With less than a week remaining in the 2026 Winter Olympics, the stakes are just about as high as ever Monday.

The U.S. women’s hockey team beat Sweden in the semifinals, setting up a possible rematch against Canada in the gold medal game.

The U.S. will also look to keep the momentum going against Italy in women’s curling. The Americans are 4-1 in round-robin play.

In women’s monobob, Americans Kaillie Armbruster Humphries, Elana Meyers Taylor and Kaysha Love have their eyes set on a medal, with Armbruster Humphries looking to defend her Olympic title.

World silver medalists Minerva Fabienne Hase and Nikita Volodin lead by nearly five points in pairs figure skating as they head into the free skate Monday night.

Key events (all times ET)

MORE: Medal tracker | Full schedule of events | Olympics 101

Here’s a live look at the best moments from Monday’s Olympic action.

Formula 1’s new era was always going to bring questions, but its first week of serious running has raised more than most. Preseason testing in Bahrain has offered flashes of performance and plenty of data, yet little in the way of firm answers about how the sport’s new landscape is really shaping up.

On track, the stopwatch has told a shifting story, with different teams looking quick at different moments and no clear benchmark emerging amid a game of smoke and mirrors.

– F1 testing: Who’s posted the fastest times and most laps

Off the track, the uncertainty has been matched by unimpressed drivers and tension behind the scenes. Technical interpretations, competitive suspicion and safety concerns have all surfaced as the paddock tries to define the boundaries of the new rules. With one more test still to come, ESPN makes sense of a fascinating three days in Sakhir.

Who’s fastest?

Headline lap times in preseason testing are often misleading, but this year’s competitive picture has been made even murkier by new power unit regulations and, increasingly, a degree of politics at play.

Ask Mercedes who’s got the fastest package and they say Red Bull. Ask Red Bull and they say they’re fourth behind Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren.

Ferrari point to Red Bull and Mercedes as the teams ahead of them, while world champions McLaren are convinced all three of their aforementioned rivals have the edge.

On paper, F1’s latest generation of power units are remarkable things, capable of producing three times as much electrical power as their predecessors and harvesting twice as much energy around a lap. But in reality that equation means they spend most of a lap starved of energy, meaning simply pushing to the limit is no longer a guaranteed route to the fastest lap time as the battery will soon be depleted.

“It’s ridiculously complex,” seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton said. “I sat in a meeting the other day and they’re talking us through it — it’s like you need a degree to fully understand it.”

One person in the paddock who undoubtedly has the qualifications to get his head around the challenges at play is Williams team principal James Vowles, and like all the best engineers he was able to summarise it in a satisfyingly concise manner.

“Think about it this way,” he said, “in one braking zone, you can nearly fill the battery up, but in half a straight, you can deplete the entire battery.”

It’s no surprise, therefore, that “energy management” became the main talking point in Bahrain this week. Put simply, the more effectively you can harvest energy around the lap under braking and in corners, the more you have to spend on the straights and the faster your eventual lap time will be.

That can mean drivers are no longer pushing to the limit in corners in the knowledge that sacrificing a bit of lap time there will come with the benefit of gaining more time back on the straights. Figuring out how best to balance that equation, especially for a single flying lap, has been a steep learning curve for teams this week, and one that has resulted in a quick-shifting picture of who is actually fastest.

Mercedes insists Red Bull, which is using its own power unit for the first time, has found a way of deploying more energy on certain straights than any other team, with both team boss Toto Wolff and George Russell saying the advantage their rivals have found is worth as much as a second per lap.

“They’re not just a small step ahead,” Russell said. “You’re talking in the order of half a second to a second in deployment over the course of a lap, so it’s pretty scary to see that difference.”

McLaren’s Lando Norris, whose car is also powered by a Mercedes engine, added: “When someone just has a deployment advantage, that’s just a beautiful bit of lap time to have in your pocket. Without trying, you can just go quicker.”

But ask Red Bull’s technical director Pierre Wache if he feels his team is the benchmark and he points back at his rivals.

“We are not the benchmark, for sure,” he said. “We see clearly the top three teams as Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren. They are in front of us from our analysis, and we are behind.

“That is where we think we are at the moment. It is difficult to say about the other because the level of fuel they run, the level of power they run is difficult to say, but it’s currently our analysis and it could be wrong.”

Away from the top four teams, and underlining the view that the competitive picture is constantly evolving, Alpine managing director Steve Nielsen said his data has shown different power unit manufacturers looking strongest on an almost daily basis.

