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2025 NFL season sim: Predictions, surprises, playoff teams

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  • Seth WalderSep 1, 2025, 06:30 AM ET

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      Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.

I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).

But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?

That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.

See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season

Both Super Bowl LIX teams miss playoffs

Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.

The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.

The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes‘ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.

The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.

Aaron Rodgers experiment fails, Mike Tomlin has first losing record

The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.

Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.

Broncos steal AFC West crown

The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.

Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.

The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.

Cowboys win surprise NFC East title

Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.

Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.

In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.

Colts win AFC South; Titans earn wild card

Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.

But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Ravens edge Bengals for AFC North title

With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.

It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.

The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.

Cardinals win a playoff game

With all the surprise NFC playoff misses, spots were available. And the Cardinals were one of the upstarts that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not great, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild-card berth, and the Cardinals made some postseason noise.

Arizona routed the NFC South champion Falcons 35-14. Playoff Josh Sweat sacked Michael Penix Jr. multiple times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t carry that momentum into their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their attempted game-winning drive stalled out in the final minute.

Saints get first overall pick, prompting Arch watch

Sometimes preseason expectations hold. FPI predicted the Saints to be the worst team in football, and they were just that. The easy schedule worked in their favor, too. New Orleans was tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but it earned the No. 1 pick on the schedule-strength tiebreaker.

Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would remain with Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints — Archie’s former team — earned the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning speeding up his NFL timetable began to grow.

No. 7 seed Buccaneers go on unlikely Super Bowl run

For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t quite match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay sat at 8-8 on the outside looking in at the playoffs — a game out of the NFC South and wild-card berths. The Bucs needed that final week to break their way, and it did.

The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to grab the last wild-card spot with a 9-8 record.

The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance. Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills.

In a wild NFC playoffs, five of six road teams won their matchups. Here’s how the overall postseason played out leading into the Super Bowl:

Wild-card round

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17

(AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13

(AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24

(NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9

Divisional round

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22

Conference championships

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13

Bills win Super Bowl LX

Bills Mafia, rejoice. Buffalo really did it. After coming up short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally burst through with a statement win.

Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second straight MVP award — no controversy this time — and the Lombardi Trophy was considered Buffalo’s to lose.

The Bills’ No. 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a plucky Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship Game — the last game ever in Highmark Stadium.

With snow flurries falling in true Buffalo fashion, the Bills hosted their fiercest challenger, the Ravens. Allen put on a top-tier performance, recording a 91 QBR and throwing a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills outdueled Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX.

The betting market pegged the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes on a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get closer, so Allen hardly needed to make big plays. Cook took home Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, trouncing Tampa Bay 55-23.

ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.

Northern Lights potentially visible across much of the UK

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There is a “decent chance” the aurora borealis will be visible across much of the UK on in the coming days, the Met Office has said.

Heighted solar activity could lead to the Northern Lights being visible further south than usual, with sightings possible with the naked eye.

Although the Met Office cautioned that solar forecasts can change rapidly, and factors such as cloud cover and light pollution will impact visibility.

But those lucky enough to have clear and dark skies could be rewarded “with a rare and memorable display”.

BBC Weather said the lights, formally known as the aurora borealis, would be visible across much of England and Wales away from western coasts.

As is usually the case, Northern Ireland and north east Scotland would have the best chance for clear spells of viewing, it said.

It also advised the public to head away from city lights for the best chance of seeing the Northern Lights and that if the lights were not visible – another way to potentially see them was to use a smartphone on night mode.

The Met Office forecasts that while there will be lots of cloud cover throughout the evening, the Midlands will be most likely to have clear skies, making it potentially one of the best place in the UK for a sighting.

Monday night could offer the best chance for a sighting, but the lights should still be visible throughout Tuesday night.

By Wednesday night no significant solar activity is currently expected, meaning less chance of seeing the Northern Lights.

“There’s a decent chance of seeing the aurora tonight [Monday] – it may be visible as far south as the Midlands (perhaps even further south)”, the Met Office said on social media site X.

The Northern Lights are caused by solar winds carrying charged particles interacting with the earth’s magnetic field.

