The wild-card round for the 2025 NFL playoffs has six great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

The games begin Saturday, with Panthers QB Bryce Young making his first playoff appearance, facing the Rams, and another rendition of the Packers-Bears rivalry. Sunday brings a QB duel between the Bills’ Josh Allen and Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, the 49ers visiting the Eagles, and the Chargers traveling cross-country to face Patriots QB Drake Maye. Monday caps the slate with a pesky Texans defense facing Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers.

Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and analytics writer Seth Walder provides a key stat to know for each matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak also gives us bold predictions, while NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X factor to watch. Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks an intriguing bet for each game, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating crews. Plus, our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection, and four analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us final-score picks for every game.

Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full wild-card slate.

Jump to a matchup:
LAR-CAR | GB-CHI | BUF-JAX
SF-PHI | LAC-NE | HOU-PIT

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | LAR -10.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Rams: Los Angeles is expecting WR Davante Adams to return. He has not played since aggravating a left hamstring injury in Week 15. The Rams have missed him most in the red zone, as nine of his league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns have come in goal-to-go situations. According to ESPN Research, the Panthers have allowed only five passing touchdowns in goal-to-go situations this season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL. “[Adams is] such a great player,” QB Matthew Stafford said. “I just have to put it in the ballpark and let him go do his thing.” — Sarah Barshop

What we’re hearing on the Panthers: As big as this game is for QB Bryce Young, it’s bigger for the running game that had 19 yards last week and only 99 the week before. Carolina needs the balance it had in its Week 13 win over the Rams, in which the Panthers ran 40 times for 164 yards. That opened it up for Young, who had three TD passes — including two on fourth-and-short. — David Newton

Stat to know: The Rams rank second in run block win rate (74.1%), while the Panthers are 32nd in run stop win rate (26.2%) and 26th in EPA allowed per designed run. It all sets up for a game where the Rams won’t have to take as many risks because they should have success on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. But they will be without Kevin Dotson (ankle injury), who ranks 24th out of 62 qualifying guards in run block win rate. — Walder

Bold prediction: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan will go off for 100-plus yards in his first career postseason game. McMillan had only one catch for 43 yards in the first contest against the Rams as the Panthers ran the ball a ton. But on a trailing script in this game, he’ll shine. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Panthers WR Jalen Coker. He has a touchdown catch in three of his past five games, including one in Carolina’s win over the Rams. If the Panthers are going to upset L.A., Coker will have to create explosive plays as a boundary target for Young. — Bowen

One bet to consider: OVER 46.5. The over cashes if Carolina scores early and forces a competitive game. The Rams can score 30-plus, while any early Panthers success prevents L.A. coach Sean McVay from slowing the tempo. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The Rams have been one of the NFL’s least penalized teams over the past six seasons, and in 2025 they committed the fewest in the league (5.5 per game). Referee Clete Blakeman’s crew threw an average of 14.4 flags per game. — Seifert

Injuries: Rams | Panthers

Maldonado’s pick: Rams 35, Panthers 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Panthers 17
Solak’s pick: Rams 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 37, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 74.9% (by an average of 9.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Stafford is the kind of QB you want in the huddle … Panthers hint Newton will strike ‘Keep Pounding’ drum before wild card … Canales unfazed by Panthers being underdogs, points to ‘Beast Quake’

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | GB -1.5 (45.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Packers: Green Bay has the advantage in playoff experience. The Packers are in for the third straight season, although they’ve won just one game of their previous two appearances. “You still go out there and get beat, regardless of if you got hella experience or not,” safety and defensive captain Xavier McKinney said. Coach Matt LaFleur said, “Ultimately, it’s about what you do on that day.” — Rob Demovsky

What we’re hearing on the Bears: Chicago wants to avoid another slow offensive start after getting outscored 47-21, running 66 fewer plays, losing the time of possession battle by 10:43 and going 2-for-12 on third downs in the first halves of its past three games. It has been an especially common trend against the Packers this season (The Bears trailed 14-3 and 6-0 at halftime in the teams’ regular-season games). “The biggest thing with us playing complementary football is us getting out to that fast start, having urgency right from the first snap and being able to go out and execute the plan, execute the openers and be able to go put points on the board,” offensive coordinator Declan Doyle said. — Courtney Cronin

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Stephen A. picks NFC wild-card winner between Bears and Packers

Stephen A. Smith breaks down why he’s confident the Bears will defeat the visiting Packers in their NFC wild-card matchup Saturday.