“Honestly, if you’d asked me that in Barcelona [at the first test] I would’ve probably said Mercedes is head and shoulders above the rest. If you’d asked me that on Wednesday [in Bahrain], I would probably have said Red Bull are the benchmark. If you’d asked me yesterday [Thursday], I would’ve said ‘wow, you want to see Ferrari’s long run.'”

Nielsen also stressed that all teams will have learned from each other over the week by analysing different approaches to deploying energy around the lap and will likely converge towards the best solutions as a result.

“I mean, we’re shameless plagiarists, all of us,” he said. “We’ll look at anything anybody else can do on the track, off the track, and if we like it, we’ll steal it. And looking at their speeds, cornering speeds, how they deploy, all of that stuff. We’re all doing it to each other.”

Combine those different approaches to energy deployment with all the other usual testing caveats, such as fuel loads and differing track conditions, and trying to read anything meaningful into the lap times is something of a fool’s errand. Some long run data from Friday suggested the Mercedes and Ferrari had the edge over McLaren, but it is only a small snapshot of a much wider picture that will likely change again when testing resumes in Bahrain next week.

Is it still F1?

If the new regulations are proving confusing for onlookers, the feelings from inside the cockpits are more clearcut. Four-time champion Max Verstappen has never been one to mince his words and didn’t hold back when speaking to the media on Thursday.

“As a pure driver, I enjoy driving flat out,” he said. “And at the moment, you cannot drive like that. There’s a lot going on.

“A lot of what you do as a driver, in terms of inputs, has a massive effect on the energy side of things. For me, that’s just not Formula 1.

“Maybe it’s better to drive Formula E, right? Because that’s all about energy efficiency and management. That’s what they stand for.

“Driving-wise, it’s not so fun.”

On the opposite end of the spectrum was Norris, who, possibly because Verstappen’s negative quotes were put to him and he felt the need to counter, played up the challenge presented by the new regulations.

“It’s a challenge but it’s a good fun challenge for the engineers, for the drivers,” Norris said. “It’s different, you have to drive it in a different way and understand things differently and manage things differently.

“But you still get to drive cars and travel the world and have a lot of fun. So, no nothing to complain about.”

Although not all drivers sided with one of the extremes being forwarded by Norris and Verstappen, all of them seemed to agree the 2026 regulations were certainly “different.” Just from standing trackside there are two fairly big changes to driving style that are both visible and audible. Some drivers (although notably not those with Ferrari engines) are reaching for first gear in Bahrain’s three slowest corners — Turn 1, 8 and 10.

By engaging first gear, the engine revs much higher than it would in second or third, helping to charge the battery while also keeping the turbo spinning at a higher speed to give optimum boost pressure on the exit of the corner and avoid a phenomenon known as turbo-lag.

“I think the one challenge that we’re facing with is using very low gears in the corners, so, to give an example, here in Bahrain, usually the first corner is a third gear corner,” Russell said. “In the previous generation, now we’re having to use first gear to keep the engine, the revs very high to keep the turbo spinning, this is probably the one thing that is quite annoying and isn’t that intuitive.

“Imagine when you drive to the supermarket in your car and you get to the roundabout and you put it in third gear to drive around the roundabout, but suddenly the person next to you says put it in first gear — everything is like wham, revving. For that reason you don’t go in the roundabout to the supermarket in first gear if you’re driving at a sensible speed, but this is the same thing, the car and the engine is designed to go around this corner in third gear, but because of the turbo and the boost and all of this you’ve got to keep the engine revs very high, which means you have to take first gear. The car isn’t really designed to do that, but we’re working around it.”

Another obvious change is slower speeds through fast corners. In some cases there is little to gain by deploying battery power in the high-speed corners, and so it makes more sense to lift a little.

Fernando Alonso, who has been racing in Bahrain since it first joined the calendar in 2004, said it has changed the approach to the high-speed Turn 12 from the cockpit of his Aston Martin.

“Here in Bahrain it has been historically Turn 12 that is a very challenging corner,” he said. “So you used to choose your downforce level to go through Turn 12 just flat, and so you would remove downforce until you are in Turn 12 just flat with new tyres.

“So it was then driver skill that was the decisive factor to go fast in a lap time.

“Now in Turn 12 we are like 50 kph slower because we don’t want to waste energy there and we want to have it all on the straights. So to do Turn 12 instead of going at 260 kph, we are at 200 kph — even our chef [in Aston Martin’s hospitality] can drive the car in Turn 12 at that speed. But you don’t want to waste energy because you want to have it on the straights.

