Welcome to The Playbook for Week 4, which kicked off Thursday with the Seahawks at the Cardinals.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

MIN-PIT | WAS-ATL | NO-BUF | CLE-DET | TEN-HOU | CAR-NE | LAC-NYG
PHI-TB | IND-LAR | JAX-SF | BAL-KC | CHI-LV | GB-DAL | NYJ-MIA | CIN-DEN

Projected score: Steelers 19, Vikings 19

Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf

Fantasy scoop: As expected, Mason was the Vikings’ feature back with Aaron Jones Sr. sidelined last week. The veteran back was on the field for 35 of 44 snaps (80%) prior to sitting out the final 14 plays of the blowout win. Mason was effective as a rusher (16-116-2) but didn’t see a single target. Limited receiving work will remain detrimental to Mason’s fantasy ceiling, but heavy volume and effectiveness as a rusher will keep him in the weekly RB2 mix. He should be in lineups against a Steelers defense that allowed 100-plus rushing yards to Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.

Shadow Report: Despite facing off with talented Chicago, Atlanta and Cincinnati WR rooms, the Vikings have surrendered the fewest catches and fantasy points to wideouts this season. Rome Odunze (15.7 in Week 1) is the only WR to reach double-digit fantasy points against them. This week, Metcalf and Calvin Austin III should be downgraded against Byron Murphy Jr,, Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah and slot/S Joshua Metellus.

Over/under: 37.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 51% (Lowest)

Projected score: Commanders 24, Falcons 20

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Deebo Samuel

Fantasy scoop: Week 3 gave us our first look at the Washington backfield since Austin Ekeler was ruled out for the season. It was a three-man weave, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (eight carries and one target on 21 snaps), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (11 carries on 21 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries on 14 snaps) all involved. The three backs split 12 passing routes almost evenly. Croskey-Merritt has the highest ceiling of the three, but he’ll need to see more work, especially as a receiver (three career targets) and remains no more than a deep-league flex. McNichols’ impressive TD run could earn him more work, but he and Rodriguez are no more than end-of-bench holds.

Shadow Report: Terry McLaurin and A.J. Terrell appear to be long shots to play this week, but expect Terrell to shadow Washington’s top receiver if both are active. Terrell shadowed Mike Evans in Week 1 and has a history of traveling with most clear No. 1 perimeter receivers. That’s the case for McLaurin, who has aligned out wide on 86% of his routes this season. Though Terrell showed well against Evans in Week 1, he hasn’t consistently been detrimental to opposing top receivers. A healthy McLaurin can be started as usual.

Over/under: 44.2 (9th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 62% (10th highest)

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson

Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid is off to a hot start, having opened the season with 14.8 fantasy points (more than he had in a single game all last season) and, most recently, delivering a career-high 17.6 points against the Dolphins in Week 3. On the one hand, there’s reason for pessimism that this is sustainable, as Kincaid has played only 51% of the snaps (down from 54% last year) and his 16.5% target share, while solid, is also down from last season’s 19.0%, when he finished 19th in fantasy PPG. On the other hand, Kincaid has already matched his career high in touchdowns (two) and his three end zone targets are tied for the position lead and are one off his prior career high. Perhaps Kincaid is headed for a Year 3 breakout, but Buffalo’s spread-it-around attack suggests a return to earth is likely in the cards. Consider Kincaid a fringe TE1.

Shadow Report: Bills receivers are tough to trust, but we’re upgrading them against a Saints pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season. Keon Coleman (89% perimeter) and Joshua Palmer (70%) stand to benefit most, as they’ll see a ton of Isaac Yiadom and Kool-Aid McKinstry.

Over/under: 48.2 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 93% (Highest)

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinshon Judkins, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Fantasy scoop: With three weeks in the books, one team has two top-20 scorers in fantasy points at tight end: the Browns. Third-round rookie Harold Fannin Jr. sits 12th and David Njoku is five points behind in 19th. Njoku has yet to clear 40 yards or 9.0 fantasy points in a game, but perhaps got pointed in the right direction with a season-high seven targets (23%) in Week 3. Fannin started hot with 63 yards on nine targets in his NFL debut, but he’s totaled just 73 yards on nine targets over his last two outings. Both players are on the field often (Njoku has played 82% of the snaps, compared to 66% for Fannin), but a Cleveland offense that sits 30th in EPA is unlikely to sustain two fantasy-relevant tight ends. The veteran Njoku remains the preferred fantasy option, but he’s dipped to more of a fringe starting option. Fannin is, at best, a bench stash and a quality dynasty hold.

