Arch Manning kept the ball on a run-pass option, knowing a big hit was coming his way. The Texas quarterback waited until the last possible second before firing the ball to a leaping Emmett Mosley V in the end zone.

Manning’s third touchdown pass gave Texas a 24-point lead over Vanderbilt, and the Longhorns held on for a 34-31 win. The much-scrutinized Manning, who entered his first season as a starter with outsize expectations and struggled to meet them for seven games, had settled into a nice rhythm. Manning has 674 passing yards and six touchdowns in his past two starts, and he enters the stretch run brimming with confidence.

Quarterbacks improve and so do offenses overall, as Texas has shown in recent weeks. Offenses and quarterbacks also regress, as Carson Beck and Miami have with losses in two of the past three games.

But November provides the stage for offenses to make strides and ideally peak in the most important games. Weather and injuries will factor in for some teams, as will schedule strength. Our latest power rankings examine the top 25 and what each team can do to improve on offense during a pivotal month. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1

The Buckeyes had a strong performance on the ground in the 38-14 win over Penn State. But the running game has been middling for much of the season, even with quarterback Julian Sayin and wideouts Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith buoying arguably the most lethal passing attack in the country. The Buckeyes rank 10th in the Big Ten with 153 rushing yards per game and ninth with 4.64 yards per carry. Ohio State is eighth in the league in yards before contact per rush (1.73) and 11th in yards after contact per rush (2.84), suggesting the issues lie both with the offensive line and the running backs. Still, the more carries freshman Bo Jackson has gotten, the better the running game has been. And last season, Ohio State’s revamped offensive line found its groove in the College Football Playoff after struggling during the regular season. Against Penn State, Jackson rushed for 105 yards on 13 carries for his first 100-yard game since Sept. 13. That could prove to be a springboard for Ohio State’s running game down the stretch. — Jake Trotter

Previous ranking: 2

Like many aspects of coach Curt Cignetti’s team, the offense is difficult to nitpick. The Hoosiers entered Saturday’s game at Maryland ranked third nationally in scoring and fifth in yards per contest. Indiana continued its machinelike efficiency against the Terrapins, leaning on its running game with Kaelon Black and Maryland transfer Roman Hemby. Despite not having starting offensive lineman Drew Evans and losing standout wide receiver Elijah Sarratt to a hamstring injury in the first half, Indiana still finished with 55 points and 588 yards in its latest win. IU has displayed tremendous offensive balance throughout the season, and the run game has really come on strong across the past two weeks after a brief dip. The Hoosiers need to maintain that approach the rest of the way. — Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 3

The duo of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion changed everything for the Aggies’ offense this season by creating space with big-play threats, which was seriously lacking last season. The transfers have combined for 76 catches, 1,261 yards and 11 touchdowns as compared with last season’s leading receivers Noah Thomas and Jabre Barber, who racked up 77 catches for 955 yards and 10 TDs over the entire campaign. Despite losing last season’s leading rusher, Le’Veon Moss, to an ankle injury, the Aggies have used the legs of quarterback Marcel Reed (349 yards, six TDs) to supplement running back Rueben Owens II. And as of late, ball carrier Jamarion Morrow, who scored twice against LSU, has given Texas A&M another wrinkle. The Aggies are humming along. But one area for improvement? They rank 123rd in penalties per game (7.9), and coach Mike Elko has challenged his team to be more disciplined. After a bye week, the Aggies will be headed to Missouri with ESPN Research’s best strength of record, which suggests the average playoff contender would have only a 5% chance to go 8-0 against A&M’s schedule to date. — Dave Wilson

Previous ranking: 4

The Crimson Tide have surged since losing to Florida State in the season opener thanks in large part to the development and poise of quarterback Ty Simpson. The biggest area that needs improvement is the run game, which has not been nearly as consistent or explosive as that of past Tide teams. Alabama is averaging just 118.9 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, ranking among the bottom third in the country. Alabama has one 100-yard rusher in Power 4 games, and multiple times its leading rusher was not a running back. Some of that is because ball carrier Jam Miller has been banged up, but the offensive line has not been nearly as good at run blocking as projected. If Alabama is going to make it through the rest of its schedule and a possible CFP run, there is no question it will have to figure out a way to run the ball better and more consistently. — Andrea Adelson