The heightened chance of a UK sighting has been caused by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection, which is a “release of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona”, late on Saturday night.

Met Office space weather manager, Krista Hammond, said: “As we monitor the arrival of this coronal mass ejection, there is a real possibility of aurora sightings further south than usual on Monday night.

“While the best views are likely further north, anyone with clear, dark skies should keep an eye out.

“Forecasts can change rapidly, so we encourage the public to stay updated with the latest information.”

Trump demands drugmakers 'justify' COVID treatment success

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President Trump on Monday demanded drugmakers “justify” the success of their treatments for COVID-19 amid turmoil in his administration over vaccines and other health issues.

“It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs. Many people think they are a miracle that saved Millions of lives. Others disagree!” the president said in a post on Truth Social.

“With CDC being ripped apart over this question, I want the answer, and I want it NOW,” the president continued, referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The president ousted the director of the CDC last week amid reports of a showdown between the embattled agency head and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccines.

“I have been shown information from Pfizer, and others, that is extraordinary, but they never seem to show those results to the public. Why not???” Trump wrote Monday. “They go off to the next ‘hunt’ and let everyone rip themselves apart, including Bobby Kennedy Jr. and CDC, trying to figure out the success or failure of the Drug Companies Covid work.”

On Monday, former directors of the CDC rebuked Kennedy, who has a history of vaccine skepticism, over his leadership at the agency and his push to fire its director, Susan Monarez.

In an opinion piece for The New York Times, nine former CDC directors and acting directors offered a warning about the changes Kennedy has made at the agency, which they called alarming.

Demetre Daskalakis, the former leader of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, on Thursday said Kennedy had not been briefed by agency experts on measles, COVID-19 and the flu. 

“No one from my center has ever briefed him on any of those topics,” Daskalakis said on CNN.

“Perhaps he has alternate experts that he may trust more than the experts at CDC that the rest of the world regards as the best scientists in the areas,” he added.

Trump in his Monday social media post touted the effectiveness of Operation Warp Speed, the push during his first term to speed up vaccine development and distribution during the pandemic. And he said drugmakers “show me GREAT numbers and results, but they don’t seem to be showing them to many others.”

“I want them to show them NOW, to CDC and the public, and clear up this MESS, one way or the other!!! I hope OPERATION WARP SPEED was as ‘BRILLIANT’ as many say it was. If not, we all want to know about it, and why???” he added.

The Hill has reached out to Pfizer for comment.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Makes AI ASICs, Says Jim Cramer

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We recently published Jim Cramer Just Couldn’t Stop Talking About These 13 Stocks. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed.

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is a semiconductor firm known for its smartphone and data center products. The shares have gained 27% year-to-date as they have benefited from the bullishness surrounding AI. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is among the few companies capable of designing chips that can complement NVIDIA’s AI GPUs. Cramer discussed these chips, called ASIC, in his comments:

“Broadcom is going crazy David, what is that. . .

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Makes AI ASICs, Says Jim Cramer
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Makes AI ASICs, Says Jim Cramer

Previously, the CNBC TV host commented on Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)’s exposure to Apple and President Trump’s tariffs:

“But, I think that all of these companies you’re seeing there, like Broadcom, yeah they got exposure, but they sell to Apple, I mean, they make it in China, they sell it to Apple, that’s supposed to be okay.”

While we acknowledge the potential of AVGO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

Alexander Isak transfer: Liverpool sign striker in £125m British record deal from Newcastle

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Liverpool have signed striker Alexander Isak from Newcastle United for a British record transfer fee of £125m, with the Swede saying he “wanted to create history and win trophies” at Anfield.

Newcastle sources claim the deal could be worth as much as £130m with add-ons.

Sweden international Isak, 25, had a medical on Monday before signing a six-year contract.

Isak, who will wear the number nine shirt with the Reds, told the Liverpool website: “This is the next step for me in my career. I’m super happy that I’ve been given this chance and I’m very motivated to do something well with it.

“I want to create history. I want to win trophies. That’s ultimately the biggest motivation for me.