Over/under: 44.5 (8th highest)
Win probability: Lions 85% (2nd highest)

Lineup locks: Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Henry

Fantasy scoop: Henry exploded for an 8-90-2 receiving line on 11 targets against the Steelers on Sunday. The 29.0 fantasy-point performance was the second-highest of his career (30.0 in Week 6 back in 2019). Henry did post a dud in Week 2 (9 yards on three targets), but he also showed well in the season opener (66 yards on eight targets) and his 21% target share is up slightly from 2024, when he finished 16th among tight ends in fantasy PPG. Henry’s two TDs match his season-long total from an unlucky 2024, and it appears his strong connection with Drake Maye isn’t going away. Henry is back on the TE1 radar and is a solid starter against Carolina.

Shadow Report: The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the fewest to the perimeter. Kayshon Boutte (81% perimeter) and Mack Hollins (86%) should be downgraded against Carolina boundary corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, whereas Stefon Diggs (53% slot) is in a better (but not easy) spot against Chau Smith-Wade inside.

Over/under: 41.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 52% (14th highest)

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey

Fantasy scoop: Najee Harris (Achilles) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) are both sidelined, which opens the door for rookies Hampton and Skattebo to take on larger roles. With Harris limited to 11 snaps Sunday, Hampton was on the field for 63 of 80 offensive plays, compared to just six for new backup Hassan Haskins. The rookie posted career-high marks in carries (19), targets (seven), receptions (six), touches (25) and yards (129), while also scoring his first NFL touchdown. Haskins (74 career touches) and presumably Kimani Vidal (48) will handle some change-of-pace work, but Hampton is well positioned for a featured role as a rusher and receiver moving forward. He’s a lineup lock and has top-10 upside.

Skattebo, meanwhile, has impressed in consecutive games. After totaling 59 yards and one TD on 13 touches in Week 2, the rookie went for 121 yards and a score on 16 touches Sunday night. Skattebo’s long-term outlook isn’t clear, as he was working behind Tracy prior to the latter’s injury, but it’s possible Skattebo will lock down the lead role with continued strong play. Of course, at least until Tracy returns, Skattebo is on the RB2 radar, and that’s the case this week despite facing a Chargers run defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs.

Over/under: 44 (10th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 78% (4th highest)

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, A.J. Brown, Emeka Egbuka

Fantasy scoop: Mike Evans (hamstring) is out this week, but Chris Godwin Jr. is expected to see his first game action since last year’s season-ending ankle injury. With Evans and Jalen McMillan both out, Godwin is seemingly well positioned for a sizable role, but it’s likely that he’ll be somewhat limited in his first game in nearly a year. Of course, Godwin can’t be completely overlooked, as he was averaging 19.7 fantasy PPG when healthy last season, which was second best among receivers. He’s best viewed as a flex against the Eagles, whereas Egbuka’s hot start makes him a lineup lock.

Over/under: 49.2 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 55% (11th highest)

Lineup lock: Nico Collins

Shadow Report: Expect L’Jarius Sneed to shadow Collins this week, as he did against Courtland Sutton in Week 1 and Davante Adams in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, and Sneed is off to a slow start, with Tennessee having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Collins should be valued as a solid WR1 as usual.

Shadow Report: If Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique) is able to play this week, he’s likely to shadow Calvin Ridley. Houston’s top corner traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 (Adams put up 7.2 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans in Week 2 (he produced 10.6 points) and was shadowing Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 3 prior to the injury (shadowed by Stingley and Kamari Lassiter, Thomas totaled 7.5 points in the game). Already struggling this season, Ridley is no more than a risky WR3/flex. Note that he’ll likely draw the Lassiter shadow if Stingley is out.

Over/under: 38.5 (15th highest)
Win probability: Texans 76% (5th highest)

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tyler Warren

Fantasy scoop: Daniel Jones isn’t a lineup lock just yet, but he’s getting close. After delivering top-five fantasy performances in both Weeks 1 and 2, Jones came back to earth a bit last week (15.8 points) but still managed an 11th-place finish. He’s yet to clear one passing TD in a game but is racking up passing yards (816 yards, ranks third) and, whereas he’s lacking rushing yardage (55), he has a trio of rushing TDs. Jones is playing well and his dual-threat ability is enough to make him a fringe starter. He’s streamable this week against a Rams defense that allowed 29.0 points to Jalen Hurts last week.