Previous ranking: 8

A bye for the Ducks this past week allows them to get some extra time to prepare for what might be one of their trickiest matchups left, against Iowa on the road this Saturday. Oregon’s offense ranks 10th in SP+, but its passing game has lagged behind its running attack, which is one of the 10 best in the country. The final stretch will put more pressure on quarterback Dante Moore, who is coming off what appeared to be a nose injury that sidelined him during the Oct. 25 home victory against Wisconsin. (It does not appear he will miss significant time.) After a really strong start to the season, Moore struggled in Oregon’s loss against Indiana but bounced back with his best statistical game at Rutgers. Something to watch: If the Ducks are able to get wide receiver Evan Stewart back after being out for most of the season with a serious knee injury he suffered in June, it could be a huge development for their unit heading into a potential playoff run. — Paolo Uggetti

Previous ranking: 6

It’s difficult to nitpick an Ole Miss offense that ranks third in the SEC in passing (289.2 yards) and total offense (476.8 yards) and is fourth in scoring (36.2 points) and rushing (187.6 yards). The Rebels weren’t at their best in Saturday’s 30-14 home win against South Carolina. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, the Division II transfer from Ferris State, has been one of the best stories in college football this season. He completed 12 of 21 passes for 159 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It wasn’t his best effort.

“I felt like our fans and defense showed up today,” Rebels coach Lane Kiffin said. “Our offense in the passing game didn’t. Inconsistency in the passing game started in the third quarter. They started to play a lot of man and stopping the run. Gotta beat them in the passing game when they do that, didn’t for a little bit there.” — Mark Schlabach

Previous ranking: 10

BYU has found itself in a familiar position: 8-0 and the front-runner to win the Big 12. The Cougars were here a year ago (9-0, actually), only to drop a pair of late games and lose out on the tiebreaker to play for the conference title. BYU had a well-timed bye over the weekend ahead of this week’s trip to Texas Tech in what is the biggest game of the week in college football. The Cougars have appeared vulnerable at times, but this is a team that has won 19 of its past 21 contests. — Kyle Bonagura

Previous ranking: 5

The Bulldogs didn’t have their finest effort on offense in a 24-20 victory against rival Florida in Jacksonville on Saturday. But once again, Georgia’s offense made big plays when it needed it most in the fourth quarter. After running for 221 yards in a 43-35 win over Ole Miss on Oct. 18, the Bulldogs didn’t have as much success on the ground against the Gators. Georgia ran 39 times for 138 yards, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Florida’s defense did a good job of containing quarterback Gunner Stockton, who has hurt many opponents with designed keepers this season. Running the ball was a point of emphasis for coach Kirby Smart this past offseason, after his Bulldogs ranked next to last in the SEC with 124.4 yards per game, the lowest average in his tenure. Georgia has been better this season; it ranks sixth in the league with 184 yards per game. But Smart wants even more out of his ground game in the final month of the season. — Schlabach

Previous ranking: 12

If Texas Tech wants to reach the playoff, this week’s game against BYU feels like a must-win. The Red Raiders could lose and still reach the Big 12 title game for a chance to play its way back into the 12-team field, but with as many teams still in the mix in the conference, the tiebreaker game could get tricky. The Red Raiders are undefeated when quarterback Behren Morton is available, which is something the committee would take into account come selection time. When he’s healthy, Texas Tech usually looks like the best team in the Big 12. — Bonagura

Previous ranking: 13

A ho-hum 25-10 win over Boston College is nothing to get excited about, but for Notre Dame, it was probably a good example of what a middling effort looks like. That the Fighting Irish perhaps overlooked BC is not a shock; the Eagles have been awful. But even amid a less-than-stellar outing, Notre Dame’s offense still flexed its two most impressive muscles. Jeremiyah Love ran for 136 yards and a pair of scores, while CJ Carr threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Dig a little deeper, however, and there was at least one reminder of Notre Dame’s early-season issues. Of Love’s 136 yards, 94 came on one play. Jadarian Price had just 12 yards on nine carries. The ground game, aside from Love’s long run, averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. Balance will be essential against better foes, and with Love and Price, Notre Dame should never have to worry about an ability to move the ball on the ground. — David Hale