“So I understand Max’s comments because from a driver you would like to make the difference in the corner, driving those 5 kph faster than the others, but now you are dictated by how much energy your engine will have on the next straight.”

It should be said that telemetry data showed Alonso was taking more speed into Turn 12 than his rivals and then needing to lift the throttle while the others stayed flat, but the point of taking slower speeds through the fastest corners still stands.

Power politics

With the added complication of the new rules has come a significant amount of paranoia among teams around what their rivals are doing. Heading into this week’s test, Mercedes’ interpretation of the rules regarding the engine’s compression ratio was a key topic and by the end of the three days it was no closer to being resolved.

The controversy centres around the reduction of the compression ratio from 18:1 in 2025 to 16:1 this year to make it easier for new power unit manufacturers to compete in the sport.

The regulations state that the compression ratio will be measured at ambient temperatures, and it seems Mercedes has found a way to comply with the test when the engine is cold but achieve a higher compression ratio — and therefore more power output — when the engine is running hot.

The FIA has declared its intention to “solve” the issue ahead of the first race of the season and avoid the situation being referred to the stewards or decided in court. One possibility is to change the rules so that the compression ratio limit of 16:1 explicitly applies when the engine is hot, but to push the change through it would require the support of the FIA, FOM and all of Mercedes’ power unit rivals.

There is a feeling among the rivals that Mercedes has been hiding its true performance in testing to prevent the FIA and FOM from siding against the German manufacturer.

“Mercedes are showing some very impressive things, sometimes, but I would say they are hiding a lot more,” Charles Leclerc said on Friday. “I would expect them especially to be a bit ahead of us.”

Verstappen took a more direct aim at Wolff’s assertion that Red Bull has the benchmark power unit.

“For me personally, it’s more like diversion tactics,” Verstappen said. “But that’s okay. I mean, I focus on what we’re doing here with the team. Because honestly, for us, there’s still so much to learn. This new ruleset is so complex that we just want to do our laps and just go from there, to be honest.”

Wolff claims any advantage is only worth “a couple” of horsepower and maintains the FIA was kept in the loop throughout the development of the engine. A change to the rules will need to be made ahead of the looming engine homologation deadline of March 1, and it is not yet clear what it would mean for Mercedes and its three engine customers, McLaren, Alpine and Williams.

Another issue up for debate ahead of the season opener in Australia centres around race starts. Following multiple practice starts by drivers this week in Bahrain, it became clear just how difficult it will be to make a clean getaway using the new power units.

Until the car is over 50km/h the regulations state the power unit cannot deploy any of its electrical boost, meaning the initial getaway is reliant entirely on the V6 turbo engine. Under the previous set of regulations an element of the power unit’s hybrid system, known as the MGU-H, was used to spool the turbo to provide the optimum boost pressure for the start, but the MGU-H was removed as part of the changes to the power unit this year.

As a result, the V6 engine now needs to be revved in advance to build up boost pressure and minimise a common phenomenon in turbocharged engines known as turbo-lag. During practice starts in Bahrain, cars could be observed revving hard for over ten seconds to build turbo boost before finally making their getaway.

There is a belief that the current start procedure — which sees five red lights illuminated at one second intervals before all five are extinguished and the race gets underway — will not provide enough time for drivers arriving at the back of the grid to prepare their turbo in time for a clean start.

The concern is that a significant variation in start qualities up and down the grid could result in collisions.

“We need to make sure that the race start procedure allows all cars to have the power unit ready to go because the grid is not the place in which you want to have cars slow in taking off the grid,” McLaren boss Andrea Stella said.

“This is of bigger interest than any competitive interest. I think all teams and the FIA should play the game of responsibility when it comes to what is needed in terms of race start procedure. I’m thinking about the timings, for instance, the timing of the lights, the timing before the lights.

“They need to be in the right place to make sure that, first of all, it’s a safe phase of the way we go racing.”

The issue is further complicated as Ferrari is believed to have opted for a smaller turbocharger to combat turbo-lag.

A report by The Race claims the Italian team initially raised the issue but was not listened to by its rivals and has since blocked a more recent attempt to change the start procedure.

Stella also raised concerns about overtaking and the possibility of collisions caused by drivers lifting and coasting along straights to harvest energy. He claims changes to the regulations to prevent such issues are “simple”, although those changes would likely be centered on the rules around harvesting and deploying energy, which some teams are clearly doing a better job at than others. All three of the concerns raised by Stella are expected to be discussed at next week’s meeting of the F1 Commission on Wednesday.