“This is the perfect place for me to grow even further and to take my game to the next level and help the team as well.”

Liverpool had an original £110m offer for Isak rejected in August but have now landed their first-choice target of the summer.

The protracted saga came to an end on the final day of the transfer window, with the Reds announcing the deal at 21:30 BST, two and a half hours after the window closed.

It follows Newcastle having signed Germany international striker Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart last week and Brentford forward Yoane Wissa in a £50m deal on Monday

However, Liverpool failed to complete a £35m deal to sign England defender Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace. The 25-year-old had a medical with the Reds, but Palace’s failure to sign a replacement meant the deal collapsed.

Trump to award Giuliani the Presidential Medal of Freedom

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President Trump announced Monday that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who served as his personal lawyer during high-profile legal battles over the 2020 election results, would receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the country’s highest civilian honor.

“As President of the United States of America, I am pleased to announce that Rudy Giuliani, the greatest Mayor in the history of New York City, and an equally great American Patriot, will receive THE PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM, our Country’s highest civilian honor,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

The president said more details on the timing of the award would come later. The honor is typically bestowed on individuals during ceremonies held at the White House.

The announcement came two days after Giuliani was seriously injured in a car crash in New Hampshire. The former mayor’s head of security said Giuliani’s vehicle was “struck from behind at high speed” while traveling on a highway.

Giuliani was transported to a nearby trauma center where he “was diagnosed with a fractured thoracic vertebrae, multiple lacerations and contusions, as well as injuries to his left arm and lower leg,” his head of security, Michael Ragusa, said in a statement to media outlets over the weekend.

He added that Giuliani was “in great spirits.”

Giuliani was released from the hospital on Monday afternoon, The New York Times reported, citing a friend of the former mayor.

Known as “America’s mayor” in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks in New York City, Giuliani played a central role in Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, though dozens of lawsuits filed in various states failed to change the outcome in Trump’s favor.

The former U.S. associate attorney general and U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York faced fallout from his efforts surrounding the 2020 election. Giuliani was permanently disbarred from practicing law in Washington, D.C., last year. Two Georgia election workers also won a $148 million defamation judgment against Giuliani, who reached a settlement in the case earlier this year.

The Hill has reached out to the White House for more details on the award announced Monday.

— Tara Suter contributed reporting.

James Fishback, CEO of Investment Firm Azoria, Is Listed as ‘Movant’ in Hearing

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James Fishback, a former Greenlight Research analyst and founder of the investment firm Azoria, is listed as a movant in the Cook hearing.

A movant is a party in a lawsuit or legal proceeding who makes a formal request to the court for a specific ruling or action.

Fishback has been an outspoken critic of Cook in recent days, appearing on Fox News to discuss the case. He was also present at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where he approached Cook using his cell-phone camera to record and repeatedly shouted “Governor Cook, why did you commit mortgage fraud?” He was escorted away by two security guards.

Ryder Cup 2025: Europe captain Luke Donald explains wildcard picks for Bethpage bear pit

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Donald wants to harness that sense of continuity to find the formula that can yield a first away win since the ‘Miracle at Medinah’ in 2012. To do that, the skipper is preparing his team to cope with an expected hostile atmosphere.

“Of course, remembering what we did in Rome is pretty special, having those memories, those feelings, about what we achieved together as a team,” he said.

“But I want to approach this from a different angle, a different set of eyes in terms of this as a different challenge. This is not going to be what Rome was like.

“We’re going into the bear pit.”

So the personnel might be virtually unchanged, but the approach will be altered. “We have to come at this with a really refreshed view of how we’re going to tackle it,” Donald added.

“Twenty months ago, when I was made captain again, this was my first thought. It’s like, what are the things that haven’t worked in the past away Ryder Cups, and how do we correct that?

“I’ve come at it from a different angle of communication with the players, what the environment requires and really doing a deep dive on that and the best practices.

“My goal as a captain is to create lasting memories with these players. We got to do it in Rome, and hopefully, we get to do it in New York, creating a week that they always remember.

“And I thought we did a pretty good job in Rome. So it’s a big task to try and make this week even better.”