Previous ranking: 19

The most productive scorer in the Sooners’ first road win over a ranked opponent since 2019? Kicker Tate Sandell. The big-legged redshirt junior knocked in four field goals, including three over 50 yards, in Oklahoma’s 33-27 win at Tennessee. As important, Oklahoma got its running game going at Neyland Stadium. Xavier Robinson‘s 115 yards marked the most by a Sooners running back in 2025. And with another 80 yards on the ground from quarterback John Mateer, Oklahoma turned in its best rushing performance against a power conference defense this fall. The Sooners were still outgained 456-351 in Week 10. But even base-level production on the ground at Tennessee made a game-changing impact for an offense that struggled mightily across much of October. It was enough to help keep Oklahoma’s playoff hopes alive. The Sooners will need to keep that same rushing attack cranking when they visit Alabama on Nov. 15. — Eli Lederman

Previous ranking: 14

For the Cavaliers to make it to the ACC championship game, they will have to make sure their run game is the best it can be down the stretch. They were able to run the ball more effectively in a 31-21 win over Cal, gaining 194 yards on 44 attempts. That was a huge priority after struggling to run it last week in an overtime win over North Carolina. Virginia is at its best when it runs to set up the pass, and that is what the Cavs did so effectively at the start of the season while rushing for more than 200 yards in their first three Power 4 games. Running back J’Mari Taylor is having an All-ACC caliber season, and Harrison Waylee has proved to be a nice change of pace back. Quarterback Chandler Morris can help in the run game, as well. — Adelson

Previous ranking: 22

After Arch Manning‘s second straight 300-yard passing game, coach Steve Sarkisian said the improvement of Texas’ offensive line, along with the experience and maturity of Manning at quarterback, means he can get his offense more in attack mode. The one-two punch of Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter returning allows the Longhorns to open up the play-action game, like they did against Vanderbilt as Manning went 12-of-15 for 166 yards and three TDs on play fakes. Texas gets a bye week to heal up before a Nov. 15 showdown in Athens against No. 5 Georgia followed by home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Key stats for Texas’ playoff hopes: Sarkisian has 12 wins over ranked teams over the past three campaigns, second only to Kalen DeBoer (13); and Texas is 17-1 at home during that same span, tied for fewest home losses in the FBS. — Wilson

Previous ranking: 16

Late in the 28-16 win over Virginia Tech, Cardinals running back Isaac Brown came up limping near the sideline. Brown has been on fire as of late, and he had another 130 yards on the ground Saturday. But he also has been Louisville’s only consistent big-play threat, and if he is to miss any time, it’s easy to wonder what this Cardinals offense would look like without him. Quarterback Miller Moss has been mediocre for much of the season, and Saturday’s outing was a microcosm of larger concerns. Moss threw a pick and averaged just 4.9 yards per pass. Moss’ 66.1 Total QBR ranks 54th nationally, and he has had at least one turnover in six of eight games this season. Moss was never likely to be as prolific as Tyler Shough had been a year ago for the Cardinals, but Moss probably needs to be a tick or two better than he has been if Louisville wants to make a serious push for the playoff. — Hale

Previous ranking: 7

The Yellow Jackets’ struggles against the run finally caught up with them in Week 10 against NC State, which ran for 243 yards in a 48-36 win. Quarterback Haynes King was still exceptional, accounting for 511 of Georgia Tech’s 559 yards, but some of the cracks in the offensive facade showed through, as well. The rushing attack came up short multiple times in the red zone, forcing Georgia Tech to settle for too many field goals, and the receivers had several key drops. In all, Tech’s offense remains one of the better groups in the country. But the dependence on King to be the superhero was on display in the loss to NC State, and the struggles in stopping the Wolfpack on defense was a reminder that no matter how dynamic King is, someone still needs to stop the other team too. — Hale