Stat to know: Both QBs should have all the time they need. The Bears lead the league in pass block win rate (73.6%), and on plays without Micah Parsons on the field, the Packers have just a 28.1% pass rush win rate. On the flip side, the Bears also have almost zero pass rush (28.8% PRWR, 31st) while the Packers rank sixth in pass block win rate (69%). — Walder

Bold prediction: The Bears will hit a trick play on the first drive. They almost had one against the Packers in Week 16 — a fourth-and-goal direct snap to RB Kyle Monangai that went over his head. Johnson will have another wrinkle for his first postseason game as coach, and Chicago needs to get out to a faster start in this game. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Bears TE Colston Loveland. He has topped 90 receiving yards in each of his past two games. He has the alignment versatility to work multiple levels of the field in coach Ben Johnson’s offense. Look for Loveland to see steady volume from QB Caleb Williams versus the Packers’ zone-heavy defense. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Bears +1.5. Chicago runs efficiently, forces turnovers and closes better late. Green Bay moves the ball but stalls when it matters. Take the team built to survive discomfort. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Adrian Hill missed two games because of a leg injury, but overall, his crew threw the second-most flags among the 17 crews (17.9). The Bears led the NFL with nine flags for roughing the passer, four more than the next team, but Hill’s crew called only three such penalties. — Seifert

Injuries: Packers | Bears

Maldonado’s pick: Bears 27, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 21
Solak’s pick: Bears 27, Packers 23
Walder’s pick: Packers 34, Bears 31
FPI prediction: GB, 55.9% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will Packers’ Love win a SB like Favre, Rodgers in Year 3? … A new layer in Packers-Bears rivalry: Foam cheese grater hats … ‘Fragile’ no more: How the Bears’ Williams, Johnson evolved

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -1.5 (45.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Bills: Coach Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game in his Bills tenure (0-5). In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills’ defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). The team is embracing this challenge. “Being able to just have that mentality of it’s you and your guys versus everybody else. We embrace that, and, I mean, we’re excited. We could play anywhere,” DE Greg Rousseau said. — Alaina Getzenberg

What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: The headlines might be about the QBs, but this game likely will be decided on the ground: the Jaguars’ top-ranked run defense versus the league’s leading rusher in James Cook III. The Jaguars didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher in the regular season. “It’s a challenge at every level of the defense, and the running back obviously is elite,” defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. “Cook does a tremendous job of finding cracks. You look at some of the stuff on tape, there’s nowhere to go, and he pops through there.” — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little. — Walder

Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can’t run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen’s preferred target. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo’s foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence’s explosive play ability. — Bowen

One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars’ offense is efficient but not fast. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL’s third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. — Seifert

Injuries: Bills | Jaguars

Maldonado’s pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27
Solak’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30
FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Secret sauce to Bills beating the Jaguars? A big key is the O-line … How Jaguars QB Lawrence’s grill gift came to be … Jaguars clinch AFC South, turn sights toward playoffs

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -4.5 (44.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the 49ers: In an alternate universe, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would be working with coach Kyle Shanahan. Fangio spent time with the 49ers during the 2022 offseason, and Shanahan planned to hire him when all signs pointed to DeMeco Ryans leaving (he did, to Houston). But Fangio signed with Miami in 2023, then joined the Eagles in 2024. Now, Shanahan faces the task of scoring against a Fangio-led defense that ranks fifth in points allowed per game (19.1). “[Fangio], schematically, he has always been the best to me,” Shanahan said. “… Has a very sound scheme that he doesn’t need to change up very much. It just naturally changes with how he does his coverages, how he does his fronts, the personnel groupings he does. He’s very good at getting a bead on what you’re trying to do and making you adjust.” — Nick Wagoner

What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Philadelphia was equally respectful toward Shanahan. Fangio was complimentary of Shanahan’s scheme and his ability to call plays, and he noted how “everything’s packaged well together” and is purposeful on offense for San Francisco. The 49ers use motion on 70% of their offensive plays, the third most in the NFL. “It’s an offense that challenges your eyes and your discipline,” LB Jaelan Phillips said. “If you let all of the moving pieces affect you, that’s when they take advantage of people.” — Tim McManus

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What do the 49ers need to do vs. the Eagles?

Field Yates previews the 49ers’ playoff matchup vs. the Eagles.

Stat to know: Since Week 7 — the week after LB Fred Warner‘s ankle injury — the 49ers are allowing opponents a 47% success rate on designed runs (third highest). Though the Eagles haven’t been nearly as successful on the ground this season as they were in 2024, San Francisco’s defense could present the opportunity for RB Saquon Barkley to have a big game. — Walder

Bold prediction: Niners DE Bryce Huff will get a key sack. Huff is the 49ers’ best shot at edge pressure, and he has a quick first step that can challenge Eagles LT Jordan Mailata. Huff has been struggling mightily of late, but expect an impassioned performance here. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Eagles S Reed Blankenship. He will be asked to play a two-way role in the secondary, limiting the middle-of-the-field targets in the 49ers’ route tree while also filling the alleys to cut off RB Christian McCaffrey in the run game. Blankenship had 53 solo tackles and one interception this season. — Bowen

