 25 percent tariffs for Korea. And so our supplier was basically, like, we cannot absorb all this cost,” he said. 

“It’s just so hard to tell at this point what percentage tariff is actually going to be applied.”

Chocolate

Switzerland, home to many famous chocolate brands, is facing a 39 percent duty, one of the highest in the world. 

Some of the country’s larger manufacturers will be able to escape some tariff impacts because they already have production sites in the U.S. 

Lindt & Sprüngli, for example, produces the “vast majority” of its products for the American market in New Hampshire, a company spokesperson said. That plant will still have to factor in tariff effects on raw materials like cocoa, imported from countries like Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Other companies, however, have made their brand on manufacturing in Switzerland. That’s the case for Läderach, which is now figuring out how to manage “massive additional costs,” its CEO said this week.

“I cannot change the tariffs. It is only human to get angry about them, enquire on who’s guilt they are or be discouraged,” Johannes Läderach wrote in a LinkedIn post. “But none of these options change anything, so I better pray for serenity to accept it.”

Swiss leaders have attempted to negotiate with Washington on the tariff, which also impacts cheese and other exports. Swiss officials are now reportedly weighing whether to cancel an order for American F-35 fighter jets.

Spices

Trump shocked many observers by raising tariffs on India to 50 percent last week, citing its purchase of Russian oil.

India is the top U.S. importer for spices like nutmeg, cardamom, anise, fennel, coriander, and cumin. Indonesia, another key producer, is subject to a 19 percent duty after negotiating with the White House.

The American Spice Trade Association said in a Tuesday letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that many of its products could not be cultivated in the U.S..

“The importation of spices directly supports approximately 50,000 U.S. jobs across processing, quality assurance, distribution, and product development,” the association said.

Spice producer McCormick said in late June that tariffs could cost it as much as $90 million a year and that it was planning to raise some prices by the end of the year.