Previous ranking: 11

The Commodores clawed back against Texas but were in too big of a hole, starting the fourth quarter down 34-10 before scoring 21 unanswered. The biggest reason was the lack of protection for Diego Pavia, who had been sacked just seven times all season before Texas got to him six times. Vanderbilt also entered the game averaging 203 yards rushing, but it was held to just 58, the lowest output in two campaigns since offensive coordinator Tim Beck arrived (along with Pavia). Pavia was 7-for-12 for 86 yards when he was pressured against Texas but 20-of-26 for 279 when he wasn’t, so solidifying things up front is key for the stretch run. Vandy has home games against Auburn and Kentucky then an end-of-year trip to Knoxville to take on Tennessee. ESPN Research currently gives the Commodores a 25% chance to make the playoff — but a 94% chance if they win out. — Wilson

Previous ranking: 24

The Utes’ offensive turnaround this season has been remarkable. When they’re clicking, they have one of the most fun offenses to watch in college football. The playcalling is creative, and there are huge gaps to run through. It’s pleasing to the eye. In the two games the Utes were stifled — by Texas Tech and BYU — the offensive line just wasn’t able to get the same push, and it threw off the timing of everything. At its finest, Utah might be the best team in the Big 12. But with two conference losses — to teams it trails in the standings — Utah will need a lot of help to reach the title game. — Bonagura

Previous ranking: 18

With Beau Pribula out with a dislocated left ankle, Missouri got a bye week to prepare freshman Matt Zollers for his first career start against No. 3 Texas A&M this Saturday. Zollers was a smooth-passing top-100 recruit, and he went a decent 14-for-23 for 138 yards and a touchdown while nearly leading a comeback against Vanderbilt. But Mizzou needs to do him some favors by reestablishing a solid run game. It’s a lot easier to run than throw against A&M anyway, but after earning early-season All-American hype, Tigers back Ahmad Hardy has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry over his past three games. If Hardy can’t get going again (and the offensive line can’t help a bit more than it has of late), beating a top-five team is going to be awfully difficult. — Bill Connelly

Previous ranking: 9

The Hurricanes have found themselves in quite a pickle headed into the stretch run: All but eliminated from ACC title game contention, they still have an outside shot at an at-large CFP berth. With that in mind, how will Miami fix its offensive issues over the final four weeks of the season? Penalties — in particular pre-snap flags — have killed drives and sapped momentum in losses to Louisville and SMU. But more than that, when the run game stalls, Miami has not done a good enough job stretching the field with explosive plays in the passing game. Some of that is because the Hurricanes do not have a reliable receiver outside of Malachi Toney. CJ Daniels showed he could be that earlier in the year, but he missed the SMU game with an injury. Against a Mustangs defense that had given up its fair share of big passing plays, Miami could not get the ball down the field consistently enough and lost. — Adelson

Previous ranking: 25

The Trojans had a bit of a role reversal in their 21-17 win against Nebraska as the defense was able to will them to a hard-fought road victory while the offense appeared to regress. Until this week, USC’s offense under quarterback Jayden Maiava had been one of the most potent units in the nation (and it still ranks third in SP+). But Maiava struggled, completing only nine passes for 135 yards and throwing one interception. USC has playoff hopes that are very much within its grasp, but it likely needs to trust its own run game even more than it is currently (202 rushing yards against Nebraska) down the stretch. Despite injuries to its top two backs in Eli Sanders and Waymond Jordan, walk-on King Miller has been a revelation, rushing for 357 yards over the past three contests. If the Trojans are set to make a true run at the CFP, both Maiava and Miller will need to be at their best. — Uggetti

Previous ranking: 21

The pregame image of Justice Haynes, the Big Ten’s leading rusher, with a boot on his foot and needing a scooter to get around would be daunting for some teams, but not Michigan. The Wolverines are set up to run the ball productively regardless of who is logging carries. Jordan Marshall stepped in for the injured Haynes and had a career performance against Purdue, finishing with 185 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 25 attempts. Michigan’s growth on offense remains with its passing game and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who contributed to the rushing attack but registered only 145 passing yards along with one interception. Michigan will look for more from Underwood and his pass catchers this month. — Rittenberg