Donald would not be drawn on whether he would have preferred his opposite number, Keegan Bradley, to have named himself as a playing captain.

“I’ve always tried to keep my leadership around things that I can influence and that was totally out of my control,” said the 47-year-old European skipper.

“We know, he’s one of their best players. And if he played, he was going to be strong.

“We also knew that if he decided to do that, it was going to be a lot to try and juggle both. But they seem to have many plans in place.

“He’s made his decision. He’s decided that he has plenty of talent to replace him.

“I know Keegan well. He’s a good friend of mine and I understand that he’s going to bring a strong passion, he’s going to try and get his troops pretty fired up.”

Now, though, we enter the phoney war; four long weeks of build-up that will see both teams gain competitive reps on either side of the Atlantic.

Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton play the Irish Open this week. They will join the rest of the team at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth the following week.

That is when the majority of Bradley’s line-up take part on the PGA Tour at the Procore Championship in Napa, California.

There will be plenty of talk in the intervening period, with neither side overly keen on being regarded as favourites for the Bethpage showdown.

Donald has already started. “Obviously, on paper, they’re very strong,” he noted. “That home advantage is pretty good. So, I still do believe we are underdogs.”

But, as expected, armed with experience to potentially upset the odds.

Listen to a golf special on BBC Sounds and Radio 5 Live from 21:00 BST on Monday, 1 September with Iain Carter, Oli Wilson and Trish Johnson analysing the teams.

Trump family’s World Liberty Financial token opens for trading

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The Trump family’s cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial has opened trading for its new digital currency, dubbed $WLFI, according to the company’s website.

“Big day – @WorldLibertyFi just launched the $WLFI token. This isn’t some meme coin, it’s the governance backbone of a real ecosystem changing how money moves,” Donald Trump Jr., President Trump’s eldest son and a co-founder of World Liberty Financial, said in a social media post on Monday.

Eric Trump, who also serves as co-founder of the venture, said in his own post on social platform X that with the launch of the token, “we’re setting a new standard for financial freedom; built on trust, speed, and U.S. values.”

“This is a huge moment for the future of money!” he added.

Trading of the digital currency exploded on Monday, with roughly $1 billion in tokens trading hands within an hour, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing data site CoinMarketCap.

The Trump family unveiled World Liberty Financial last year in the last few months of the president’s campaign, with the then-candidate coming out as a major proponent of the crypto industry.

World Liberty Financial announced in March that it brought in $550 million via two sets of token sales.

The Trump administration this year has issued a series of executive orders and regulatory shake-ups broadly heralded by the crypto industry, representing a major shift on digital currencies in Washington.

The cryptocurrency lobby has quickly widened its presence on Capitol Hill in recent months, according to disclosures filed in July, as lawmakers took their first swing at legislation to regulate digital currency.

Australia house prices climb in August as demand outstrips supply, Cotality says

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SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian home prices rose in August, driven by increased buyer demand and low levels of advertised stock, property consultant Cotality said on Monday.

Prices increased 0.7% in August from July to a median value of A$848,858 ($551,587.93), accelerating from a 0.5% gain the previous month, according to figures from Cotality, formerly CoreLogic.

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The August result was the strongest monthly gain since May 2024.

The rise was broad-based, with prices in Brisbane jumping 1.2% in August. Prices in Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, rose 0.8% while in Melbourne they were 0.3% higher.

Hobart, where prices fell 0.2%, was the only state capital to log a decline in the month, according to the data.

Buyer demand was spurred “by a lift in borrowing capacity, real wages growth, rising confidence and what is likely to be a growing sense of urgency as advertised stock levels remain tight”, Cotality said.

“Once again we are seeing a clear mismatch between available supply and demonstrated demand placing upwards pressure on housing values,” the company’s research director, Tim Lawless, said in a statement.

The August result was part of national home prices “gradually building momentum” since the country’s central bank began cutting interest rates in February, Cotality said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia in August cut interest rates for the third time this year and opened the door to more policy easing as inflation cooled.

($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Sam McKeith; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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