In short, far more will be at stake at the final preseason test than the relatively simple matter of who has the fastest car.

The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.

We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)

We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:

• Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 28 current teams

• Should be in: Teams tracking above the cutline, though their fates are not yet clear. 12 current teams

• Work to do: The truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 16 current teams

• Long shots: There is little — though not zero — chance they make the Big Dance as an at-large.

Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.

Note: All times Eastern.

Jump to a conference:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors

BIG TEN

9.8 expected bids; 8.8 at-large

Locks (5)

Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans

Should be in (4)

Wisconsin Badgers

Updated: Feb. 14, 7:17 a.m.

Fresh off of an overtime win at Illinois on Tuesday, the Badgers grabbed another Quadrant 1A win on Friday night, flat out dominating Michigan State at home. That latest victory was the Badgers’ third Quadrant 1A win of the season, which improves a résumé that now sits around 30th in the national consensus ranking (sixth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule gets a little bit better after one more Quadrant 1A opponent (Ohio State in Columbus) next week, and that — plus their recent résumé-boosting Ws — has boosted Wisconsin in the consensus at-large forecast from 79% to 96% in the past two weeks.

Next game: at Ohio State (Tuesday)

Iowa Hawkeyes

Updated: Feb. 14, 7:11 p.m.

Iowa was looking like a potential “lock” candidate after winning six in a row, but the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes still own a résumé in the mid-30s nationally, and they are borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings, both of which bode well for their tournament hopes. But their schedule gets more difficult, jumping from 63rd so far to ninth from here on nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI.

Next game: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)

Indiana Hoosiers

Updated: Feb. 10, 7:20 a.m.

Darling of the forecast models — which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team’s borderline top-40 résumé ranking — Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers’ fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them.

Next game: at Illinois (Sunday)

UCLA Bruins

Updated: Feb. 14, 2:54 p.m.

A recent stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Michigan rolled over UCLA by 30. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the mid-40s nationally (10th in the Big Ten), and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. If the conference gets 10 bids, the Bruins are currently in line for the last one, but difficult matchups against Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska remain.

Next game: at Michigan State (Tuesday)

Work to do (3)

Ohio State Buckeyes

Updated: Feb. 14, 10:21 p.m.

With a prime opportunity to raise its at-large chances even further against Virginia on Saturday in Nashville, Ohio State led by 11 early and was competitive throughout, but ultimately fell to the No. 15 Cavaliers. The Buckeyes still sit right on the bubble, ranking mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They are also 1-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. But they’re better than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. The main issue is that they have been unable to build consistent momentum at any point this season, following six of their past seven wins with a defeat.

Next game: vs. Wisconsin (Tuesday)

USC Trojans

Updated: Feb. 12, 7:14 a.m.

Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%. If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.

Next game: vs. Illinois (Wednesday)

Long shots

Washington Huskies

SEC

9.6 expected bids (8.6 at-large)

Locks (6)

Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats

Should be in (2)

Auburn Tigers

Updated: Feb. 14, 10:47 p.m.

Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers’ four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.

Next game: at Mississippi State (Wednesday)

Texas Longhorns

Updated: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.

In the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday’s slate, the Longhorns beat Missouri convincingly on the road to continue a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections. They graduate from “work to do” to “should be in” as a result, with the consensus forecast giving them a 77% at-large chance after the victory. The Longhorns are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 50 nationally), but their results are catching up with their predictive rating, which consistently has been in the top 40. They still face a tough slate with four of their final six regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids, but the Longhorns are in vastly better shape now than at any point in the past six weeks.

Next game: vs. LSU (Tuesday)

Work to do (3)

Texas A&M Aggies

Updated: Feb. 14, 3:15 p.m.

Texas A&M’s consensus at-large chances reached well into the 80% range after opening SEC play on a 7-1 run, but the Aggies have dropped four straight — including Saturday’s loss at Vanderbilt — and their odds have gone tumbling. They now check in below 70%, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” They are still projected by the BPI to clear 20 wins by regular season’s end, but they also rank ninth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be only a nine-bid conference — even if it’s more likely 10 — and the gap between them and the rest of the SEC’s “work to do” tier has basically vanished.

Next game: vs. Mississippi (Wednesday)

Georgia Bulldogs

Updated: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.