Previous ranking: NR

The Tigers smoothly navigated a potential Friday night trap game at Rice, riding a 31-point first half to a straightforward 38-14 win in Week 10. The first half of Memphis’ season was all about the run game: The Tigers averaged 237.8 yards rushing per game across their 6-0 start. Over the past month, however, things have flipped. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and Memphis’ passing game came to life in October, most prominently in Lewis’ 307-yard performance in the program’s Week 9 win over South Florida. The Tigers have shown they can win in multiple ways on offense. The question now is whether Memphis can get things clicking on the ground and in the air at the same time. If so, coach Ryan Silverfield & Co. will hit the business end of the campaign with a complete offense capable of lifting an American Conference title and, in turn, potentially clinching a spot in the playoff field. — Lederman

Previous ranking: 15

Not including sacks, Tennessee averaged 5.6 yards per carry and 37.4 rushing attempts over its first seven outings. Over the past two: 31.5 carries and 3.4 yards. The run game has abandoned the Volunteers as of late, and in Saturday’s 33-27 loss to Oklahoma, their backs rushed 24 times for just 69 yards. After scoring 10 points on its first three possessions, Tennessee suffered a drought of seven points across seven drives thanks to a one-dimensional attack and a couple of poor decisions from quarterback Joey Aguilar. With a bye week to prepare for the last three games of the season — New Mexico State, at Florida, Vanderbilt — the Vols will need to rediscover the run and give Aguilar more support for any hope of winning out and maybe, with help, salvaging a playoff berth. — Connelly

Previous ranking: NR

That the Huskies have managed to lose only to Michigan and Ohio State is indicative of the quality of the team and the talent they do have, especially on offense and specifically with quarterback Demond Williams Jr. The sophomore has thrown for over 2,000 yards and completed 73% of his passes, and he boasts a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio as well as 429 rushing yards. (In fact, he has twice been the Huskies’ leading rusher.) Williams and his offense have had their way against equal and lesser defenses, but their worst two performances have come in those two losses facing elite defenses. (Williams threw three of his four interceptions to date against the Wolverines.) If Jedd Fisch’s team is hoping to keep surprising and rising up the rankings, the rest of its season presents a road map that is within reach, as Washington likely will be favored in three of its final four contests, with the exception being its Nov. 29 home game against Oregon. But it will require the best version of the Huskies’ offense and ask players such as running back Jonah Coleman to step up and help Williams too. That final regular-season matchup against the Ducks will feature one of the best defenses in the country trying to stop it. — Uggetti

Previous ranking: NR

The Hawkeyes are 68th in offensive EPA (expected points added), a considerable jump from last season, when they ranked 88th. If only Iowa could generate a few more big plays in the passing game. The Hawkeyes rank last among Power 4 offenses with just 5.64 yards per passing attempt. Iowa has completed only 14 passes for more than 20 yards and none for over 50 yards. The Hawkeyes did get two big completions (29 and 28 yards) in their resounding 41-3 victory over Minnesota last weekend. They’ll need to find a way to get a lot more of those over these next two weeks if they’re going to knock off Oregon and USC to hang on in the Big Ten title game picture. — Trotter

Expectations are high for the Purdue Boilermakers going into the season, ranked No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press poll for the first time, and bookmakers are giving them the added pressure of being preseason national championship favorites.

Purdue is the consensus favorite to win the national championship ahead of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season, showing +850 odds at ESPN BET. Last season’s runners-up, the Houston Cougars, are the consensus second-favorites at +1000 at ESPN BET, with Duke (+1100), UConn (+1200) and Kentucky (+1500) rounding out the top five.

Purdue didn’t open as the favorite around the time of the 2025 national championship game in April, but a productive offseason and hype around a talented team, led by Wooden Award preseason favorite Braden Smith (+400), has created a groundswell of support: The Boilermakers have garnered the highest share of national championship handle at both ESPN BET and BetMGM.

“There’s been a lot of offseason buzz around Purdue with them bringing three players back and addressing some weaknesses in the portal,” Caesars college basketball trader Patrick Berbert told ESPN. “So, they’ve been the popular team it seems so far.”

“In recent years, the transfer portal has become one of the biggest factors in preseason odds, as we evaluate how teams are balancing adding talent with roster continuity and chemistry,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said over email. “You can have a team that did well last season completely re-tooled with new faces, which may look like an upgrade on paper, but we need to see it in game action.”