One bet to consider: 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Eagles allow a league-low passing touchdown rate. And Fangio defenses historically suppress red zone passing efficiency, supporting Purdy’s under. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The 49ers were the second-least-penalized team in the NFL (six per game), but they’re tied for the most flags for unnecessary roughness (10). Overall, referee Alan Eck’s crew threw the NFL’s second-fewest flags per game this season (13). — Seifert

Injuries: 49ers | Eagles

Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 20
Moody’s pick: 49ers 20, Eagles 17
Solak’s pick: 49ers 24, Eagles 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Eagles 28
FPI prediction: PHI, 55.4% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: How the NFL’s best QB room got 49ers back to playoffs … What drives the Eagles defense? Meatballs … Injured 49ers LB Bethune to miss playoffs

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | NE -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Chargers: QB Justin Herbert has been playing through a fractured left hand since Week 13, but he said this week that his hand feels the best it has since the injury. Herbert and other key starters rested in Week 18, a decision he said proved beneficial. “I’d say definitely not taking hits on it last week was probably pretty helpful,” he said. — Kris Rhim

What we’re hearing on the Patriots: QB Drake Maye noted that the Chargers don’t allow many explosive plays by keeping everything in front of them and that they are a top-five defense in forcing three-and-outs. So a point of emphasis for the Patriots is to sustain drives and then capitalize on one-on-one matchups. “One-on-one, I like our guys. Ball placement, I like giving them a chance to go make a play. At the same time, be patient. Don’t be bored being efficient and executing underneath and letting things come to you,” Maye said of the approach against the Chargers. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots’ average of 8.7 air yards per attempt ranks as the second most in the NFL. But that makes for an interesting matchup against the Chargers’ defense, which allows opponents just 5.0 air yards per attempt (third lowest). Los Angeles achieves that by being the most two-high-heavy (57%) defense and the league’s most zone-heavy defense (70%). — Walder

Bold prediction: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton will shine on 20-plus carries and 100-plus yards against a poor Patriots run defense, especially if DT Khyiris Tonga (foot) can’t go. The Chargers need to run the ball to protect their offensive line and control pace, and Hampton has looked good since returning from his ankle injury. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Patriots TE Hunter Henry. His ability to uncover and work the seams gives the Patriots an edge in the red zone. Henry has five red zone touchdown receptions this season, including two in his past three games. He should be a priority target for Maye. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Patriots -3.5. New England is top five in point differential, points per drive on offense and defensive points allowed per drive. Since Week 10, the Chargers’ offense ranks bottom three in yards per play, success rate, explosive play rate and points per drive. That gap supports the margin. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Patriots CB Carlton Davis III was flagged six times for defensive pass interference, second most in the regular season. But the Chargers haven’t been great at drawing pass interference and have had only four called against their opponents, second lowest. — Seifert

Injuries: Chargers | Patriots

Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Solak’s pick: Patriots 20, Chargers 14
Walder’s pick: Patriots 26, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: NE, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Mack stayed in L.A.; inside his relationship with Tuipulotu … Barnwell weighs in on Maye’s MVP candidacy … Herbert taking snaps, says rest helped hand

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | HOU -3 (39.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Texans: Coach DeMeco Ryans has the utmost respect for Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, saying he has “done it for a long time” and pointing out how Tomlin sends encouragement his way. However, based on Monday’s news conference, Ryans will use the coverage being heavily slanted toward the Steelers as a rallying cry. He showed slight annoyance at the number of questions he received about Pittsburgh by sarcastically saying, “Y’all excited about the Steelers.” In the 2024 playoffs, he used the pro-Chargers coverage as motivation for the team before its 32-12 win in the wild-card round. — DJ Bien-Aime

What we’re hearing on the Steelers: The offensive line will face its greatest challenge of the season in the pass-rush tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter (29.5 sacks combined). “Both of them just present major threats,” LT Dylan Cook said. “It’s more so their changeups. We all know they’re kind of power guys, but they both have really good spin moves. They both have really good motors, good hand usage.” The line has played well since Cook joined the group a month ago, giving up only two sacks in each of the past three games. — Brooke Pryor

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Tomlin to Eisen: We’re excited to have DK Metcalf back

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin joins Rich Eisen and talks about what DK Metcalf’s absence meant for the team.