After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They have fallen from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the past three weeks and now sit 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. The recent jump in schedule difficulty has taken its toll, with plenty of tough matchups left.

Next game: at Kentucky (Tuesday)

Missouri Tigers

Updated: Feb. 14, 11:17 p.m.

On the heels of three straight wins (and four in five games) to revive what had been a flagging at-large probability, Missouri had a golden opportunity to add another résumé win over bubble nemesis Texas at home on Saturday. But the Tigers were outscored 52-37 after halftime, losing the critical matchup by 17 points. They rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries by most accounts. They do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and five against the BPI top 50, but even if their résumé is on par with Texas and Texas A&M, the Tigers are much lower in the predictive metrics — and play an even tougher remaining schedule per the BPI.

Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Wednesday)

Long shots

Oklahoma Sooners
LSU Tigers

ACC

8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large

Locks (5)

Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers

Should be in (3)

NC State Wolfpack

Updated: Feb. 14, 6:17 p.m.

After satiating our criteria for a “lock,” with a 98% consensus at-large chance after a run of eight wins in nine games (including a pair of Quadrant 1A victories), back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami have NC State back in “should be in” territory. The Wolfpack still rank inside the top 30 nationally in the predictive and résumé ratings, including sixth on the résumé list in an ACC tracking for eight bids. But they also face a significantly tougher remaining schedule (fourth hardest in the conference) than the ACC’s other bubble hopefuls.

Next game: vs. North Carolina (Tuesday)

SMU Mustangs

Updated: Feb. 14, 4:13 p.m.

Just when the Mustangs seemingly bounced back from consecutive losses to Louisville and NC State with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, they faltered late as road favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half lead to lose for the third time in five games. Still, they rank seventh in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the conference (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 71st-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket were set today with an 86% consensus at-large chance. But their tournament chances are not as high as they were a few weeks ago.

Next game: vs. Louisville (Tuesday)

Miami Hurricanes

Updated: Feb. 14, 6:17 p.m.

The Hurricanes’ chances had dipped after a trio of recent losses, but three straight wins have coach Jai Lucas’ team back on the rise, with back-to-back résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina and at NC State. The Hurricanes have a top-40 résumé quality nationally (eighth in the ACC), and their consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 69th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four).

Next game: vs. Virginia Tech (Tuesday)

Work to do (2)

Virginia Tech Hokies

Updated: Feb. 14, 4:05 p.m.

Coming off a huge road win over a Quadrant 1A foe in Clemson on Wednesday, Virginia Tech ran out of gas against Florida State on Saturday, getting outscored 48-20 over the final 17:24 to lose by 23 at home. The Hokies still have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that resides just outside the top 40. But conditional at-large chances below 30% suggest they are in serious limbo without additional résumé boosters.

Next game: at Miami (Tuesday)

California Golden Bears

Updated: Feb. 14, 1:53 p.m.

Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”

Next game: vs. Stanford (Saturday)

Long shots

Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Syracuse Orange

BIG 12

7.4 expected bids (6.4 at-large)

Locks (6)

Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars

Should be in (1)

UCF Knights

Updated: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.

With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really comes down to who could be the seventh bid. The Knights remain in control of that slot despite three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but their grip is loosening. As a result of this string of defeats, they are no longer tracking for more than 20 wins and have fallen outside the top 30 in the résumé average (though only one other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50). Good news for the Knights is that they face the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference.

Next game: vs. TCU (Tuesday)

Work to do (2)

TCU Horned Frogs

Updated: Feb. 14, 2:40 p.m.

After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs responded with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. Their case is interesting: Although they sit with consensus at-large chance in the 40% range, they have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State), and the chance to add another coming up against UCF, despite playing the Big 12’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule (53rd hardest nationally). They are building a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team.

Next game: at UCF (Tuesday)

West Virginia Mountaineers

Updated: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.

West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers’ chances at an at-large bid around 25%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks.

Next game: vs. Utah (Wednesday)

Long shots

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona State Sun Devils

BIG EAST

3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)

Locks (3)

UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats

Should be in (0)

None

Work to do (1)

Seton Hall Pirates

Updated: Feb. 11, 9:27 p.m.

Just when the season seemed to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his team with six losses in eight games, the Pirates outlasted Providence on Wednesday in a game with exactly one lead change — midway through the second half. They still have a steep hill to climb, sitting slightly below 20% at-large chances in the forecast composite, and ranking outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win (against NC State). An at-large bid will be hard to argue for if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, though the Pirates have a few more high-profile chances left to make their case.