Duke, by contrast, opened as the favorite for the 2026 national championship, but the Blue Devils saw their odds lengthen after they lost all five of their 2024-25 starters, including No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, to the NBA draft. A third-best 8.1% of the bets are backing Duke at BetMGM, but they’ve taken only 6.4% of the money there.

Meanwhile, Houston has simply maintained its standing as second best on the odds board and has received healthy support from the public, attracting the most bets (13.6%) at ESPN BET. BetMGM considers the Cougars to be its third-largest liability after it took the second-most wagers and handle there.

Last season’s national champions, the Florida Gators, come into the 2025-26 campaign with +1600 odds, sixth on ESPN BET’s odds board, which is a marked improvement over the +6000 they had going into last season. This season’s Gators have attracted only moderate action from bettors, but bookmakers will be on the lookout for a longer team on the board that could make a run to favorite status with early impressive play like Florida did last season.

“Most years, there is a sleeper team out there that wasn’t expected to do well and they’ll play really well early on,” said Berbert. “So it’s really important, just on a day-to-day trading basis, to be able to spot these teams when they’re exceeding expectations and to not be slow to react, especially in the futures market.”

Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make total sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.

Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.

Let’s look back on Week 10 with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.

Updated playoff tiers

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change all that much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.

Tier 1

Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)

With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and while the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge to me, both because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team like the Tide did.

Tier 2

Ole Miss (8-1, 83.6%) — def. South Carolina 30-14
Oregon (7-1, 75.6%)
Alabama (7-1, 74.0%)
BYU (8-0, 69.3%)
Texas Tech (8-1, 68.5%) — def. Kansas State 43-20
Georgia (7-1, 54.1%) — def. Florida 24-20

With Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State on Saturday, the Yellow Jackets dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3, but with a surprisingly comfortable road win over a smoking hot Kansas State, Texas Tech jumped from Tier 3 to 2. I’m curious how the CFP committee might view the Red Raiders, a team with eight wins by at least 23 points and a lone loss coming without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Their strength-of-schedule numbers aren’t very good, but they ace the eye test, and if “best” is supposed to matter over “most deserving,” well, they’re fourth in SP+.

Georgia, meanwhile, is uninterested in passing “eye tests.” The Bulldogs once again painted themselves into a corner, this time spotting rival Florida a 20-17 lead and letting them drive into field goal range midway through the fourth quarter. But they rallied once again, stuffing Jadan Baugh on fourth-and-1, immediately driving for a touchdown, then forcing a four-and-out and winning the game. They look impressive for about one quarter per game, but they’re 7-1 with a Tier 2 win over Ole Miss and a lone loss to Tier 2 Bama. The road still features games against Texas and Georgia Tech, however.

Tier 3

Notre Dame (6-2, 41.1%) — def. Boston College 25-10
Virginia (8-1, 37.6%) — def. California 31-21
Louisville (7-1, 37.1%) — def. Virginia Tech 28-16
Texas (7-2, 33.5%) — def. Vanderbilt 34-31
Georgia Tech (8-1, 30.2%) — lost to NC State 48-36

Tier 3 is evidently the transition tier. Of last week’s four Tier 3 teams, one moved up with a win (Texas Tech), and two moved down with losses (Miami, Vanderbilt). Meanwhile, it caught Georgia Tech on the way down and Texas on the way up. And with all the other chaos in the ACC, two one-loss teams that won as favorites Saturday (Virginia and Louisville) saw their conference title odds rise by solid amounts. They also moved up from Tier 4.

Tier 4

Oklahoma (7-2, 27.0%) — def. Tennessee 33-27
Vanderbilt (7-2, 26.8%) — lost to Texas 34-31
Utah (7-2, 24.2%) — def. Cincinnati 45-14
Miami (6-2, 17.9%) — lost to SMU 26-20
USC (6-2, 14.0%) — def. Nebraska 21-17
Washington (6-2, 13.6%)
Missouri (6-2, 10.7%)
Michigan (7-2, 10.5%) — def. Purdue 21-16
Pitt (7-2, 6.9%) — def. Stanford 35-20
Duke (5-3, 6.4%) — def. Clemson 46-45
Iowa (6-2, 6.0%)
SMU (6-3, 5.7%) — def. Miami 26-20

Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both have decent enough odds that I could have slipped them into Tier 3, but since they’ve both lost to Tier 3 Texas, and head-to-head matchups between two-loss SEC teams could matter a lot, we’ll go ahead and put them here. At this point, Tier 4 is a mix of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams (OU, Vandy, USC, Washington, Mizzou, Michigan, Iowa), two-loss Big 12 and ACC teams that either have impressive wins (Miami) or are simply smoking hot (Utah, Pitt) and three-loss ACC teams that still have a puncher’s chance at the conference title (Duke, SMU).