Over/under: 47.6 (5th highest)
Win probability: Rams 53% (12th highest)

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Brian Thomas Jr.

Fantasy scoop: It’s not often that a cornerback injury affects a teammate wide receiver’s fantasy value, but that’s what’s happening with Travis Hunter. The second-overall pick in April’s draft, Hunter’s route participation (75%) and target volume (eight) was terrific in Week 1, a game in which he played just 10% of the defensive snaps. However, when starting perimeter corner Jarrian Jones went down with an injury in Week 2, Hunter stepped in and played 60% of the defensive snaps, which limited him to 59% route participation and six targets on the other side of the ball. With Jones barely seeing the field in Week 3, Hunter played 69% of the defensive snaps and was limited even further on offense (58% of the routes and two targets). It’s unclear how much Hunter will play on defense this week, but considering he’s yet to clear 33 yards or 9.3 fantasy points in a game, he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups. Unless you’re in an IDP league, leave him on your bench against the 49ers.

Over/under: 45.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 63% (8th highest)

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Another week, another Mark Andrews conversation. After the veteran tight end totaled 7 yards on four targets during the first two weeks of the season, Andrews exploded for 91 yards and two TDs on six targets on Monday night. Andrews’ playing time didn’t change from Weeks 1-2, but Jackson looked his way more often. The big day helps reestablish Andrews as a viable fantasy option, but major “dud” risk remains, especially if Isaiah Likely is back in the fold this week. Much like in the second half of 2024, Andrews should be viewed as a TD-dependent, fringe TE1.

Over/under: 49.8 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 67% (7th highest)

Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Tre Tucker exploded for eight catches, 145 yards and three touchdowns on nine targets last week. The big game was about as shocking as they come considering that Tucker averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game while playing 88% of the Raiders’ snaps last season. Of course, the massive day is hard to ignore, especially considering that he remains a full-time player (92% snap share), scored a TD in Week 1 and saw eight targets in Week 2. Perhaps a crash back to earth is coming, but it’s also possible Tucker — a 2023 third-round pick — is on the verge of a Year 3 breakout. Consider him a flex option in a terrific matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed a league-high six TDs to receivers this season. Speaking of which …

Shadow Report: New week, same story. We’re upgrading all Raiders receivers (Meyers, Dont’e Thornton Jr. and the aforementioned Tucker) against an injury-plagued Chicago pass defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers. We’re also upgrading Bears receivers Odunze, Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus against the Raiders’ Kyu Blu Kelly, Darnay Holmes and Eric Stokes cornerback trio. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers.

Over/under: 48.3 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Bears 62% (9th highest)

Projected Score: Packers 27, Cowboys 20

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Tucker Kraft

Fantasy scoop: With CeeDee Lamb out for a few weeks, Pickens and Ferguson are lineup locks. With Lamb limited to six snaps on Sunday, Pickens posted a 5-68-1 receiving line on nine targets (oddly, he posted a 5-68-1 line on 10 targets the week prior). It’s a tough matchup (Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards despite facing the fifth-most pass attempts), but Pickens’ clear path to a large target share cements him as a WR2.

Ferguson, meanwhile, currently paces all tight ends in targets, catches and fantasy points. He’s recorded at least 12 targets, nine catches and 78 yards in consecutive games (a feat accomplished only 15 times by a tight end since 1978). Ferguson hasn’t scored a touchdown since he had three in a playoff game against Green Bay in 2023, but regression to the mean is sure to hit in short order. Perhaps this will be the week, considering Green Bay has allowed the third-most catches and yards to tight ends this season.

Shadow Report: Upgrade the Packers’ wide receivers (Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks) against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to the perimeter. Doubs (89% perimeter) and Golden (75%) will see a ton of Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam out wide, with Wicks (58% slot) inside against either DaRon Bland (if back from injury) or Reddy Steward.

Over/under: 47.3 (6th highest)
Win probability: Packers 73% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Jets 22, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Jaylen Waddle has found the end zone in consecutive games, and his two scores on the season already match his total from 2024. That’s the good news. The concern here is that Waddle’s 18% target share, while up slightly from last season, is well below his 22% share during his first three NFL seasons (he finished all three 21st or better in fantasy PPG). Waddle remains a key piece of a Miami offense that will have to throw the ball plenty, so while he’ll need more than the five to six targets he’s seen during Weeks 1-3, the boost in work near the goal line (three end zone targets) is enough to keep him in the WR3 mix. He should be in lineups against the Jets in Week 4.