Stat to know: There is perhaps no game more relevant for the Steelers’ ultra-quick average time to throw of 2.62 seconds (fastest in the NFL) than this one. That’s because of the edge rushers they are facing: Anderson recorded 62 pass rush wins this season (second most), and Hunter delivers plenty of disruption as well. Pittsburgh might be uniquely suited to mitigate that threat because of Aaron Rodgers‘ quick release — though standout DBs Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre will surely know that, too. — Walder

Bold prediction: The Steelers will get shut out in the first half. There’s so much hype for the Texans’ pass rush, but it’s the secondary’s ability to create turnovers and minimize YAC that will lead to quick three-and-outs in this one. Houston can sustain long drives to control the clock, too. — Solak

Matchup X factor: Anderson. He can play a difference-making role, setting an edge to limit the Steelers’ outside zone run game, while also creating chaos as a pass rusher to disrupt Rodgers’ rhythm. — Bowen

One bet to consider: Texans -3. The Texans allow the second-lowest points per drive and force the most field goals per drive. Pittsburgh can score only with short fields, so the cleaner defense will cover in this game. — Maldonado

Officiating nugget: The outcome of this game could depend on whether the Steelers can keep the Texans’ pass rush off Rodgers. But he has helped the Steelers avoid harmful holding penalties by getting the ball out quick. They were flagged only 14 times for it, tied for the second fewest this season. — Seifert

Injuries: Texans | Steelers

Maldonado’s pick: Texans 23, Steelers 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 21, Steelers 17
Solak’s pick: Texans 24, Steelers 13
Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 54.7% (by an average of 1.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers’ Metcalf ‘excited as hell’ to return for playoffs

The Memphis Grizzlies are entertaining offers to potentially move two-time All-Star Ja Morant ahead of the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline, sources told ESPN.

Multiple teams are pursuing Morant in trade talks, and rival executives believe the Grizzlies would prioritize draft picks and young players in return, sources said. This is the first time the Grizzlies have engaged other teams in trades for Morant, who was the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft.

Morant, 26, is under contract with the Grizzlies through the 2027-28 season. He is eligible to sign up to a three-year, $178 million extension this summer. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 7.6 assists in 28.3 minutes per game this season, while shooting a career-low 40.1% from the field and 20.8% from 3-point range.

Morant has played in only 18 games this season because of injuries and a one-game suspension stemming from a postgame exchange with coach Tuomas Iisalo in November. Memphis is 10-9 without him in the lineup, and 6-12 when he plays. He played just 59 games over the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons because of two suspensions for incidents with guns, along with various injuries.

Morant is one of eight players in NBA history to average 22 points and seven assists per game. LeBron James, Oscar Robertson, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham being the others.

Memphis is considering multiple paths forward amid the emergence of several promising young players such as Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer, including building around them and 2023 Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also remain open to continue on with Morant as a focal part of their retooling.

The Grizzlies, who traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic last offseason for four unprotected first-round picks and one first-round swap, have a treasure chest of assets, with a total of nine first-round picks and six second-rounders moving forward. They have their first-rounder in each of the next seven drafts.

Memphis currently has the 10th-best lottery odds ahead of a highly anticipated NBA draft in June.

We can only hope that the second semifinal is as good as the first.

On Thursday night in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami watched multiple leads disappear, dropped potential interceptions, committed penalties and still gutted its way into the College Football Playoff National Championship game with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss.

Carson Beck‘s 3-yard touchdown run made the difference, but it was a wonderful back-and-forth affair until the end.

As we prepare for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Indiana and Oregon on Friday evening, here are the key plays and takeaways from an incredible first semifinal.

What just happened?

Miami paid millions of dollars to bring Beck to town, and in the drive that would define his season with the Hurricanes, he led them 75 yards for the winning touchdown to send them to the national title game. Money well spent, huh?

Beck’s 3-yard touchdown scramble with 18 seconds left capped a madcap fourth quarter that featured four lead changes and even saw Ole Miss drive close enough for a shot at the end zone on the final play.

The Hurricanes hogged the ball for much of the game — time of possession after three quarters: Miami 33:50, Ole Miss 11:10 — but dropped four potential interceptions, missed a field goal and threw a pick deep in Rebels territory. Given extra life, Ole Miss took two fourth-quarter leads, first on Lucas Carneiro‘s fourth field goal of the evening, then on a 24-yard touchdown pass from Trinidad Chambliss to Dae’Quan Wright. But with four third-down conversions, Beck guided the Canes down the field and won the game.

Impact plays

Miami games don’t tend to feature many big plays, for or against, but chunk plays caused some pretty big swings in this one.

Kewan Lacy‘s 73-yard burst early in the second quarter — Ole Miss’ first good offensive play of the game — gave the Rebels a sudden 7-3 lead. Lacy tweaked a hamstring and missed most of the next two quarters before returning, but the touchdown bought Ole Miss some time.

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Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy bursts free for a 73-yard TD

Kewan Lacy goes untouched for a 73-yard touchdown to give Ole Miss a 7-3 lead.

Miami leveraged the game back in its favor. Keelan Marion scored on a bomb against busted coverage late in the first half to make it 17-10. After generating just 69 receiving yards in his first two playoff games, he was the semifinal star of the Miami receiving corps, catching seven passes for 114 yards.