Tier (Group of) 5

James Madison (7-1, 27.7%) — def. Texas State 52-20
North Texas (8-1, 26.4%) — def. Navy 31-17
Memphis (8-1, 15.9%) — def. Rice 38-14
USF (6-2, 13.9%)
San Diego State (7-1, 8.9%) — def. Wyoming 24-7

There’s still a scenario in which, say, SMU wins the ACC at 10-3 but ranks behind a pair of one-loss Group of 5 champions, and the G5 ends up with multiple bids. That said, one G5 bid is still far and away the most likely scenario, and that race remains awfully interesting. JMU impressed enough in San Marcos last Tuesday that the Dukes jumped from 50th to 36th in SP+. They aren’t going to finish with a great résumé — their most impressive performance was a loss to Louisville in which they were tied in the fourth quarter before a fumble recovery touchdown put them behind — but they look the part enough that they should feel good about their chances if they finish 12-1 to win the Sun Belt, and the American Conference champ is 11-2.

Still, it’s clear the American winner, whoever it ends up being, is most likely to score the bid even if JMU’s odds are better than any single team.

What Tuesday’s rankings should look like

For the past couple of years, I’ve been fiddling with what amounts to a BCS-ish formula, derived half from the AP poll and half from a combination of both computer power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and computer résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and Strength of Record). With a few exceptions — Alabama over Florida State in 2023, SMU over Alabama in 2024 — it tends to adhere pretty closely to what the committee ends up deciding.

Tuesday’s rankings will be the first since the CFP committee began using “enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,” however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: 1) their AP poll ranking; 2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula; 3) their Strength of Record ranking and 4) their Résumé SP+ ranking.

This obviously adheres pretty closely to the tiers above, but it gives us a good idea of what to look for Tuesday night. If the committee really is taking strength of schedule or strength of record further into account — and for the record, I really don’t think it needed to — then we might expect teams that are more well regarded by the computers to win some arguments. Texas A&M would definitely rank ahead of Alabama in this case, and BYU might rank higher as well. Also, two-loss Texas and Vanderbilt would likely trump one-loss Louisville and Georgia Tech.

All in all, I think the top 11 on Tuesday should end up looking almost identical to the AP poll, while the spots from No. 12 to No. 21 could end up in pretty much any order.

A hypothetical playoff simulation, because why not?

Based on where teams are most likely to rank this week (via the BCS-ish rankings above) and which teams are currently most likely to win their conferences (per SP+), here’s what I’m going to call Week 11’s playoff bracket.

9 Texas Tech at 8 BYU
Winner plays 1 Ohio State

12 North Texas at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama

11 Louisville at 6 Oregon
Winner plays 3 Texas A&M

10 Notre Dame at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Indiana

We’ll see a shakeup following Week 11’s Texas Tech-BYU battle in Lubbock, but for now, this gives us Notre Dame’s first-ever trip to Oxford, a potential playoff rematch between Indiana and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals and another Alabama-Georgia playoff game (this time in the quarterfinals). Based on current SP+ rankings, it would also give us these national title odds based on 10,000 simulations:

Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%

And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.

(Please don’t stop watching.)

FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford

QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame

SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M

FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami

If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning head coach.

5 other random thoughts from Week 10

Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t a crime against humanity or anything, but after SMU tied the game with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback Cristobal paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by “Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad” rules in the 2020s.

But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he’s been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.

Holy (whistle) smokes (whistle), Arkansas (whistle). Generally speaking, penalties and penalty yards don’t correlate to wins and losses as much as you might think. Committing a lot of penalties can often signify that you’re properly pushing the limits from an aggressiveness standpoint, and of the 66 teams to have suffered more than 100 penalty yards in a game this season, 38 ended up winning the game.