Over/under: 43.8 (11th highest)
Win probability: Jets 51% (15th highest)

Projected score: Broncos 26, Bengals 17

Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Ja’Marr Chase, Courtland Sutton

Fantasy scoop: Chase Brown is off to a horrendous start, having totaled only 93 yards and one TD on 47 carries (2.0 YPC) and 43 yards on 11 targets (3.9 YPT). There’s still hope here, as Brown has played 67% of the Bengals’ snaps and has handled a massive 80% of the team’s called runs. We did see a bit more of Samaje Perine and rookie Tahj Brooks on Sunday, though the one-sided game certainly contributed to the switch to more of a three-man rotation (Brown played 24 of the first 37 snaps). Brown has enough competition in the RB2 tier that he lost his “lineup lock” designation this week, but he does have a lighter matchup against a Denver defense that allowed 29.5 fantasy points to Jonathan Taylor in Week 2 and 24.9 to Omarion Hampton last week.

Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is a strong bet to shadow Chase this week. The standout corner has already traveled with Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr. and Quentin Johnston this season, with the trio averaging 9.9 fantasy PPG in those outings. Surtain shadowed Chase in a Week 17 meeting between these teams last season, aligning on him on 43 of his 56 routes (29/33 perimeter, 14/23 slot). Chase posted a strong 9-102-0 line on 15 targets in the game (most of it away from Surtain). Tee Higgins, meanwhile, was shadowed by Riley Moss and went off for 11-131-3 on 12 targets (he should expect to see Moss again this week). Of course, those big games came with Joe Burrow (not Jake Browning) under center, so this should be viewed as a tough spot for Chase. Higgins has the better matchup and stands to benefit.

Over/under: 43.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 80% (3rd highest)

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. — The No. 1 player in the world looked anything but on Day 1 of the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black.

Scottie Scheffler came into this event with the expectation that he would dominate as he has done on the PGA Tour and the majors all year. Instead, the three-time major winner went winless in both sessions Friday and is now 2-4-2 all time in the event. He has not won a full point since 2021, when it was played at Whistling Straits.

“When you’re the No. 1 player in the world, you have a day that maybe it wasn’t his best, normally you bounce back,” U.S. team captain Keegan Bradley said. “We are not worried about Scottie Scheffler.”

Playing with J.J. Spaun in the afternoon four-ball, Scheffler was not as sharp as he typically is from tee to green and looked confused multiple times on the greens, missing putt after putt.

“We gave ourselves plenty of opportunities,” Scheffler said. “It really just came down to me not holing enough putts.”

The most striking result, however, came in the morning, when Scheffler and foursomes partner Russell Henley lost 5 and 3 to Ludvig Åberg and Matt Fitzpatrick.

“We just didn’t hole enough putts early. We had some chances,” said Scheffler, who will play with Henley again in Saturday morning foursomes. “I think the putts just didn’t fall.”

Putting was a much-discussed topic among the American players who struggled Friday. Bryson DeChambeau, who played with Justin Thomas in the morning foursomes and Ben Griffin in the afternoon, also lost both of his matches.

“They made everything,” DeChambeau said. “I felt like I was clutch when I needed to be, but … there were so many putts that just didn’t go in for us that went in for them. Luck is on their side right now.”

Bradley cited the number of putts the Europeans made several times, as well. And while he did insert Cameron Young into the foursomes lineup in place of Thomas as a change Saturday, the rest of those pairings that lost Friday morning, including Collin Morikawa and Harris English (who fell 5 and 4 to Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood), will be teeing it up again in the morning session.

“We’re sticking to our plan,” Bradley said. “We’re not going to panic and make those sort of mistakes. We’re going to stick to what we know.”

According to DataGolf, the Morikawa-English pairing is the worst potential tandem of any of the 132 possible combinations for either team based on strokes gained.

“We came in here this week with a plan, and the players are prepared for that plan,” Bradley said. “We look at the data. We look at the strokes gained. In the morning session, we just didn’t make any putts. Really, hardly any at all. Everything else was pretty good.”

Bradley said his message to the team after Friday harped on the fact that only 28% of the total points have been played for and that there’s still plenty of golf ahead. But this is the fourth-largest deficit the U.S. team has faced on Day 1 of a Ryder Cup on home soil, according to ESPN Research. Of the three previous times, only one has resulted in the American team coming back to win: 1999 at Brookline.