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Miami’s Carson Beck connects with Keelan Marion for a 52-yard go-ahead TD

Carson Beck hits a wide-open Keelan Marion, who walks into the end zone to put the Hurricanes back on top.

Three Carneiro field goals — including a 58-yarder at the end of the first half and a doinked-in 52-yarder in the third quarter — would push the Rebels back in front, but they wasted a golden opportunity after a pair of Miami personal fouls (the Canes had 10 penalties on the evening) set up a first-and-goal. Ole Miss gained only 4 yards in three plays and settled for a 19-17 lead, which disappeared within two minutes on Malachi Toney‘s 36-yard burst off a screen pass.

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Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TD

Malachi Toney evades tackles on his way to a 36-yard touchdown to give Miami the lead back.

Ole Miss created the third lead change of the fourth quarter with Wright’s touchdown but left plenty time on the clock for Beck and the Canes. They used most of it, took the lead and broke up a Hail Mary.

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Miami wins after Ole Miss’ Hail Mary attempt falls incomplete

Trinidad Chambliss airs one out to the end zone, but it’s too far and falls incomplete.

See you next fall, Rebels

The most thrilling and headline-grabbing Ole Miss season in recent history ended with two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers. The Rebels played brilliant ball down the stretch, winning their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-14 to clinch a playoff bid despite the waves of headlines regarding Lane Kiffin’s potential move to LSU. And despite Kiffin leaving town and trying to take assistants with him before Ole Miss’ season had ended, the Rebels thumped Tulane in the playoff, came back from nine points down at halftime to beat Georgia in the quarterfinals, then came back again to nearly beat Miami.

So many of the Rebels’ stars made big plays Thursday night. Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a touchdown and used a great 19-yard scramble to set up Ole Miss’ last go-ahead touchdown. Lacy rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries, reentering the game after his hamstring injury and grinding out tough yards. Leading receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III combined for nine catches and 117 yards, while junior Cayden Lee came up big (five for 67) and Wright had three huge catches, all in the second half. Carneiro’s huge leg shined again. On defense, Suntarine Perkins had 1.5 sacks, and linebacker TJ Dottery and safety Wydett Williams Jr. made big plays early during Miami’s last drive, which could have been remembered differently with a different ending.

Pete Golding inherited a seemingly impossible situation with Kiffin leaving, but Ole Miss closed ranks and came achingly close to earning a spot in the national title game. Better yet, stars such as Chambliss (if he is granted an extra year of eligibility) and Lacy have already committed to staying in Oxford despite Kiffin’s efforts to bring them to Baton Rouge. Some stars have exhausted their eligibility, but Ole Miss enters 2026 battle-hardened and full of upside.

What’s next

Miami will officially play in its first national title game in 23 seasons. The Hurricanes will likely be underdogs against Indiana or Oregon, but they will be playing in their home stadium, and they have to feel like the patented team of destiny right about now. Close games have been a massive issue for the Canes at times under Mario Cristobal, but in their past three games, they’ve won at Texas A&M with a late end zone stop, beaten Ohio State by 10 with clutch execution and somehow found a way past Ole Miss despite so many bounces seemingly going against them.

Beck had a putrid start to the second half but produced late heroics. Mark Fletcher Jr. was again brilliant, rushing for 133 yards. CharMar Brown was again a tough-yardage master, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown. Marion was a secret weapon, and Toney, the talented freshman, set up a touchdown with a tough third-down conversion in the first half and scored one himself in the fourth quarter.

The defense couldn’t corral Chambliss, recording only one sack, but the Canes allowed only one big run to Lacy and the backs. And they absolutely dominated third downs: Ole Miss went just 2-for-10 while the Canes went 11-for-19. Credit to the Rebels for nearly winning anyway, but the Canes controlled most of what they wanted to control. They hogged the ball beautifully, and when that couldn’t win them the game, they sped up the tempo and won a back-and-forth final quarter.

Wednesday night provided the answer to one of the NBA’s biggest questions:

Who will make the first trade of 2025-26?

Yes, the Atlanta Hawks dealing four-time All-Star guard Trae Young to the Washington Wizards has officially kick-started trade season. But will it spark more moves as the league inches closer to the Feb. 5 deadline? There have been plenty of other rumblings — chief among them, more drama surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s future and potential landing spots for Anthony Davis.

As we await the second trade of the season, what else could get done? ESPN’s Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton map out six moves that could bolster contenders and alter the race to the postseason, while NBA Front Office Insider Bobby Marks examines how the deals would impact each franchise’s future.

Let’s get to the trades, starting with the Milwaukee Bucks‘ latest attempt to build another championship roster around their two-time MVP.