It’s nice to know there are limits, however. Arkansas committed 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, the third most for any FBS team in any game over the last 10 seasons. Only Kansas (216 yards in a win over UNLV in 2023) and Northern Illinois (194 in a win over Eastern Illinois in 2017) can top that number. But while those teams still managed to win, Arkansas’ discipline ran out late. Mississippi State scored 17 points in the game’s final 11 minutes to overcome a 14-point deficit and win 38-35. If Sam Pittman hadn’t already been fired, he probably would be now. (And it probably goes without saying that interim coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t shined enough to justify hiring him full time, though I’m sure you can still find an Arkansas booster advocating for it.)

So many close SEC games. We can question whether the SEC has a team the caliber of Ohio State or Indiana this season, but we cannot question its commitment to competitiveness. The league featured six games Saturday, five were decided by one score — including both of its ranked-versus-ranked encounters — and the sixth was within one score with 12 minutes left. For the season, the league has had 43 conference games to date, with 26 decided by one touchdown or less. It’s been close enough overall that Arkansas somehow (A) ranks first in the league in points per drive in conference play and (B) is 0-5 in conference play.

Close games will define the rest of November, too. Texas A&M (5-0 in SEC play) has two road games with a projected margin of less than two points, and despite being pretty close to the finish line the Aggies have higher odds of losing two or more in November (27%) than reaching 12-0 (25%).

Alabama (5-0) has three conference games remaining, and all three are projected within single digits, two within one score. SP+ gives the Tide only a 25% chance of winning its four remaining games, with 26% odds of losing at least twice.

Georgia’s odds, meanwhile, are almost identical — the Bulldogs (5-1) have two projected one-score SEC games remaining (at Mississippi State, Texas), plus a one-score visit to Georgia Tech. The result: a 25% chance of winning out and a 30% chance of losing at least twice.

Texas (4-1) actually looked the part for most of Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns are projected underdogs in two of three remaining games (at Georgia, Texas A&M), and Arkansas is not a gimme. Odds of winning out: 15%.

Ole Miss (5-1) has the most navigable path of any major conference contender, with only Florida and Mississippi State remaining in SEC play. Odds of winning out: 54%. Then again, the Rebels lost to Florida last year, and the Egg Bowl lives for nonsense.

Colorado looks done done. Over its last two games against Utah and Arizona, Colorado was projected to lose by a combined 23.1 points. The Buffaloes instead lost by 81. Last week’s 53-7 loss to Utah was almost understandable in retrospect (the Utes just walloped Cincinnati, too), but they were equally moribund in Saturday evening’s home loss to Arizona. And based on a weighted average of recent performances (where the most recent game carries more weight), they are officially the team that is underachieving the most against current SP+ projections.

There are plenty of other teams staggering and/or falling at the moment – Syracuse, Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware, Maryland, Texas State, Bowling Green – but CU leads the pack. And if the Buffs can’t beat West Virginia in Morgantown this coming weekend, a 3-9 finish begins to look awfully likely. Would that increase the odds of Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?

DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber – he’s Michael Vick, after all – and he has struggled in year one, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this coming week), but it’s been a year of growing pains.

For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it’s been the exact opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and they haven’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought them to 6-3 and 54th overall. They’ve already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a tossup game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.

This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)

East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)

Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)

Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)

Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)

Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)

James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)

Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)

UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)

North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)

The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.

Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)

Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)

Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)

Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)

Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)

Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)

UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)

Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)

Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)

South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)

Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.

Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).

2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).

3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).

4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).

5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).

6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).

7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).

8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).

9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).

10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).

Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a Total QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.

Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.

Honorable mention:

• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).

• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).

• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).

• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).

• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).

• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).

• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).

• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).

Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)

We might be approaching a “Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman” game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.

My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.

Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.

3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.

4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez‘s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.

5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the “Call the ambulance … but not for me” meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.

6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short ​​Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.

On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.

play

Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal

Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal

8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.

9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.

10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.

11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.

12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.

13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.

14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.

15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.

16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.

17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).

18. Army 20, Air Force 17.

19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.

20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).

The midweek playlist

Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.

Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.

UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.