“Listen, we knew this was going to be difficult. We knew this was going to be tough,” Bradley said. “We didn’t expect to come in here and this not be a difficult week. … What a stage, what an opportunity that they have to go out there tomorrow and prove to everybody that now they are down, now they have got to go catch up. I like that.”

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.

It is clearly big news for the NFL world that the New York Giants have decided to promote rookie Jaxson Dart into the starting QB role, sending veteran QB Russell Wilson to the bench. The move should have repercussions for the fantasy football world as well, not so much that managers in standard formats will trust Dart, but that second-year WR Malik Nabers should see more and better targets downfield. Dart may or may not turn the New York offense into a juggernaut, but at least everyone will be watching.

Don’t be surprised if … Giants RB Cam Skattebo leads all rookies in fantasy points

Yep, all eyes are on Dart, but Skattebo is poised to make a greater impact for fantasy purposes. There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. In a typical fantasy league, perhaps two thirds of them may be on rosters. Things are different at running back. Fantasy managers are desperate for relevant options, especially as bye weeks approach. Next week, for example, Atlanta Falcons star Bijan Robinson and Green Bay Packers star Josh Jacobs will not play. Many/most fantasy managers who have Skattebo will have him active in their lineups.

I think many Skattebo investors should have him active this week. We can debate the competency of New York’s offensive line and, perhaps, the team’s playcalling, but it may not matter with Skattebo, the Arizona State product secured in the fourth round. He is an explosive, powerful runner who invites contact and punishes defenders. Sure, all running backs need space to run, but Skattebo is built different. Expect at least 60 rushing yards each week and some receptions. He caught six of eight targets in Week 3. If Dart throws his way, this is a potential RB1 option.

It didn’t take long for Skattebo to outshine last year’s starter Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder), now out for the next few weeks. Tracy, who rushed for 839 yards as a rookie but didn’t seem fit for the long-term role (he played WR in college), is averaging 3.1 yards per rush this season. OK, so the offensive line is bad. Skattebo averages 4.4 yards per rush, so it wasn’t that bad. Devin Singletary is a competent backup, but not special in any way. Skattebo runs over and through defenders. He is an RB2 option this week, and moving forward, potentially more, regardless of opponent.

Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• Why would Skattebo thrive behind a rough offensive line when Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty cannot? Jeanty will improve. Expect this to be the week — I guess I will say it every week — Geno Smith throws the former Boise State star some passes. It is alarming and incomprehensible that Jeanty has three receiving yards on six targets in three games. I would play Skattebo over Jeanty, but I would play them both.

• Being that I roster Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry on more than a few teams, seeing him fumble in each of the first three games of the season hasn’t been fun. Henry ran all over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, but better defense and game flow have kept his numbers down since then. Henry fumbled three times over the past two seasons combined. This shouldn’t be happening. To most potential investors, the risk in Henry is his age. They think this is the end. I don’t think so. This fumbling problem will cease. Henry will rush for more than 100 yards this week against the Chiefs, thus restoring confidence.

The theory goes that Mayfield, averaging a mere 205 passing yards per game so far (last season he averaged 265 yards), may struggle against the similarly unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles because WR Mike Evans (hamstring) is out and Chris Godwin Jr., assuming he plays, won’t be on the field for close to every snap. Rookie Emeka Egbuka is great, former Giant Sterling Shepard is serviceable, but Mayfield (biceps), who has been limited in practice this week, will be compromised and under heavy pressure from the Philly defensive front.

I think we should be well past the point of doubting Mayfield, a top-10 fantasy QB in each of his two Buccaneers seasons. He faced the Eagles twice in that span (once in the playoffs), and he passed for 684 yards and five touchdowns, adding another rushing score, with nary a turnover. The Buccaneers seem to have Philadelphia’s number, especially at home. The Eagles have one good cornerback. It’s going to be hot. It may not matter who plays at wide receiver, I see points being scored. It’s up to Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to score more, but both QBs are worth it.

Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• Minnesota Vikings backup Carson Wentz set a record Sunday when he started for his sixth NFL franchise over the past six seasons (Eagles, Colts, Commanders, Rams, Chiefs, Vikings). It is a dubious mark, to be sure, but the experienced Wentz may be a better option to lead this “defense first, run the football a close second” team. “Rookie” J.J. McCarthy (technically a sophomore, but he missed last season) was a turnover machine in two games. I’m not saying his ankle injury is a ruse, but the Vikings were pleased with how Wentz handled the offense Sunday, because it worked. RB Jordan Mason did most of the lifting. Why would the Vikings alter this when McCarthy returns to health? Wentz isn’t exactly Favre-ian for durability, but he can be instructed to take care of the football. He may keep the starting role until an injury pops up, thus becoming superflex-relevant.