Jump to a trade proposal:
Bucks land another Giannis co-star
Lakers add much-needed shooting
Warriors find a deal for Kuminga
Timberwolves get their point guard
Spurs add more help behind Wemby
Raptors look west for big-man help

Milwaukee Bucks get:

Michael Porter Jr.

Brooklyn Nets get:

Kyle Kuzma
Taurean Prince
2031 first-round pick (via Bucks)

Detroit Pistons get:

Cole Anthony
Cash considerations

For Milwaukee, no player is a better deadline addition than Porter, who would fill a role similar to what Khris Middleton once played for the Bucks and make them far more capable of succeeding when Antetokounmpo sits.

Because Milwaukee is so far below the luxury tax line, it could comfortably add about $8 million in salary, converting three players who have been ineffective or unavailable (Prince underwent neck surgery in November that will likely end his season) into a player who deserves All-Star consideration.

Would that result in a deep enough playoff run to justify Milwaukee giving up its lone remaining tradable first-round pick? Probably not, but if the Bucks are committed to fortifying the roster around Antetokounmpo, this deal is tough to top.

From the Nets’ standpoint, this would be an all-time piece of business. In the offseason deal to acquire Porter, Brooklyn also got an unprotected first-round pick from the Denver Nuggets and would add a second future pick from another team that is highly leveraged to win now.

Left unsaid on the trade calls: If the Nets are interested in getting in on an Antetokounmpo deal at some point between now and the 2027 deadline, having Milwaukee’s pick to offer would be an ideal starting point.

The Pistons are involved as a third team solely because they can clear a roster spot and are nowhere near the luxury tax. They’d get cash to cover Anthony’s salary and could waive him immediately, if they want. — Pelton

Marks’ analysis: The Nets are in an interesting position, as a case can be made that the franchise should move off its best player to help secure a higher pick in June’s draft and further its rebuild. After reacquiring their own 2025 and 2026 first-round picks from the Houston Rockets, the Nets risk drafting outside the top five once again if Porter is on the roster and sustains his career-best play. In trading Porter, Brooklyn could enter the offseason with cap space and a plethora of first-round picks.

Unless Antetokounmpo asks for a trade before the deadline, the Bucks will keep doubling down on their roster. While trading their only available first-round pick seems desperate, keep in mind that starting the night of the draft, Milwaukee will be allowed to trade their 2026 and 2033 first-rounders. If Antetokounmpo does ask out, Milwaukee will likely recoup multiple first-round picks in a deal.

Los Angeles Lakers get:

Keon Ellis

Sacramento Kings get:

Dalton Knecht
2032 second-round pick

Ellis is a natural fit for the Lakers, who rank 23rd in defensive rating and an even worse 29th since the start of December. His 3-point shot has regressed this season (35.5%, versus 42.9% in his career prior), but that lack of offensive oomph is precisely why the hard-nosed defender might be attainable in a small-scale deal like this.

The Kings also don’t seem to value Ellis very highly, given his minutes keep fluctuating: Within his past 10 games, Ellis has played at least 30 minutes twice and 10 minutes or less four times. With the young guard set to reach free agency this summer (he also can sign an extension before then), Sacramento might think it makes sense to cash in now for a second-round pick and Knecht, a 2024 first-rounder who’d bring shooting and decent size to the roster’s wing rotation.

If Sacramento sets a higher price point for Ellis’ contract, the Lakers could struggle to bridge the gap: The 2032 pick is their only tradable second-rounder, and they likely would prefer to save their only tradable first-rounder (in 2031 or 2032) for a bigger target. And many other teams in need of perimeter defensive help should be interested in Ellis at the deadline. — Kram

Marks’ analysis: Outside of Keegan Murray and Nique Clifford, Ellis is the one player on the Kings’ roster whom team executives covet. Ellis fills a need for the Lakers, who would acquire his Bird rights for next season. More importantly, Ellis’ $2.4 million free agent hold allows the Lakers to use cap space in free agency to fill out their roster and still exceed the cap to sign the guard. Knecht would be traded for a second straight season, but unlike his short tenure with the Charlotte Hornets, this trade would actually go through. He would have a blank slate in Sacramento and ample playing time on a roster that is rebuilding. Knecht is under contract through the 2027-28 season and extension eligible in the 2027 offseason. Considering Ellis was likely going to leave Sacramento in free agency, identifying a player on a controllable contract such as Knecht is important for the Kings.

Golden State Warriors get:

Jordan Hawkins
Trey Murphy III

New Orleans Pelicans get:

Jonathan Kuminga
Moses Moody
2026 first-round pick (via Warriors)
2028 first-round pick (via Warriors, top-10 protected)
2030 first-round pick (via Warriors, if No. 5 to 20)

Utah Jazz get:

Kevon Looney
2031 second-round pick (via Raptors)
2032 second-round pick (via Pelicans)
Cash considerations

The Warriors have been linked to bigger names on the market, but for their financial situation, Murphy makes more sense. He is in the first season of a four-year, $112 million extension with a cap hit less than half of Anthony Davis’ this season. Golden State could make this trade and actually save $25 million in luxury tax.