Next game: at Butler (Sunday)

Long shots

Creighton Bluejays

OTHERS

Locks (3)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)

Should be in (1)

Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)

Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.

Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 32nd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 84% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.

Next game: at Seattle (Wednesday)

Work to do (5)

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)

Updated: Feb. 14, 7:41 a.m.

The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? After Arizona lost earlier this month, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a nonpandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron still ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 336th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got that much closer to running the table on Friday, cruising at home against Ohio. Tuesday’s game against UMass is the RedHawks’ lowest-probability remaining hurdle, per Bart Torvik.

Next game: at Massachusetts (Tuesday)

Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)

Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.

The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch, as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos’ chances had been on the rise after a recent stretch of nine consecutive wins (and 13 in 14 games), but a tough back-and-forth loss to Gonzaga on Saturday dropped their consensus at-large chances to 66%. They own the 41st-best résumé ranking and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s but are projected to finish with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s fate may rest on the Feb. 25 rematch at Saint Mary’s, and how much the selection committee values head-to-head wins.

Next game: at San Francisco (Saturday)

San Diego State Aztecs (MW)

Updated: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.

The Aztecs beat Nevada on Saturday to capture their third straight win game but are still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 45th nationally in the résumé rankings and their consensus at-large chances are 65%. The conference could feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best Mountain West team (New Mexico at 43%), San Diego State would figure to be in decent enough shape if it keeps winning.

Next game: vs. Grand Canyon (Tuesday)

New Mexico Lobos (MW)

Updated: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.

Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant with their consensus at-large odds sitting below 50%. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.

Next game: vs. Air Force (Tuesday)

VCU Rams (A-10)

Updated: Feb. 14, 8:25 p.m.

VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the 25-30% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Friday). However, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-to-high 40s nationally), and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins, so they can certainly strengthen their case. With a 78-67 victory at Richmond on Saturday, the Rams have now won nine in a row and 14 of 16.

Next game: vs. George Washington (Tuesday)

Long shots

Boise State Broncos (MW)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)

Glossary of terms

• Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.

• Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).

• Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.

• Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.

The 2026 NBA All-Star Game, taking place at the Intuit Dome near Los Angeles, tipped off Friday with a plethora of superstar players arriving for a jam-packed weekend.

Some fresh new faces of the league got things started with the Rising Stars showcase Friday. With No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg out through the All-Star break with injury, the young troupe was headlined by Rookie of the Year contender VJ Edgecombe, who took home MVP honors.

On Saturday, the league’s top-tier talents demonstrate their skills in the 3-point contest, Shooting Stars competition and slam dunk contest. Most notably, Damian Lillard took home the 3-point contest despite an Achilles injury that has kept him out the entire season. Team Knicks (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Allan Houston) followed up Lillard’s performance by winning the Shooting Stars competition before the Miami Heat‘s Keshad Johnson won the slam dunk contest.

Finally, on Sunday, three star-stacked teams will take the stage in a new format that rosters American players against international players. Can Victor Wembanyama lead Team World against Kevin Durant and Team Stripes? Or will Anthony Edwards spoil the fun leading Team Stars?

Our NBA insiders gave a sneak preview of what to watch heading into the 2026 NBA All-Star Weekend, including who they pick to win each event.

Expert picks were voted on by a panel of NBA insiders.

Previews: Rising Stars | Saturday skills | USA vs. World tournament
Saturday’s takeaways | Saturday’s results

All-Star Saturday’s takeaways

Overall takeaways

Damian Lillard’s triumphant return to the NBA stage captured the essence of what All-Star Weekend has always been about: Entertaining the fans and doing it with some flair.

Lillard was last seen on the court clutching the back of his leg during the NBA playoffs last season, knowing his Achilles tendon was ruptured when he was a Milwaukee Buck.

The last thing anyone expected was him winning his third 3-point contest title less than nine months later, and doing it back in that Portland Trail Blazers uniform he’s become so synonymous with.

He defeated Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker and Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel in the finals to take home the trophy and tie Larry Bird and Craig Hodges for most 3-point contest wins.

In the aftermath, he spoke about doing this for the fans, prompting a roar from the still-arriving crowd.

As has become routine over the last decade, the 3-point contest brings out the best names, storylines and drama — relative to the perpetually underwhelming Slam Dunk Contest because the stars won’t agree to compete.