• I don’t think the Jacksonville Jaguars would bench Trevor Lawrence anytime soon, mainly because of his contract, but also because there isn’t an enticing backup. Nick Mullens is 30. He isn’t Jaxson Dart. Honestly, if Mac Jones was still there, I do wonder. Anyway, Lawrence looks awful so far, completing 55.8% of his passes and with an interception in each game. Star WR Brian Thomas Jr. has seven catches on 25 targets! Lawrence isn’t throwing deep, either, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. I don’t like giving up on players I liked three weeks ago (mainly because of Thomas and Travis Hunter), but perhaps there is an injury we don’t know about?

Don’t be surprised if … TE Tucker Kraft leads the Packers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches this season

Kraft enters the Week 4 road game against a sputtering Dallas Cowboys defense — if only they still rostered a significant pass rusher — leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. This isn’t a revelation, as he led the Packers in TD receptions last season, and he finished just behind Jayden Reed in receptions. Kraft finished 10th in TE scoring last season, and some expected even more production this season. Despite a quiet outing against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 — few Packers thrived, and Kraft was dealing with a sore knee — Kraft looks like the safest bet in Green Bay’s passing offense.

We aim to be positive when declaring surprising predictions, but one could easily evaluate Kraft’s potential emergence as QB Jordan Love’s top option as an indictment of the young wide receivers the franchise has accumulated in recent drafts. In fact, the two are connected. Kraft, a third-round selection in 2023, is doing the best work, especially after the catch, where he really shines. Love is not the high-volume thrower he was in 2023, and this is by team design, but when he throws, Kraft boasts a 19% target share.

It is quite noteworthy that former Packer (and future Hall of Famer) Davante Adams is the most recent player in Green Bay to surpass the rather low total of 900 receiving yards in a season, doing so with the help of QB Aaron Rodgers in 2021. The last player other than Adams to get there was Jordy Nelson in 2016. Perhaps no Packers will reach 900 receiving yards this season, including Kraft. Love isn’t throwing much. Reed (collarbone) may not play again until November. Rookie Matthew Golden isn’t seeing many targets. Ordinary Dontayvion Wicks isn’t gaining many yards.

Perhaps the young, enticing Packers wide receivers embarrass the terrible Cowboys secondary Sunday night, but I may still view it as an aberrant performance, not something likely to stick for three more months. The Packers want Love to play it safe and avoid turnovers, not throw the football downfield and risk a change in possession. Kraft tends to be the open receiver in the intermediate passing game. I don’t see Love approaching QB1 status and no Packers WR looks like more than a WR4. Kraft, however, is a safe TE1.

Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave caught 87 passes during the 2023 season, back when QB Derek Carr was among the top 10 in pass attempts and completions. Olave is pacing for more than 100 receptions this season, with second-year QB Spencer Rattler at the helm. Can this continue? Leaving aside Olave’s history of concussions, we hope it can. Olave isn’t doing much (and can’t) with all these short receptions at only 4.6 yards per target and 2.3 yards after the catch. Still, the catches count, and it may make him a potential WR1 option, even without major yards or touchdowns.

  Finally, why do we assume Rattler cedes the starting role to rookie Tyler Shough this season? Everything Rattler throws is a short pass, because that’s what the Saints want. He’s performing as expected.

• San Francisco 49ers sophomore Ricky Pearsall has surpassed 100 receiving yards twice in three weeks, and it hasn’t mattered who plays QB. Pearsall ranks fourth in yards per reception, but the fellows ahead of him (Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Tyquan Thornton) are not high-volume options. Pearsall may be. Things should only improve when Brock Purdy plays, and Pearsall looks like a definite 1,000-yard option and potential WR2.

• CeeDee Lamb will not be catching Dak Prescott fastballs for the next week or more, and who knows if he will be compromised even after he returns. It is hardly outlandish that we project TE Jake Ferguson will continue to lead the position in targets and receptions, since he has 26 of the former and 22 of the latter in just the past two games. WR George Pickens gets into the end zone, Ferguson gets them into the red zone. This can work for fantasy. I downgraded Prescott for this week because he faces the Packers, but not long term, with or without Lamb. Perhaps Ferguson is this season’s Evan Engram, circa 2023 (114 receptions, 4 TDs). That would be immensely valuable.