On the court, Murphy would give the Warriors another feared shooter to play off Stephen Curry. Murphy has made 38% of his career 3s, hitting three per game in recent seasons. Moody, at 2.1 made treys per outing, is the second-leading Golden State player this season. For that archetype, Murphy would hold his own defensively on the wing for the Warriors and slide to power forward when Draymond Green is at center.

Since the Pelicans have no urgency to move Murphy, those benefits will cost Golden State. This deal moves up to three of the four first-round picks they can trade but protects them from giving up a top-four pick after this year. New Orleans is taking a risk that this trade might convey only one first-rounder, but it could yield three lottery picks if things hit right.

The Pelicans also get a pair of useful young players. Kuminga’s game figures to intrigue New Orleans’ front office. And Moody would give the Pelicans a shooter to help replace Murphy. New Orleans also benefits from getting off the $7 million 2026-27 salary for Hawkins, who is averaging just 4.5 points per game this season.

The Jazz jump in to facilitate by taking on Looney using a trade exception. He’d likely be a rotation player for Utah at center the rest of the season. — Pelton

Marks’ analysis: There is risk in this trade when considering the uncertain future of Golden State’s roster. Besides the newly acquired Murphy, there would be no current Warriors under contract when the 2028 and 2030 first-round picks sent to New Orleans get made. But similar to Milwaukee’s approach with Antetokounmpo, there is an obligation to maximize the championship window with Curry and Jimmy Butler III on the roster. And three first-rounders is too much of an offer for New Orleans to refuse, even if they have to include Murphy in the trade.

After trading their own 2026 first-rounder to the Atlanta Hawks to select Derik Queen, the Pelicans would reenter June’s draft with the Warriors’ pick. Kuminga has a $24.3 million team option for next season, and New Orleans can use the next four months to evaluate whether the team lets him hit free agency. With Murphy traded in this move, the focus would turn to whether Zion Williamson is the next domino to fall? Utah benefits as a facilitator with two first-round picks to take back Looney’s $8 million salary with a team option for 2026-27.

Timberwolves fill their biggest need

Minnesota Timberwolves get:

Tre Jones

Chicago Bulls get:

Rob Dillingham
Terrence Shannon Jr.

The Timberwolves don’t need a big swing at point guard, as Anthony Edwards continues to develop as a playmaker. But a competent midtier creator would do wonders for a team with a hole at the position. Jones, a Minnesota native and brother of former Wolves guard Tyus Jones, fits the bill.

Tre Jones is 6-foot-1 and has an iffy 3-point shot, but he is the steady hand Minnesota needs. Since moving to Chicago at last season’s trade deadline as part of the three-team deal that brought De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs, Jones has averaged 11.9 points and 5.1 assists per game to just 1.1 turnovers. Given that Minnesota has the worst clutch turnover rate in the league, Jones’ ball security would offer a significant upgrade.

While Jones could help a contender, Dillingham and Chicago-native Shannon have much more value to a team that can give them time to develop. The two 2024 first-rounders have tumbled down Wolves coach Chris Finch’s rotation, averaging a combined 8.2 PPG. Dillingham has reached 20 minutes in just one game all season, despite being the No. 8 pick in the 2024 draft.

Think of this trade as the light version of the Bulls’ Alex Caruso–Josh Giddey swap, sending a veteran glue guy to a contender while returning higher-upside youngsters but no draft picks. The only hang-up to getting this deal done now might be Chicago’s desire to hold onto Jones until Giddey returns from a hamstring strain. — Kram

Marks’ analysis: In this deal, the Timberwolves are looking ahead. Yes, the Dillingham trade with the Spurs turned into a disaster when you consider Minnesota traded the right to swap firsts in 2030 and send a 2031 unprotected first-round pick with the Spurs. But the Wolves are in dire need of a point guard to alleviate the workload on Edwards. The three-year, $24 million contract Jones inked with Chicago in the offseason is considered one of the better value deals. However, I don’t like this trade for Chicago. Dillingham is only 21, but his two years in summer league, preseason and the regular season have shown he is not a rotational player right now. Shannon was expected to fill the void left when Nickeil Alexander-Walker signed with Atlanta, but the forward has struggled with his shot after a strong summer league and is dealing with a left foot injury.