Miami Heat second-year forward Keshad Johnson was giddy to be there and used every bit of his 15 minutes of fame to etch his name in history with a dunk contest victory, beating San Antonio Spurs rookie Carter Bryant. Bryant had some flair of his own, but didn’t have enough energy to put down his final dunk — which ranked high in difficulty.

The New York Knicks contingent of Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Allan Houston and Rick Brunson took home the Shooting Stars trophy with a last-second win over a group that featured Knueppel, Hawks forward Jalen Johnson and former NBA player Corey Maggette.

The day felt a bit awkward given the early start on the west coast, but the crowd was engaged by the end, even if there weren’t big stars delivering on the growing atmosphere. Perhaps it’s something the NBA, forever willing to tinker with its midseason showcase, will take a look at before next season in Phoenix. — Vincent Goodwill

Slam dunk contest

The Miami Heat’s Keshad Johnson looked happiest to be at the dunk contest — an event that sometimes lacks energy as the premier event of All-Star Weekend — on Saturday night and perhaps that was fitting, as he eventually walked away from the trophy.

The second-year forward defeated San Antonio Spurs rookie Carter Bryant in the final, when Bryant couldn’t convert a creative between-the-legs, over-the-head dunk. The two advanced to the final over Los Angeles Lakers center Jaxson Hayes and Orlando Magic guard Jase Richardson.

Richardson had a scary moment when he fell flat on his back during a dunk attempt, getting a bit stuck on a 360 dunk. Luckily, he popped back up and completed his next chance — nearly capturing the spirit of the dunk contest his dad, Jason, did as a two-time winner of the contest in the early 2000’s.

Johnson brought out rapper E-40 in his introduction and ultimately leapt over him while cupping the ball on his first dunk, surprising many in the crowd who hadn’t seen or heard much from him before.

And even though it took him a couple of tries in the final, he put his last dunk away with ease, earning a close to perfect score from the judges.

It put the pressure on Bryant, who couldn’t complete his attempts in the allotted time before putting away a basic dunk just so he could register a score.

In the end, Heat czar Pat Riley stood to his feet while Johnson danced in celebration as the winner. — Goodwill

Shooting Stars

Team Knicks had its work cut out for it, with Team Cameron (Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson, Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel and former NBA player Corey Maggette) hitting a bevy of half-court shots to put the pressure on Allan Houston, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns to beat the clock and hit deep shots of its own. Team Knicks needed four half-court shots to win, and Towns unleashed from 30 feet to bring the team closer, while Brunson played the finisher to clinch the Shooting Stars competition.

“I felt very confident in our team, especially Allan Houston,” Towns said afterward.

The NBA has tried various versions of this, at times using WNBA players and most recently, deploying a skills competition that didn’t return after last year’s debacle in San Francisco.

This competition had a twist, with Knicks assistant coach Rick Brunson, Jalen’s father, delivering passes to the shooters. Houston, now in the Knicks’ front office, was one of the most prolific 3-point shooters during his NBA days and showed his skills from midrange, while the current Knicks hit from deep to seal the victory. — Goodwill

3-point contest

The 3-point contest came down to two repeat winners and one new kid on the block — it did not disappoint.

Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard won for the third time in the last four years — becoming the third three-time winner since the competition started in 1986 — to thwart the Phoenix Suns‘ Devin Booker from winning his second and Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel from winning his first.

This win might have been the most impressive of his three, as Lillard entered the shootout despite not playing a game all season for the Blazers as he recovers from a torn Achilles.

“To get some competition, feel a little pressure, get in front of the fans again is a great experience,” Lillard told NBC on the court after receiving the trophy.

Booker went last in the final round and had a shot at beating Lillard’s score of 29, but he missed his final three “money ball” shots — which would have been worth two points apiece — to stall out at 27 points and fall two points short of Lillard. — Dave McMenamin

3-point champion: Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers)
Shooting Stars champion: Team Knicks (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Alan Houston)

Knueppel and Queen usher in the next wave of Rising Stars

There will be a Cooper Flagg-shaped void in this event, with a foot sprain sidelining 2025’s No. 1 pick for the duration of the weekend. Plus, former No. 2 pick Alex Sarr will be absent from Friday’s faceoffs after sustaining a right hamstring strain, which will keep him out for two weeks. The game should still be a fun spotlight for the strong 2025 draft class, with Kon Knueppel, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe all on different teams. Stephon Castle, reigning Rookie of the Year, is one of the top second-year players involved. Originally, I would have picked Flagg’s team to win the mini-tournament, but with him sidelined, I suppose I’ll take Team Vince, which includes Edgecombe, Derik Queen and Matas Buzelis. Whether I’m right or wrong, I’m willing to bet history won’t remember in this case. — Jeremy Woo

Game 1: Team Melo 40, Team Austin
Game 2: Team Vince 41, Team T-Mac 36
Game 3: Team Vince 25, Team Melo 24

Winner: Team Vince

Celebrity takeover!

Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The celebrity game returns with familiar faces on the court, but what stands out this year is the fact that two current NBA governors will participate — the Phoenix Suns‘ Mat Ishbia and the Charlotte Hornets‘ Rick Schnall, who have a combined age of 103.

However, history says when it comes to the celebrity game, age is just a number. Former U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan routinely showed up while playing in his late 40s/early 50s (he won MVP in 2014 at 49).

NFL star wide receivers Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown will take the court, too, as well as ESPN’s own NBA insider Shams Charania. Luckily, the trade deadline is behind us, meaning Charania can play phone-free. — Anthony Gharib

Introducing the 2026 @NBAAllStar #RufflesCelebGame rosters

🏀 Friday, Feb. 13 | 7p ET | ESPN

More: https://t.co/wCR9iDfnJB pic.twitter.com/RMttC7dOmg

— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) February 3, 2026

Legendary team-ups, high-flying dunks and Dame Time for All-Star Saturday

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)

Can Spida spoil Dame Time?

Any of the eight 3-point contestants could get hot for a minute and produce the winning score. But based on each participant’s 3-point percentage on wide-open 3s this year, according to NBA Advanced Stats, the favorites should be Donovan Mitchell (50% on wide-open 3s), Norman Powell (49%) and Jamal Murray (48%). Bobby Portis, Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Maxey are in the lower 40s, while Devin Booker is all the way down at 31%.

The eighth contestant is the wild card: Damian Lillard hasn’t played an NBA game since tearing an Achilles in the 2025 postseason. But Lillard won this event in 2023 and 2024, and he could become the first three-time winner in the 21st century. (Larry Bird and Craig Hodges each won three times in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively.) — Zach Kram

Expert picks: Damian Lillard

New faces and a family affair for the dunk contest

This isn’t the most star-studded field in the dunk contest’s history, and three of the four contestants have scarcely dunked in NBA games. Jaxson Hayes is a seven-year veteran with his fair share of slams from the center position, but second-year forward Keshad Johnson and rookies Carter Bryant and Jase Richardson have recorded single-digit dunk tallies this season.

At least there’s star lineage in this field. Richardson’s father is Jason Richardson, who won back-to-back dunk contest crowns in 2002 and 2003 — a few years before Jase was born. — Kram

Expert picks: Keshad Johnson

When you wish upon a shooting star(s)

In place of the skills challenge, the NBA is bringing back the shooting stars competition, which previously ran from 2004 through 2015 and featured three-person teams: a current NBA player, an NBA legend and a WNBA player.

There’s no WNBA presence in the renewed competition, with a second current player joining the three-man teams instead. Two aspects of this year’s teams stand out: Team Harper — with Ron Harper as the NBA legend and Dylan and Ron Jr. as the current NBA players — offers a compelling family element, while first-time All-Star Jalen Johnson‘s presence on Team Cameron is ironic, given that Johnson controversially left Duke University in the middle of his freshman season to focus on his preparation for the draft. — Kram

Expert picks: Team Knicks

International vs. homegrown? What to watch in the All-Star game

Sunday, 5 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)

In its latest attempt to inject some life into the NBA’s midseason showcase, the league is leaning into NBC’s Olympic coverage by deploying a Team USA versus The World format. Sadly, though, the three-team round-robin tournament has already lost some significant participants, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Stephen Curry ruled out for the All-Star Game, with others to potentially follow.

Still, there’s at least some hope this format could inspire some interesting moments this weekend. The World roster features only one guard (Jamal Murray), and he’s the only player below 6-foot-8. This also could be the final All-Star appearance for LeBron James, so perhaps he’ll show up to play, wanting to go out with a bang. Either way, it will serve as another referendum on Adam Silver’s ongoing attempts to salvage the event into something more competitive to watch. — Tim Bontemps

Game 1: Stars vs. World
Game 2: Stripes vs. Game 1 winner
Game 3: Stripes vs. Game 1 loser
Game 4: All-Star Championship

Expert picks: Team World