Democrats are making a play for Ohio in next year’s Senate race as former Sen. Sherrod Brown prepares an expected comeback attempt.
The Buckeye State was once firmly purple, but has become increasingly red in the Trump era. President Trump won the state in 2024 with 55 percent of the vote, and Brown lost his bid for reelection to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), winning 46.5 percent of the vote.
Those totals show Brown was much more popular with Ohio voters than former President Biden and former Vice President Harris, and Democrats think a lower-turnout midterm election could carry them to victory.
“When Trump is on the ballot, as Sherrod painfully found out, it’s hard to win because his turnout is high, and he ends up spiking turnout in red parts of the state,” said David Pepper, a former state Democratic Party chair who led the party during Brown’s last successful run in 2018.
But Pepper noted that Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, and he said a hidden trend has been conservative-leaning counties not being quite as solidly Republican in some elections more recently.
“If that continues to be a trend in ‘26, all of a sudden Ohio is a winnable state for good Democratic candidates,” he said.
Still, Republicans say the state is increasingly out of reach for any Democrat given the national party’s image.
“This is a place where [President] Trump’s endorsement still matters a lot,” said Ohio Republican strategist Jordan Ohler. “Our side is as excited as they’ve ever been, maybe short of President Trump running himself.”
While Ohio has lost its status as the quintessential swing state representing the median of the country, it was key in the 2024 Senate elections, as Brown’s loss to Moreno, along with losses by Democratic incumbents in Montana and Pennsylvania, helped flip the chamber to Republican control. The state stands to be just as critical next year.
As Democrats try to chart a path back to the majority in 2026, they need to look past the obvious battlegrounds to make up their 53-47 deficit. Maine and North Carolina are the top pickup opportunities for the party, but they would need two more, and Brown’s likely candidacy makes Ohio top on that list.
The state had a decades-long streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate that ended in 2020, but no Democrat has won statewide since Brown’s last reelection win in 2018.
Heading into the current cycle, Brown was an obvious choice for Democrats, whose eyes have been on the longtime former senator for months to oppose Sen. Jon Husted (R). The former GOP lieutenant governor was chosen by Gov. Mike DeWine (R) to fill Vice President Vance’s Senate seat.
Husted must run in a special election next year to fill the remainder of the term before the seat goes up for election again in 2028.
Presuming Brown enters, he’s likely to clear the field for the Democratic primary and quickly coalesce party support around his comeback bid.
Democrats pointed to Brown’s narrow defeat last year as evidence of his continued viability. In what party members agree was a brutal cycle for the party, Brown still came within a few points of winning.
The country as a whole experienced a rightward shift, and while Trump improved his margin in Ohio compared to 2016 and 2020, the state’s shift was only a couple points. That’s much less dramatic than many other states experienced.
Pepper argued that former President Obama’s two victories in Ohio in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections made the state look easier to win than it is, but it’s always been difficult for Democrats. He said Trump’s name being on the ballot spiked turnout in conservative areas, as it did in other states last year, the first time that Brown and Trump ran at the same time.
At least for now, Republicans aren’t sounding alarms at Brown’s possible candidacy, expressing confidence that they can still hold onto the seat.
Tyson Shepard, Husted’s campaign spokesperson, said Brown would be starting out in the “biggest hole of his political career” if he runs, as he hasn’t faced a candidate like Husted before.
“Brown’s slogans will ring hollow as his coalition walks away, tired of the radical policies he’s forced to support to appease his coastal bosses in California and New York,” Shepard said in a statement.
Republicans previously have attacked Brown as voting overwhelmingly with his party while he has touted his credentials as a champion for the working class and the state.
Senate Republicans’ campaign arm released a memo highlighting Husted’s strengths as a candidate following reports Brown was running. The memo called Husted a “proven conservative who reflects the Ohio of today.”
It noted that Husted hasn’t lost a statewide race before and raised nearly $3 million in the second quarter of 2025, arguing Brown will face a more difficult task against Husted, who is better known than Moreno was last year.
The memo also pointed to a poll from April that showed Husted leading Brown by 3 points in a hypothetical general election and by 6 points among independents.
“Ohio has experienced an electoral transformation thanks to President Trump, as evidenced by Sherrod Brown’s failed reelection in 2024,” the memo states. “We will defeat him by an even wider margin the second time around with a proven winner in Senator Husted.”
Ohler said Brown is Democrats’ best option, but turning to him over a new candidate shows “desperation” and a lack of a bench to come after him.
“They got to bring back this guy who thinks he’s the people’s champ, but like Mike Tyson learns you got to know when to hang up the gloves,” he said.
Democrats have also expressed optimism about their prospects in the state’s gubernatorial race next year. DeWine, a popular two-term governor, is term-limited, and Republicans appear set to turn to former presidential candidate and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
With Brown looking at the Senate, former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) indicated he’s more seriously looking at the governor’s mansion.
“Sherrod Brown’s decision to run for the US Senate has renewed and heightened Tim Ryan’s interest in running for governor to further serve the people of Ohio,” said Ryan spokesperson Dennis Willard.
One major Democrat is already in the race, and the party is hopeful that her popularity could be an asset if she is their gubernatorial nominee.
Amy Acton, who led Ohio’s health department at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, entered the race at the start of the year. Polls have shown a plurality of voters approve of her time leading the department, as she was a face of the state’s pandemic response.
Polling has also shown her ahead of Ryan in a hypothetical primary and about even with Ramaswamy in a hypothetical general election.
“Whether it’s record-setting fundraising, standing room only crowds at events, or numerous polls showing a toss-up race, it’s clear Ohio voters are fired up about Amy Acton and ready to move on from corporate billionaires like Vivek Ramaswamy, who will continue the same failed policies that have left so many Ohioans struggling,” said Acton campaign manager Philip Stein.
Pepper said one strength of Brown and Acton running is they have significantly different backgrounds and appeal to different coalitions, improving Democrats’ chances overall.
“They are complementary to one another, as opposed to redundant,” he said in a Substack post. “Together, their joint coalition spans far wider than what they each bring individually.”