Spurs add another French big man

San Antonio Spurs get:

Guerschon Yabusele
2026 second-round pick (via Suns)

New York Knicks get:

Cam Whitmore

Washington Wizards get:

Jeremy Sochan

The Spurs have an intriguing opportunity to upgrade at the deadline with $20 million in expiring salary between Sochan and Kelly Olynyk, who are at the fringes of the team’s rotation. San Antonio also might benefit from adding a player under contract through 2026-27 in case the team needs to aggregate salary for a blockbuster trade this summer.

Finding the right player is tricky because the Spurs’ rotation has been so strong at full strength. Another wing shooter, such as Kevin Huerter, might make sense, but San Antonio’s single biggest weakness has been when neither Victor Wembanyama nor Luke Kornet is on the court. Such lineups have been outscored by 7.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Enter Yabusele, who has struggled to find the court with the Knicks but has history in both playing alongside Wembanyama with the French national team and as a stretch-5. The Spurs also get a pick likely to fall in the middle of the second round to utilize in other deadline moves.

For the Wizards, this is a talent play, just as acquiring Whitmore was last summer. Sochan was a lottery pick in 2022, and it’s possible a change of scenery, plus playing with an elite facilitator in Trae Young and a floor-stretching 7-footer in Alex Sarr, could help unlock his game. Whitmore struggled with his efficiency in Washington before being diagnosed with deep-vein thrombosis, which has him sidelined.

The motivation for New York is financial. Signing Yabusele hard-capped the Knicks at the second luxury tax apron, giving them no ability to fill out their roster. Moving him for a smaller salary would enable New York to sign a 15th player immediately. Any production the Knicks get from Whitmore is a bonus. — Pelton

Marks’ analysis: This is a low-cost option for the Spurs and the Wizards. After averaging 30 minutes per game last season, Sochan has been buried on coach Mitch Johnson’s bench and gets an opportunity to audition in Washington for the second half of the season. If Sochan plays well enough, the Wizards can make him a restricted free agent by tendering a one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer in the offseason. Similar to Sochan, Yabusele averaged 27 minutes and 11.0 points last season with the Philadelphia 76ers, but he has seen his minutes plummet with New York. Yabusele has a $5.8 million player option for next season.

‘Splash Mountain’ heads north

Toronto Raptors get:

Brook Lopez

LA Clippers get:

Ochai Agbaji
Jamison Battle
2026 second-round pick (via Lakers)

The Raptors have a giant hole at center, as Jakob Poeltl hasn’t played since Dec. 21 due to a back injury. Even when available, the 30-year-old showed signs of significant decline this season, calling into question the team’s decision to offer him a pricey early extension in the offseason.

In Poeltl’s absence, Toronto has been leaning on undersized centers Sandro Mamukelashvili and rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, and the surprise contender could use a bigger, steadier hand at the position. Complicating matters is that the Raptors’ five starters are their only players with a cap hit above $6.4 million this season, meaning they need to either lose a core player or look for bargain contracts.

The latter option could point to Nick Richards of the Phoenix Suns or Brooklyn’s Day’Ron Sharpe. The 37-year-old Lopez also offers an intriguing fit as a proven playoff performer who has perked up following a dismal start to the 2025-26 campaign. He’s making 36% of his 3s and remains an effective interior defender. Lopez has allowed just 55% shooting at the rim this season, as compared with 64% for all of Toronto’s bigs.

For the Clippers, this trade would give them potential upside in Agbaji, a former lottery pick who will enter restricted free agency next summer, and a mid-second-round pick. At the moment, it’s possible the Clips don’t end up with any picks in the 2026 draft, depending on how complex pick protections and the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration investigation unfold. — Kram

Marks’ analysis: Adding Lopez would give Toronto an insurance policy for their frontcourt. But is the Raptors’ ownership content on forfeiting a $14.1 million tax distribution? Toronto sits $967,000 over the tax, and this deal would add $500,000 in salary. To sign a 14th player and remain below the first-apron hard cap — this trade would put the Raptors $500,000 below — Toronto would need a third team to send out additional salary. For the Clippers, the NBA’s oldest team would get younger with the additions of Agbaji (age 25) and Battle (24). And trading Lopez would open up minutes for 22-year-old rookie center Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

The deal with the biggest leaguewide impact is …

The six trades all make compelling arguments, from Golden State and Milwaukee and their franchise players trying to keep their championship windows open to Minnesota finding a permanent solution at point guard.

And while the Trey Murphy III trade to Golden State will steal the headlines and improve the roster, it is hard to ignore Tre Jones to Minnesota and Keon Ellis landing with the Lakers, both of which fill massive holes and could easily impact the road to the playoffs and beyond.

As Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks days proved, reliable 3-point shooters are a must for any Doncic-led offense to be considered championship-caliber. And if Minnesota reaches its third consecutive Western Conference finals, any potential deadline deal for a point guard could be the difference in the franchise finally breaking through to its first NBA Finals. — Marks